QuantPartners: Morning Note 11/09/22 - $SPX
No Red Wave. House Looks To Turn To GOP But Not Called Yet. Senate Too Close To Call. Stocks Modestly Lower.
Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 3828.11 (higher by 0.56%) from Monday at 3806.80 (higher by 0.96%). The overnight high of 3848.75 was hit at 8:45 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3812 at 5:20 a.m. EDT, a range of 37 points high to low which is below the recent range of 45. At 7:15 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500 was lower by -8 points at 3827.50 which is -0.21%.
Breaking News: Meta (META) to layoff 11,000 workers. (CNBC)
Earnings Out After The Close:
Beats: VVNT +0.58, MRTX +0.39, IOSP +0.33, HALO +0.23, ICHR +0.23, NEWR +0.19, NTRA +0.19, RAMP +0.13, INO +0.12, SILK +0.12, MRC +0.11, AXON +0.11, OSUR +0.10, SFM +0.10, PRI +0.08, ARLO +0.08, ARRY +0.08, MASI +0.08, OXY +0.07, HCAT +0.06, ALRM +0.05, GXO +0.05, JKHY +0.05, NOG +0.05, AMC +0.05, WTI +0.05, ZD +0.05, AKAM +0.04, ENV +0.03, GDRX +0.03, BIRD +0.03, DDD +0.03, ABCL +0.03, AFRM +0.02, CLNE +0.02, HRTX +0.01, SEER +0.01, MODN +0.01, GO +0.01.
Flat: GEN +0.00, NHI +0.00, DOX +0.00.
Misses: NVAX (3.74), EBS (1.14), VSAT (0.74), NVTA (0.43), FNF (0.39), AMRS (0.36), SUPN (0.33), DAR (0.27), DIS (0.26), IAC (0.26), PRA (0.26), SG (0.22), UPST (0.16), TWO (0.15), FLYW (0.14), LMND (0.12), LCID (0.10), LFST (0.10), PLUG (0.08), EOLS (0.07), PUBM (0.07), XENE (0.06), DV (0.05), BLNK (0.04), CARG (0.04), OPK (0.03), GMED (0.02), ANGI (0.02), CRCT (0.01), NWSA (0.01), SRC (0.01), KIND (0.01).
Capital Raises:
New SPACs launched/News:
Athlon Acquisition Corp. (SWET) announces plans to redeem all outstanding common stock included in IPO at ~$10.06/share after failing to consummate business combination.
Secondaries Priced:
TDW: Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock. 3,987,914 shares @$30.25
Notes Priced of note:
ZTS: Pricing of $1.35 Billion of Senior Notes.
Common Stock filings/Notes:
BXRX: Filed Form S-1 Common Stock and Warrants.
TDW: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.. 3,987,914 shares.
Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
LCID: Entered into an "at-the-market" program and announces additional investment of up to $915 million by an affiliate of PIF.
VRAX: Closing of $3.8 Million Private Placement.
Mixed Shelf Offerings:
AVRO: Filed Form S-3.. $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
CHRS: Filed Form S-3.. $150 Million Mixed Shelf.
NPCE: Filed Form S-3.. $150 Million Mixed Shelf.
OMGA: Filed Form S-3.. $200,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
TCRX: Filed Form S-3.. $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
Debt Filing/Notes:
BBBY: Announces Privately Negotiated Senior Notes Exchange and Concurrent Private Placement of Common Stock.
Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.
News After The Close:
After Hours:
Trading Up: RAMP +15%, ARRY +14%, DV +11%, HCAT +8%, AXON +8%, OSUR +7%, BIRD +7%, SFM +7%, ABCL +6%, ICHR +5%, NTRA +5%, XP +4%, GXO +4%, HALO +4%.
Trading Down: UPST -25%, AMRS -23%, CARG -20%, AFRM -17%, EBS -13%, LCID -11%, PUBM -11%, LCID -11%, AVID -10%, SG -10%, ARLO -10%, GDRX -10%, DIS -7%, JKHY -6%, OPK -6%, KIND -5%, VSAT -5%, DAR -4%, TDW -4%.
News Since The Close:
Meta’s (META) Mark Zuckerberg Says He Is Accountable as Company Preps for Mass Layoffs. (WSJ)
Coinbase Global (COIN) releases statement; says "We are in a strong capital position. Our public, audited financials confirm that we do not have a liquidity problem." (Release)
AMC stock tumbles after reporting 12th consecutive quarterly loss. (MarketWatch)
Disney (DIS) misses on profit and key revenue segments, warns streaming growth could taper. (CNBC)
CarGurus (CARG) stock dives as fourth-quarter forecast comes up well short of expectations. (MarketWatch)
Assets Under Management (AUM) - October: CNS $80 billion +$773 Million.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
Aadi Bioscience (AADI) Announces Planned Leadership Transition.
Argo Group (ARGO) Mails Letter to Shareholders Highlighting the Strength of its Refreshed, Highly Qualified Board.
CEVA, Inc. (CEVA) Announces CEO Transition Plan,
Elme Communities (ELME) Announces CFO Succession Plan.
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) Announces CEO Transition.
Independence Realty Trust (IRT) COO Ella Neyland to depart.
Mirati Therapeutics (MRTX) appoints Alan Sandler, M.D., to the position of executive vice president and chief medical officer.
Quanergy (QNGY) Confirms Delisting Notice from NYSE.
Tata Motors (TTM) announces intent to delist its American Depositary Shares (ADS) from the NYSE after January 2023 and terminate its ADS program.
Wolverine Worldwide (WWW) Announces New Brand Group Structure and Leadership Roles to Support Future Growth.
Buyback Announcements or News:
Aflac Incorporated (AFL) (see Dividend)
Capri Holdings (CPRI) authorized new $1 billion share repurchase program.
Magna (MGA) may purchase up to 28,445,000 Magna Common Shares representing ~10% of its public float.
XP increases share repurchase authorization by R$1 billion.
Stock Splits or News:
Ampio Pharmaceuticals (AMPE) Announces Fifteen-to-One Reverse Stock Split.
Babylon (BBLN) Announces 1-for-25 Reverse Share Split.
Conformis, Inc. (CFMS) Effects 1-for-25 Reverse Stock Split.
Dividends Announcements or News:
Aflac Incorporated (AFL) Announces 5.0% Increase in the First Quarter 2023 Dividend to $0.42 per share, Increase in Shares Authorized for Repurchase by 100 million common shares.
Fidelity National (FNF) intends to pay quarterly cash dividends on its common stock at an initial aggregate amount of approximately $100 million per year.
National Bank (NBHC) increases quarterly dividend $0.02 to $0.25 per share.
Phillips 66 (PSX) Outlines Plans to Increase Shareholder Distributions.
Permian Resources (PR) declared an initial quarterly cash dividend of $0.05 per share.
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.
S&P 500 -5, Dow Jones -82, NASDAQ -9, and Russell 2000 -4. (as of 8:11 a.m. EDT). Europe lower and Asia lower as well. VIX Futures are at 26.30 from 25.05 yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 25.38 from 24.35 yesterday. Gold, Silver and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures are lower with Natural Gas lower as well. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.128% from 4.212% yesterday. Bitcoin is at $17,775 from $19,740 Tuesday morning and is lower by -2.65% this morning.
Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):
Daily Positive Sectors: Basic Materials, Technology, Industrials, Utilities, Financial of note.
Daily Negative Sectors: Energy of note.
U.S. stock indexes finished ahead on Tuesday as investors awaited the outcome of midterm elections, which are expected to result in a divided government. Stocks rallied in the morning before the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite briefly fell into the red in afternoon trading. They rallied again before market close, though they pared their earlier gains. The S&P rose 21.31 points, or 0.6%, to 3,828.11. The Nasdaq Composite added 51.68 points, or 0.5%, to 10,616.20. (WSJ)
Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
Wednesday After the Close: RIVN, MFC, CPNG, STE, ATO, FICO, JAZZ, U, TTEK, SGFY, CELH, APP, WYNN, BROS, SWCH, LNW, BMBL, KGC, ROG, MQ, PAAS, RNG, JXN, JAMF, ENS, IPAR, NUVA, VZIO, TTEC, TTGT, FORG, IRBT, APPS, ZNTL, STKL, CDE, RXT, GDOT, NVTS, EGIO, RPAY, RDFN, COOK, VUZI, PETQ, ZIMV, PLBY of note.
Thursday Before the Open: AZN, BDX, BAM, TDG, MT, NICE, WRK, TPR, XRAY, USFD, RL, CAE, DDS, IAA, YETI, PRMW, UTZ, SGHC, WRBY, SIX, DGII, SBH, DCBO, PSFE, HIMX, SSYS, SHCR, KELYA, HNST of note.
Earnings of Note This Morning:
Beats: HGV +0.47, IONS +0.37, PFGC +0.28, ZNTL +0.25, CPRI +0.25, COHR +0.21, LTH +0.20, FVRR +0.16, NOMD +0.14, RSKD +0.11, IMXI +0.09, SPTN +0.08, TRP +0.08, CRBG +0.07, PERI +0.06, KRNT +0.05, STER +0.03, TTD +0.03, VERX +0.02, HBI +0.02, GIB +0.01, OLPX +0.01, WEN +0.01.
Flat: HL +0.00, CEVA +0.00.
Misses: BGNE (1.62), WD (0.65), DHI (0.46), MSGE (0.34), CGC (0.21), BHG (0.20), MIDD (0.18), SEAS (0.14), ALE (0.11), TBLA (0.08), WWW (0.07), RDNT (0.07), TPG (0.07), EBIX (0.06), DIBS (0.05), AG (0.05), HR (0.04), VCEL (0.04), PAR (0.03), RCI (0.02), COCO (0.02), STWD (0.01).
Still to Report: RBLX, TGNA.
Guidance:
Positive Guidance: KSS, AXON, ARRY, OSUR, GO, SFM, SILK, FLYW, MODN, VVNT, RAMP, RSKD, SPTN of note.
Negative Guidance: NVAX, CARG, DOX, SG, AFRM, MASI, GDRX, UPST, ENV, ARLO, EBS, PUBM, DDD, LFST, AMRS, AVID, AKAM, TTD, WWW, BHG, DIBS, HBI, TBLA of note.
Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:
Gap Up: ARRY +20%, RAMP +18%, OSUR +10%, HCAT +9%, SFM +9%, ABCL +9%, ICHR +9%, AXON +8%, NVTA +8%, BIRD +7%, SILK +6%, DV +6%, GXO +5%, PERI +5%, CRCT +5%, ZD +5%, MRTX +4%, HALO +4%.
Gap Down: AMRS -26%, UPST -26%, CARG -21%, AFRM -15%, EBS -14%, GDRX -11%, NWSA -9%, LCID -8%, AVID -8%, DIS -8%, PUBM -7%, TDW -6%, JKHY -6%, ARLO -5%, MARA -5%, XENE -5%, COIN -5%, SG -5%, SNCR -4%, AMC -4%, WD -4%, WTI -4%, CEVA -4%.
Insider Action: NSA sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. GTLB sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: TSLA, META, DHI, DIS, AFRM, UPST, AMC, LCID, AXON, SFM (CNBC)
5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens Wednesday. (CNBC)
Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg Lead Story: GOPs Gain Is Short Of Wave as Biden Dodges Worst-Case. (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg Most Read Story: Rise of Russian hardliners sows fears of Putin's elite. (Bloomberg)
Wall Street Journal Review of Mid-Terms. (WSJ)
New York Times Review of Mid-Terms, Congress Hinges on Closely Watched Races. (NYT)
Opinion: Why the GOP Rout Fell Short. (NYT)
TikTok slashes ad sales target by $2 billion as tech slows. (Bloomberg)
Mid-Term Results Update sees House likely to turn to GOP with Senate too close to call. (CNBC)
Election takeaways - Trump's bad night, DeSantis good night. (Bloomberg)
U.S. Mortgage Rates pop to 7.14% which is the highest level since 2001. (Bloomberg)
Elon Musk sells $3.95 billion share of Tesla (TSLA) as he buy Twitter. (CNBC)
Moving Average Update:
Score inches up 3% to 57%.
Geopolitical:
President’s Public Schedule:
None of note.
Economic:
MBA Mortgage Applications, 7:00 a.m. EST
30-year Mortgage Rate Actual: 7.14% Vs 7.06% Previous
Mortgage Applications (Wow) Actual: -0.1% Vs -0.5% Previous
Composite: -0.1%, Purchase: +1.3%, ReFi: -3.5%
Wholesale Inventories, 10:00 a.m. EST
EIA Petroleum Report, 10:30 a.m. EST
The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest is due out after the close for data from October 12th through the 27th. During that period, the S&P 500 rose 6.44%.
Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:
Federal Reserve New York President John Williams, 4:00 a.m. EST
Very Important That Fed Delivers 2% Inflation.
Inflation is Clearly Far Above Fed's Long Run Goal.
Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin, 11:00 p.m. EST
M&A Activity:
Chart Industries, Inc. (GTLS) to Acquire Howden.
Greif (GEF) to Acquire Lee Container for $300 million.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
Sellside Conferences:
BAC Securities A.I. and Disruptive Tech Conference
BMO Capital Markets BioPharma Spotlight Series: Oncology Day 2022
Cowen Post-Election Forum
Deutsche Bank Global Space Summit 2022 (11/09/22-11/10/22)
Goldman Sachs Global Natural Resources Conference 2022
JP Morgan Digital Twin Seminar Series 2022 (11/09/22-11/10/22)
Morgan Stanley Global EdTech Conference 2022
Morgan Stanley P&C Fixed Income Investor Conference 2022
Raymond James Insurance Conference
Stifel Midwest One-on-One Growth Conference 2022 (11/09/22-11/10/22)
Sidoti & Company LLC Micro-Cap Virtual Investor Conference 2022 (11/09/22-11/10/22)
Truist West Coast Bus Tour
Company Meetings: ADP, CAH, FTAI, MCAE
Fireside Chat: WES.
Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ARWR, BCOV, DFS, FRC, OKTA, PCOR, PSX
R&D Day:
Esperion Therapeutics (ESPR) R&D Day 2022.
Industry Meetings:
AARC Congress 2022 - Respiratory (11/09/22-11/12/22)
21st Annual Energy Litigation Conference 2022
Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades: