QuantPartners: Morning Note - 10/10/23:

President Biden To Address Nation On Israel Hamas Conflict. Stock Futures Remain Positive.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday higher by 0.63% at 4335.66 from Friday higher by 1.18%  at 4308.50. The overnight high was hit at 4381 at 5:00 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 43669.50 at 2:20 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 15 points as of 7:20 a.m. EDT. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 27.80 from 30.20 down from a peak of 31.50 on 8/15 but getting close to retaking that high.  The average for May-September average was 20.96 from 21.10 in May through August and the September average was 19.87. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by +5.50 points which is +0.13% at  7:20 a.m. EDT.

Fun Fact: How often should you wash your jeans? Levi Strauss CEO settles the debate with a surprising answer. (CNBC)

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Earnings Out After The Close: None of note.

Capital Raises:

• New SPACs launched/News:

  • Integrated Rail and Resources Acquisition Corp. (IRRX) Announces Extension.

• Notes Priced of note:

  • ECPG: Pricing of Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes Offering.

• Common Stock filings/Notes:

  • BUR: Issuance of new ordinary shares in connection with LTIP.

• Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:

  • FSM: Pays down $40 million of debt from increased cash flow.

  • UROY: Announces U.S.$30 Million Bought Deal Financing.

• Tender Offer:

  • NYC: American Strategic Investment Co. Announces Response to Bellevue Capital Partners, LLC Tender Offer.

• Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:

  • PD: Proposed Private Placement of $350 Million of Convertible Senior Notes. (MarketWatch)

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Holiday:

• After Hours: 

  • Trading Up: AKRO +21%, LXRX +17%, H +6% of note.

  • Trading Down: VTYX -20%, PD -6% of note.

• News Items After the Close:

  • Truist (TFC) is in talks to sell its insurance business for $10 billion. (Semafor)

  • Gartner Says Worldwide PC Shipments Declined 9% in Third Quarter of 2023. (GartnerGroup)

  • Stellantis (STLA) announced due to UAW strike actions that Stellantis  layoff an additional 570 employees (total of 640).

  • Fluor (FLR) Receives Five-Year Contract Extension for Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program.

  • Assets Under Management - Monthly Reporting: CNS $75.2 billion - down $4.9 billion.

• Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • Enerflex (EFXT) appoints Preet Dhindsa as interim Chief Financial Officer.

  • Farmmi (FAMI) Regains Compliance with Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Requirement.

  • Hyatt Hotels (H) will replace National Instruments (NATI) in the S&P MidCap 400. (MarketWatch)

  • IM Cannabis (IMCC) Announces the appointment of Uri Birenberg as Chief Financial Officer.

  • Mobilicom Ltd. (MOB) announces extension to voluntarily delisting date.

  • Mistras Group (MG) announces leadership changes; CEO departs.

  • Poseida Therapeutics (PSTX) appoints Mark Gergen as Executive Chairman and Kristin Yarema as President and CEO.

  • SL Green Realty (SLG) announces that Andrew Mathias will leave his role as President.

  • Unity (U) Chairman and CEO John Riccitiello to retire. (MarketWatch)

  • Zevra Therapeutics (ZVRA) Appoints Neil F. McFarlane as President, Chief Executive Officer and Director.

• Buyback Announcements or News: None of note.

• Stock Splits or News: None of note.

• Dividends Announcements or News:

  • A. O. Smith (AOS) Increases Quarterly Dividend to $0.32 per Share, a 7% increase. (MarketWatch)

  • MAXIMUS (MMS) announces that its Board of Directors has approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share, a $0.02 increase from the prior quarter.

• Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -1, Dow Jones +19,  NASDAQ +2, and Russell 2000 +1.  (as of 7:56 a.m. EDT).  Asia is higher ex the Kospi while Europe is higher this morning. VIX Futures are at 18.92 from 19.60 yesterday.  Gold higher with Silver and Copper lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are lower with Natural Gas lower as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.703% from 4.795%  Friday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $27,551 from $27,524 yesterday, lower by -0.20%.

Sector Action –   

• Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Industrials, Real Estate, Utilities, Communication Services of note.

• Daily Negative Sectors: None of note.

Major U.S. stock indexes initially looked set for declines but rebounded in afternoon trading as the Israeli military retook several towns from Hamas control. The S&P 500 added 0.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%, or 197 points. Investors scooped up haven assets: Gold, often sought after by investors during times of geopolitical conflict, rose 1.1%. Shares of defense contractors jumped as well. Lockheed Martin (LMT) gained 8.9% and Northrop Grumman (NOC) climbed 11%, both posting their best days since March 2020.  (WSJ - edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software - sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Tuesday After the Close:

• Wednesday Before the Open: None of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beats: NEOG +0.08, PEP +0.10 of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: NSTG, PEP of note.

• Negative Guidance: TYGO, COHR of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

• Gap Up: NSTG +20%, AKRO +14%, U +7%, LXRX +7%, H +5%, PSTX +4% of note.

• Gap Down: VTYX -17%, PD -6% of note.

Insider Action:  sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.   sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: PEP, RIVN, PLTR, U, AKRO, ABCB, ARM (CNBC)

• 5 Things Need To Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)

• 5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)

• Bloomberg Lead Story: Israel Latest: Military Builds Forces Near Gaza as US sends Aid. (Bloomberg)

• Bloomberg Most Shared Story: Bank of America's Wrong-Way Rate Bet Hurt Moynihan's Growth Pledge. (Bloomberg)

• Stocks rise on China stimulus hopes, Rates outlook: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)

• China mulls new stimulus, higher deficits to meet growth goals. (Bloomberg)

• Chinese real estate company Country Garden says may not be able to repay its debt, warns of uncertainty. (CNBC)

• IMF raises the US 2023 outlook and leaves the global outlook unchanged. (CNBC)

• President Biden set to deliver comments on Hamas attack of Israel. (CNBC)

• Pepsi (PEP) beats earnings estimates and raises guidance. (CNBC)

• NPR Morning Report Marketplace: X's misinformation woes get worse during the Israeli-Hamas conflict. (Podcast)

• NY Times The Daily: The new Supreme Court, cases to watch.  (Podcast)

• BBC Global News:  Netanyahu: "We will change the Middle East". (Podcast) 

• Bloomberg:  Public schools brace for the end of pandemic aid. (Podcast)

• Wealthion: The bond vigilantes are back and they are not happy, Ed Yardeni. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

• Score improves to 57% from 45%.  10 day MA's all broken out to the upside.

Geopolitical: 

• President’s Public Schedule:

  • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing; The Vice President will attend, 11:00 a.m. EDT

  • The President delivers remarks on the terrorist attacks in Israel, 1:00 p.m. EDT

  • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, 2:00 p.m. EDT

  • The President delivers virtual remarks at the U.S. Fire Administrator’s Summit on Fire Prevention & Control, 3:30 p.m. EDT

Economic:

• September NFIB Small Business Optimism is due out at 6:00 a.m. EDT and last month came in at 91.30.

  • NFIB Small Business Optimism (SEP) Actual: 90.8 VS 91.3 Previous; Estimate 91.0

• Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EDT

• Wholesale Inventories 10:00 a.m. EDT

• The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest Data is due out after the close for the period of September 13th through September 27th. During this collection period, the S&P 500 fell -4.32%. Expect to see additions to short interest with this much weakness.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:  

• Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic 9:30 a.m. EDT

• Federal Reserve Board of Governors Christopher Waller 1:30 p.m. EDT

• Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari 3:00 p.m. EDT

• Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly 6:00 p.m. EDT

M&A Activity and News: 

• Haemonetics (HAE) acquires OpSens for $253 million.

• MiX Telematics (MIXT) and PowerFleet (PWFL) announce business combination.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:

  • BMO Biopharma Spotlight Series: (R)Evolution of RNA Therapies 2023

  • Capital Link/DNB New York Maritime Forum

  • Citi Global Resources Conference 2023 (10/10/23-10/11/23)

  • John Tumazos Very Independent Research (Gold/Mining) Conference 2023 (10/10/23-10/11/23)

  • Maxim Group Virtual Tech Conference Series (10/10/23-10/11/23)

  • Ragan Internal Communications Conference (10/10/23-10/11/23)

  • Stifel Virtual Renewable Conference 2023

    • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:

      • Jones Trading Healthcare Summit (10/09/23-10/11/23)

• Top Shareholder Meetings: FCEL, PG

• Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AKRO, HPQ, PL, PROC, RYAM, TLGY

• Company Event:

  • Adobe (ADBE) Max-The Creativity Conference

  • AVPT: #shifthappens Conference 2023

• Industry Meetings:

  • DATCON23 (10/10/23-10/12/23)

  • Cell & Gene Meeting on the Mesa 2023 (10/10/23-10/12/23)

  • HR Technology Conference & Exposition 2023 (10/10/23-10/13/23)

  • 15th World Stroke Congress 2023 (10/10/23-10/12/23)

  • MD&M (MedTech) Minneapolis Expo 2023 (10/10/23-10/11/23)

    • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:

      • APTA TRANSform Conference & EXPO (10/09/23-10/11/23)

      • American Congress of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) 2023 (10/09/23-10/12/23)

      • Risk Management Association 38th Securities Finance & Collateral Management Conference 2023 (10/09/23-10/12/23)

      • CareCloud Engage (10/09/23-10/13/23)

      • Global Gaming Expo (10/09/23-10/12/23)

      • Single Cell Genomics Meeting 2023 (10/09/23-10/11/23)

      • Association of the United States Army Annual Meeting & Exposition (AUSA) 2023 (10/09/23-10/11/23)

      • Hispanic Association on Corporate Responsibilities (HACR) Annual Symposium 2023 (10/09/23-10/11/23)

      • HLTH Conference (10/09/23-10/11/23)

      • INCOMPAS Show (10/09/23-10/10/23)

      • Heart Failure Society of America (HFSA) Annual Scientific Meeting 2023 (10/06/23-10/10/23)

      • European College of Neuropsychopharmacology (ECNP) Congress 2023 (10/07/23-10/10/23)

      • The Eye and The Chip World Research Congress on Artificial Vision 2023 (10/08/23-10/10/23)

      • CHEST Annual Meeting (The American College of Chest Physicians) 2023 (10/08/23-10/11/23)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades: