QPI Note - 12/11/23: Busy News Week Ahead With Inflation Data, Bond Auctions and FOMC Meeting. Stock Down Slightly Overnight.
Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday higher by 0.41% at 4604.37 from Thursday higher by 0.80% at 4585.59. The overnight high was hit at 4666.25 at 6:25 p.m. EST while the low was hit at 4652 at 6:25 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 14 points as of 7:30 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 16.20 from 16. The average for May-November average was 21.43 from 22.06. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -2 at 7:15 a.m. EST.
Executive Summary: This is a busy news week. Today we have 2 bond auctions. Pay attention to market reaction as stocks have moved on lukewarm auctions. Second, we get new inflation data. Last the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold their last meeting of the year. Over the weekend, Macy's gets a bid as does CrownRock from Occidental.
3 Year Note Auction 11:30 a.m. EST
10 Yr Note Auction 1:00 p.m. EST
Unusual Options Activity:
Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500. It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts. Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.
Earnings Out After The Close: None of note.
Capital Raises:
Secondaries Priced:
MLSS: Pricing of $3.0 Million Public Offering of Common Stock.. 4,765,000 shares $0.63.
Notes Priced of note:
CVI: Pricing of Private Placement of $600 Million of 8.500% Senior Notes due 2029.
Common Stock filings/Notes:
AIMD: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 10,200,000 Shares of Common Stock.
CNSP: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 3,809,524 Shares of Common Stock.
EYPT: Announces Closing of Upsized Public Offering and Full Exercise of Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
GGE: Proposed Public Offering. (Maxim Bookmanager)
IPA: Closing of $1.265 Million Public Offering of Common Shares.
ISUN: Filed Form S-3.. $50,000,000 Common Stock.
MLSS: Announces Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.
NHWK: Form 8K.. entered into a Sales Agreement.
SWTX: Announces Closing of Upsized Public Offering of Common Stock and Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
Direct Offering:
BODY: Announces $5,300,000 Registered Direct Offering.
Selling Shareholders of note:
HARP: Files for 25,751,025 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
Mixed Shelf Offerings:
ICU: Filed Form S-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
OABI: Files for $300 million mixed securities shelf offering.
Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
BFH: Intends to offer $500 million aggregate principal amount of senior notes in a private offering.
HASI: Files for share common stock offering by selling shareholders; relates to Green Exchangeable Senior Unsecured Notes.
Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
AFRM: Form 8-K.. BoD authorized the repurchase of up to $800 million in aggregate principal amount of its outstanding 0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026.
Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.
News After The Close and Over the Weekend:
Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
Trading Up: HA 175%, MBI 82%, SLDB 67%, GTHX 61%, ALLK 36%, DERM 32%, SNBR 32%, RILY 26%, RIGL 21%, AAOI 21%, AX 19%, TREE 19%, SMTC 18%, CARA 18%, JBLU 17%, LOVE 17%.
Trading Down: BLUE -33%, CMTL -27%, MESO -24%, DAKT -23%, MDRX -18%, RH -15%, BPT -15%, SSL -15%, FATE -15%, GDS -15%, DSX -14%, ARCB -14%, IAG -14%, BTE -13%, AU -13%, MDB -13%, AR -12%, TPIC -12%.
News Items After the Close:
American Electric (AEP) awarded a $315.9 million Defense Logistics Agency contract.
Boeing (BA) awarded a modification to an existing US Special Operations Command delivery order with a value of $271 million.
Textron (TXT) awarded a $128 million modification to a US Navy contract.
Parsons (PSN) Awarded $21 Million U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Contract For Munitions Response Geophysics.
News Items Over the Weekend:
The Score: Stocks That Defined the Week: SPOT, HA, ALK, CVS, GOOG, GME (WSJ)
Cigna (CI) Calls Off Humana (HUM) Pursuit, Plans Big Stock Buyback. (WSJ)
This week’s Fed meeting could slam the brakes on the year-end stock rally. (MarketWatch)
Macy’s (M) receives $5.8 billion buyout offer, sources say. (CNBC)
Why Treasury Auctions Have Wall Street on Edge. (WSJ)
LSU QB Jayden Daniels wins 2023 Heisman Trophy. (YahooSports)
Barron's:
Positive View: VRNS, FLYW, FOUR, CWAN, GWRE of note.
Cautious View: JPM, C, WFC, BAC, DAR of note.
Mixed View: INTC of note.
Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
Annual Changes to the Nasdaq-100 Index:
Added to the Index: CDW Corporation (CDW), Coca-Cola Europacific Partners plc (CCEP), DoorDash, Inc. (DASH), MongoDB, Inc. (MDB), Roper Technologies, Inc. (ROP), and Splunk Inc. (SPLK).
The following six companies will be removed from the Index: Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN), eBay Inc. (EBAY), Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH), JD.com, Inc. (JD), Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID), and Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM).
ALLR CEO let go.
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings (AVAH) Announces Appointment of Chief Financial Officer.
Boeing (BA) names Stephanie Pope as executive vice president and chief operating officer.
Beyond, Inc. (BYON) CTO Joel Weight resigns at the request of management.
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI) names James Ray as President and CEO.
DTE Energy (DTE) reduced the threshold of outstanding shares required to call a special shareholder meeting from 25% to 15%.
Gildan Activewear (GIL) announced that Glenn J. Chamandy has left his position as President and Chief Executive Officer and director of the Company.
Snow Lake (LITM) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Deficiency.
Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE) CFO David F. Byrnes resigned.
Silicon Labs (SLAB) announces CFO transition; John Hollister will depart to join partner GlobalFoundries (GFS) as CFO; CAO Mark Mauldin to be named interim CFO.
SouthState (SSB) Announces Transfer of Listing of Common Stock to NYSE.
TELL: Martin Houston Becomes Chairman of Tellurian Inc.
Buyback Announcements or News:
The Cigna Group (CI) announces significant increase to share repurchase program of $10 billion; will consider bolt-on acquisitions.
Kontoor Brands (KTB) authorized $300 million share repurchase program.
Stock Splits or News: None of note.
Dividends Announcements or News:
AES approves 4% dividend increase; to $0.1725 per share - new yield is 3.8%.
Albany Intl (AIN) increases quarterly cash dividend 4% to $0.26 per share from $0.25 per share.
W.R. Berkley (WRB) declares special cash dividend of $0.50/share to be paid on December 27 to stockholders of record at the close of business on December 18.
Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.
S&P 500 +1, Dow Jones +17, NASDAQ -12, and Russell 2000 -5. (as of 7:58 a.m. EST). Asia is higher and Europe is higher this morning ex the FTSE. VIX Futures are at 13.09 from 13.78 this morning. Gold, Silver and Copper lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are lower with Natural Gas lower as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.262% from 4.182% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $42,300 from $43,722 lower by -3.63% this morning.
Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):
Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Technology, Financial, Industrials of note.
Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Defensive, Communication Services of note.
One Month Winners: Real Estate, Industrials, Financials
Technology, Consumer Cyclicalof note.Three Month Winners: Technology, Financial, and Industrials
Communication Servicesof note.Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services,
Consumer CyclicalFinancial of note.Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Cyclical of note.
Year to Date Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, and Industrials of note.
Markets ticked higher to end the week after closely watched Job's Data came in slightly hotter than expectations. U.S. employers added 199,000 jobs in November, the Labor Department said, a slowdown from earlier in the year but more than economists expected. The unemployment rate slipped to 3.7%. The S&P 500 closed 0.4% higher to post a weekly gain, its sixth straight. The Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average also added 0.4%. All three major indexes closed at their highest level of the year. For traders, Friday’s data added to optimism that the economy is gliding toward a soft landing. Stocks have rallied and bond yields have dropped since the beginning of November as investors have bet that the Federal Reserve will get inflation under control without causing a steep recession. (WSJ - edited by QPI)
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software - sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
Monday After the Close:
Tuesday Before the Open: None of note.
Earnings of Note This Morning:None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:None of note.
Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:
Gap Up: PSTX +25%, CI +11%, MOR +6%, BLUE +5%, NKTX +5%, CRVS +5% of note.
Gap Down: BMEA -12%, COGT -6%, ADPT -5% of note.
Insider Action: HTLD sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. PLSE sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: CI, SNAP, M, OXY, PINS, JWN, KSS, NKE, BBY (CNBC)
What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens on Wednesday. (CNBC)
Bloomberg Lead Story: Rate Cut Pivot Can't Come Soon Enough For Debt Strapped Companies. (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg Second Most Shared Story: Battery Startup ONE demotes founder and CEO during cash crunch. (Bloomberg)
Stocks make cautious start to event-packed week: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
Oppenheimer Strategist John Stoltzfus sees S&P 500 hitting 5,200. (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg The Big Take: Ukraine struggles for weapons as winter nears. (Podcast)
NPR Marketplace: Green bubble shaming pits iPhone fans against Android users. (Podcast)
NY Times Daily: Can an "Anarcho Capitalist" President save Argentina's economy? (Podcast)
BBC Global News Daily Podcast: Argentina needs "shock treatment" to fix economy. (Podcast)
Wealthion: Weekly Market Recap with Adam Kobeissi. (Podcast)
Moving Average Update:
100%. All green!
Geopolitical:
President’s Public Schedule:
The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:00 a.m. EST
The President departs the White House en route to Joint Base Andrews, 10:40 a.m. EST
The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 11:00 a.m. EST
The President arrives in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 11:45 a.m. EST
The President delivers remarks at the announcement event for the city of Philadelphia receiving a $22.4 million SAFER Grant award that will fund firefighters’ salary and benefits and enable the Philadelphia Fire Department to reopen three fire companies – Engine 6, Ladder 1, and Ladder 11, and more, 12:30 p.m. EST
The President participates in a campaign reception, 2:30 p.m. EST
The President departs Philadelphia, Pennsylvania en route to Joint Base Andrews, 3:40 p.m. EST
The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route to the White House, 4:30 p.m. EST
The President arrives at the White House, 4:40 p.m. EST
The President and The First Lady host a Hanukkah Holiday Reception; The Second Gentleman attends, 7:05 p.m. EST
Economic:
3 Year Note Auction 11:30 a.m. EST
10 Yr Note Auction 1:00 p.m. EST
Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:
Blackout Period until December 12-13 meeting.
M&A Activity and News:
Macy's (M) - See News over the weekend.
Manulife (MFC) announces $13 billion reinsurance deal, including $6 billion of long-term care, with Global Atlantic.
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) bids $12 billion to buy privately held CrownRock, a petroleum producer. (CNBC)
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
Sellside Conferences:
Gordon Haskett Consumer and Retail Holiday Summit
JPM Advertising Holding Company Consecutive Executive Day
Oppenheimer 5G Summit
Seaport Digital Media & Advertising Conference
TD Cowen IT Services & Digital Engineering Services Summit
Top Shareholder Meetings: BLPH, GLAD, MSGS, WETG
Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ACM, AFMD, AFRM, CERE, COGT, CYTO, INTK, IPSC, NRIX, XPO
Industry Meetings:
American Society of Hematology (ASH) Annual Meeting
Capacity Asia
Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades: