QPI Note - 10/18/23: Stocks Lower On Higher Rates and Oil With Geopolitical Concerns Mixed In.
Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday lower by -0.01% at 4373.20 from Monday higher by 1.06% at 4373.63. The overnight high was hit at 4403.25 at 4:05 p.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4378.25 at 6:55 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 25 points as of 7:25 a.m. EDT. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 23.50 from 24.50 down from a peak of 31.50 on 8/15. The average for May-September average was 20.96 from 21.10 in May through August and the September average was 19.87. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -19.250 points which is -0.44% at 7:25 a.m. EDT.
Unusual Options Activity:
Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500. It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts. Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.
Earnings Out After The Close:
Beats: UAL +0.27, WTFC +0.12, HWC +0.08, IBKR +0.04, FULT +0.02, OMC +0.02 of note.
Misses: WAFD (0.19), JBHT (0.03), PNFP (0.01) of note.
Capital Raises:
Common Stock filings/Notes:
BAER: Commences $70 million public offering of common stock.
CDT: Filed Form S-1.. 7,755,710 Shares of Common Stock 16,033,000 Shares of Common Stock Underlying Warrants 976,000 Shares of Common Stock Underlying an Option.
NUZE: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock. (Maxim Bookmanager)
RARE: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock. up to $300,000,000 of shares. (JPM, GS, BAC, TD bookmanagers)
SSNT: Filed Form RW.
Selling Shareholders of note:
DINO: Agreed to repurchase from the Selling Stockholder 1,376,652 shares of the Company's outstanding common stock.
Mixed Shelf Offerings:
AMAM: Files $300 million mixed shelf securities offering.
NXU: Filed Form S-3.. $75,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
NUWE: Announces Closing of $2.25 Million Public Offering of Series J Convertible Redeemable Preferred Stock and Warrants.
Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.
News After The Close :
After Hours:
Trading Up: VKTX +9%, FND +6%of note.
Trading Down: RARE -6%, WAFD -6%, MIRM -5%, BIO -5%, BAER -5%, AMAM -4%, UAL -4%, JBHT -4%, IBKR -4% of note.
News Items After the Close:
Nvidia (NVDA) says China AI chip ban could result in delays, and transition of operations. (MarketWatch)
Fed to Propose Lowering Debit-Card Swipe Fees. (WSJ)
Terex’s (TEX) stock slides as hiked outlook falls short of Street view (MarketWatch)
Viking Therapeutics’ (VKTX) stock rallies following early drug study data (MarketWatch)
Microsoft (MSFT) is preparing to bring on Amazon (AMZN) as a customer of its 365 cloud tools in a $1 billion megadeal, according to an internal document. (BuisinessInsider)
The number of homes on the market grew month over month for a sixth consecutive month in September as sales declined 13.8% from August and 17.0% from a year ago. The 9.3% increase in inventory was the largest month-over-month increase in 14 months. Even so, inventory is 8.6% below September 2022 levels. (Remax)
X, formerly known as Twitter, will begin charging new users $1 a year to access key features including the ability to tweet and retweet. (Forbes)
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
Index Changes: Floor & Decor Holdings (FND) to join S&P MidCap 400; Vicor (VICR) to join S&P SmallCap 600
Ambarella (AMBA) CFO Brian White will retire at the conclusion of the current fiscal year ending January 31, 2024.
American Eagle (AEO) appoints two executive positions after the departure of its COO.
Bio-Rad Labs (BIO) CFO Ilan Daskal to resign.
Cameco (CCJ) announces its Board Chair Ian Bruce passed away on October 15.
KANZHUN Limited (BZ) announces board changes; Charles Zhaoxuan Yang and Yusheng Wang have resigned as independent non-executive directors.
Park City (PCYG) will transition from NASDAQ to NYSE effective on or about November 2, 2023; to rebrand with corporate name 'ReposiTrak' and ticker symbol 'TRAK'.
Terex (TEX) announces that John Garrison is retiring as Chairman and CEO.
Buyback Announcements or News:
Just Eat Takeaway (JTKWY) launching a new share buyback program of up to EUR 150 million.
Stock Splits or News:
TALS 1-for-10 reverse split.
WAVD trading reverse split price
Dividends Announcements or News:
Liberty Energy (LBRT) increases quarterly cash dividend 40% to $0.07 per share from $0.05 per share.
Lincoln Electric (LECO) increases quarterly cash dividend 11% to $0.71 per share from $0.64 per share.
Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.
S&P 500 -18, Dow Jones -87, NASDAQ -82, and Russell 2000 -9. (as of 7:59 a.m. EDT). Asia is higher while Europe is lower this morning ex the FTSE. VIX Futures are at 19.10 from 18.20 yesterday. Gold, Silver and Copper higher this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are higher with Natural Gas higher as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.817% from 4.75% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $28,408 from $28,587 yesterday, lower by -0.26%.
Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):
Daily Positive Sectors: Basic Materials, Energy, Consumer Defensive of note.
Daily Negative Sectors: Technology of note.
U.S. government bond yields hit fresh decade-plus highs Tuesday after another hot economic-data release fueled concerns that interest rates could remain elevated for longer. The latest retail sales report showed spending online, at stores and in restaurants rose a stronger-than-expected 0.7% in September from a month earlier. Treasury yields jumped afterward, with the benchmark 10-year bond yield rising to 4.846%, up from 4.709% Monday. It was the highest closing level since July 2007. Stocks wavered between gains and losses before closing little changed. The S&P 500 fell less than one-tenth of a percent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added less than one-tenth of a percent. The Nasdaq Composite was 0.3% lower. (WSJ - edited by QPI)
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software - sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
Wednesday After the Close:
Thursday Before the Open:
Earnings of Note This Morning:
Beats: ELV +0.54, WGO +0.23, ASML +0.13, PG +0.11, MTB +0.10, USB +0.09, MS +0.07, ABT +0.04, FHN +0.03, ALLY +0.03, CBSH +0.03, NDAQ +0.02, UCBI +0.01 of note.
Flat: None of note.
Misses: TRV (1.04), STT (0.54), UNF (0.16), SCL (0.12), CFG (0.06), NTRS (0.01) of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
Positive Guidance: GBDC, ELV, ABT of note.
Negative Guidance: UAL, TEX, USB, SPR of note.
Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:
Gap Up: VKTX +9%, TALS +8%, FND +8%, RYTM +6%, FULT +4% of note.
Gap Down: BAER -6%, WAFD -6%, MIRM -6%, UAL -6%, BIO -5%, RARE -5%, GOGO -4%, JBHT -4% of note.
Insider Action: CERE sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
5 Things To Know Before The Stock Market Opens Wednesday. (CNBC)
Bloomberg Lead Story: Biden Sees "Other Team" and Not Israel Behind Hospital Blast in Gaza. (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg Second Most Shared Story: Real Estate Brokers Pocketing Up to 6% Fees Draw Antitrust Scrutiny. (Bloomberg)
Oil Jumps as Iran seeks Israel embargo; Stocks dip: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
China's Strong GDP Report Shows Housing Remains A Big Problem. (Bloomberg)
Mortgage demand slows to the lowest level since 1995 as rates approach 8%. (CNBC)
Procter & Gamble (PG) tops earnings, and revenue estimates even as unit volumes drop. (CNBC)
Morgan Stanley (MS) tops estimates on better-than-expected trading results. (CNBC)
NPR Morning Report Marketplace: Bacteria could be the key to a safer, greener way of processing rare-earth metals. (Podcast)
NY Times The Daily: The diplomatic scramble to contain the Israel-Hamas war. (Podcast)
BBC Global News: Strike on Gaza hospital kills more than 500 people. (Podcast)
Wealthion: The economy is trapped in a vicious cycle of more debt & bigger deficits. (Podcast)
Moving Average Update:
Score improves to 71% from 68%.
Geopolitical:
President’s Public Schedule:
President is in Israel. No schedule was posted.
Economic:
MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EDT
MBA Mortgage Applications: Composite: -6.9%, Purchase: -5.6%, Refi:-9.9%
U.S MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS (WOW) ACTUAL: -6.9% VS 0.6% PREVIOUS
September Housing Starts are due outat 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to come in at 1,380,000 from 1,283,000 last month.
EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EDT
Federal Reserve Beige Book from the last month is due out at 2:00 p.m. EDT
Treasury IUnt. Capital 4:00 p.m. EDT
Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:
Federal Reserve Board of Governors Christopher Waller 12:00 p.m. EDT
Federal Reserve New York President John Williams 12:30 p.m. EDT
Federal Reserve Board of Governors Michelle Bowman 1:00 p.m. EDT
Federal Reserve Philadelphia President Patrick Harker 3:15 p.m. EDT
Federal Reserve Board of Governors Lisa D. Cook 6:55 p.m. EDT
M&A Activity and News:
The J.M. Smucker Co. (SJM) Announces Agreement to Divest Fermented Food Condiment Brands in Canada.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
Top Shareholder Meetings: SNGX, XFIN
R&D Day: SUPN.
Company Event:
Google's (GOOG) ChromeOS Partner Summit
VMware (VMW) Explore Sao Paulo 2023 (10/18/23-10/19/23)
Oracle (ORCL) SuiteWorld
Industry Meetings:
Association for Value-Based Cancer Care (AVBCC) Summit 2023 (10/18/23-10/21/23)
North American Spine Society (NASS) 38th Annual Meeting 2023 (10/18/23-10/21/23)
International Society for Organ Donation and Procurement (ISODP) 17th Organ Donation Congress 2023 (10/18/23-10/21/23)
American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (ASTMH) Annual Meeting 2023 (10/18/23-10/22/23)
Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
Advertising Week (10/16/23-10/19/23)
Academy of Managed Care Pharmacy (AMCP) Nexus National Meeting 2023 (10/16/23-10/19/23)
Fierce Biotech Summit 2023 (10/16/23-10/18/23)
Gartner IT Symposium/Xpo Event (10/16/23-10/19/23)
World Vaccine Congress Europe (10/16/23-10/19/23)
11th Annual Meeting of the International Cytokine & Interferon Society (Cytokines) 2023 (10/15/23-10/18/23)
Global Risk Management Conference (RMC) 2023 (10/17/23-10/20/23)
Satellite Innovation 2023 (10/17/23-10/18/23)
LithiumSAFE Battery Safety Workshop 2023 (10/17/23-10/19/23)
NBAA-BACE (Aviation) 2023 (10/17/23-10/19/23)
BIO Investor Forum (10/17/23-10/18/23)
Open Compute Project (OCP) Global Summit 2023 (10/17/23-10/19/23)
JKHY Connect
Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades: