QPI Note - 03/06/24: Let's Get Ready To Rumble As Game On For Biden-Trump, Haley Drops Out
Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday lower by -1.14% at 5078.65 from Monday lower by 0.12% at 5130.95. The overnight high was hit at 5108.25 at 7:15 p.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 5083.75 at 7:55 p.m. EST. The range overnight is 25 points as of 7:15 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 22.95 from 22.72. The average for May-January average was 20.88 from 20.87 during May-December. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by +19 points at 7:25 a.m EST.
Executive Summary: All eyes and ears are paying attention to the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell as he begins day one of testimony on The Hill before the House.
February ADP Employment Report is due out at 8:15 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 150,000 from 107,000.
January JOLTS Report is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and came in last month at 9,026,000.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell begins two days of Humphrey Hawkins Testimony before the House at 10:00 a.m. EST.
Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly 12:00 p.m. EST
The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book is due out at 2:00 p.m. EST.
Unusual Options Activity:
Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500. It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts. Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.
Earnings Out After The Close:
Beats: ROST +0.16, CRWD +0.13, FNV +0.10, BASE +0.08, ODD +0.08, CDRE +0.07, HCP +0.04, BOX +0.04, NVEI +0.02, AGTI +0.01 of note.
Flat: CHPT +0.00 of note.
Misses: MLNK (0.17), WTI (0.07), JWN (0.06), CRCT (0.01) of note.
Capital Raises:
IPOs Priced or News:
Ryde Group Ltd (RYDE) Announces Pricing of Initial Public Offering.
SMXT: Exercise of Overallotment Option From Initial Public Offering.
New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
Secondaries Priced:
AKRO: Prices offering of 11.0 million shares of common stock at $29.00 per share.
ALB: Upsizes and prices an offering of 40 million depositary shares at $50 per share.
BBIO: Prices offering of 8,620,690 shares of its common stock at $29.00 per share.
LSEA: Prices secondary offering of 2,434,783 shares of common stock at $11.60 per share.
NSSC: Prices offering of 2.0 million shares of common stock at $40.75 per share.
VNOM: Prices secondary offering of 11.5 million shares of common stock at for gross proceeds of $402.5 million.
Notes Priced of note:
KOS: Prices offering of $350 million of its 3.125% convertible senior notes due 2030.
LIVN: Prices offering of $300 million of 2.50% convertible senior notes due 2029.
LNG: Pricing of $1.5 Billion Senior Notes due 2034.
MSTR: Announces Pricing of Offering of Convertible Senior Notes.
NFE: Announces Upsizing and Pricing of $750 Million of Senior Secured Notes.
RITM: Pricing of Offering of Senior Unsecured Notes.
SOFI: Prices offering of $750 million of 1.25% convertible senior notes due 2029.
TNDM: Prices offering of $275.0 million of 1.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2029.
Common Stock filings/Notes:
APGE: Commences public offering of ~$350 million of shares of its common stock.
HSCS: Filed Form S-1.. 34,684,859 Shares of Common Stock.
ITGR: C$10 Million Bought Deal Public Offering.
Direct Offering: None of note.
Selling Shareholders of note:
LSEA: Files for 2,434,783 shares of common stock by selling shareholder.
NSSC: Files for 2,300,000 shares of its common stock by Chairman of the Board and President and Chief Executive Officer, Richard Soloway.
TXO: see Mixed Shelf Offerings.
VNOM: Launches secondary offering of 11.5 million common shares by Diamondback Energy (FANG).
Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
Mixed Shelf Offerings:
BAC: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
FUBO: Files mixed shelf securities offering; also files for 86,667,030 shares of common stock issuable upon conversion of convertible notes by selling shareholders.
TXO: Files $250 million mixed shelf securities offering; also files for 11,470,901 common units by selling unitholders.
Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
AIRT $15.0 Million in Private and Non-Recourse Debt Transaction, Propelling Strategic Growth Initiatives.
MGA: Senior Notes Offering.
Tender Offer: None of note.
Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:.
FUBO: see Mixed Shelf Offerings.
XRX: Proposes $300 million convertible senior notes. (see buyback)
Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.
News After The Close :
After Hours Movers:
MRAI: +52% "OFF-CYCLE" NEW CLIENT AGREEMENT
CRWD: +25% Earnings
BASE: +13% Earnings
CXDO: +8% Earnings
BOX: +3% Earnings
HSCS: -19% Filed Form S-1.. 34,684,859 Shares of Common Stock.
ODD: -12% Earnings
JWN: -10% Earnings
XRX: -8% Offering of Senior Unsecured Notes
CHPT: -6.5% Earnings
News Items After the Close:
Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: JWN, CRWD, BOX, HCP, ROST (CNBC)
CrowdStrike (CRWD) shares surge on earnings beat, strong full-year guidance. (CNBC)
Fed Chair Powell testifying to House on Wednesday. What investors are expecting. (CNBC)
Nordstrom (JWN) shares fall 10% as retailer warns of potential sales declines in 2024 (CNBC)
Box (BOX) posts first $1 billion fiscal year as AI sales pick up, sending stock flying (MarketWatch)
Ross Stores (ROST) says that housing and food costs continue to pressure its customers. (MarketWatch)
TSLA Morgan Stanley: “is both an auto stock + an energy, AI/robotics company. In fact, our valuation of the core auto business ($68/share) represents just 21% of our $320 price target. Negative developments in the global EV market very much matter to Tesla and should reasonably have a negative near-term impact ..” (CQ CNBC)
AAPL Morgan Stanley: “.. Apple’s share price reacted positively following its decision to cancel the $AAPL Car project. We suspect other companies .. will also react positively as they pull capital away from robo-taxis .. mass commercialization .. of humanoid robots may outpace AVs over the next decade.” (CQ CNBC)
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) completes previously announced acquisition of Hi-Crush and announces promotion of John Turner to CEO.
NYSE to Commence Delisting Proceedings Against BowFlex Inc. (BFX).
Dada (DADA) announces results of previously disclosed independent review; net revs overstated in certain periods; prepared remediation plan as a response.
United Natural Foods (UNFI) announces that Giorgio “Matteo” Tarditi has been named President and Chief Financial Officer.
Buyback Announcements or News:
BOX Board of Directors authorized an expansion of its stock repurchase program by $100 million.
Denny's (DENN) entered into a pre-arranged stock trading plan for the purpose of repurchasing a limited number of shares of the Company’s common stock in accordance with guidelines specified under Rule 10b5-1.
HashiCorp (HCP) approves $250 million for repurchases.
Ross Stores (ROST) new $2.1 billion share repurchase authorization. (see Dividends)
Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC) entered into an accelerated share repurchase agreement.
Xerox (XRX) $45 million repurchase.
Stock Splits or News:
Affimed (AFMD) Announces 1-for-10 Reverse Stock Split.
APVO to trade reverse split price 1/44 today
Canoo Inc. (GOEV) Announces 1-for-23 Reverse Stock Split Effective March 8, 2024.
Dividends Announcements or News:
Ross Stores (ROST) increases dividend by 10%.
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.
S&P 500 +25, Dow Jones +109, NASDAQ +158, and Russell 2000 +10. (as of 8:03 a.m. EST). Asia is mixed while Europe is higher this morning ex Germany. VIX Futures are at 14.45 from 14.12 yesterday morning. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are higher while Natural Gas is lower. US 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.149% from 4.19% yesterday morning. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $66,433 from $66,966 higher by 6.58% this morning.
Sector Action –
Daily Positive Sectors: Energy of note.
Daily Negative Sectors: Technology, Real Estate, Consumer Cyclical, Basic Materials, Healthcare, Industrials of note.
Nearly all of the Magnificent Seven tech stocks fell Tuesday, dragging major indexes down from their recent records. Chip maker Nvidia (NVDA) the biggest winner of the market’s artificial-intelligence mania—was the only member of the group to post a gain. In 2023, the group made up of Alphabet, Amazon.com, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla powered the market, helping to drive the S&P 500 up 24%. Stocks have continued to march higher in the new year, with the broad U.S. stock index and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closing at records Friday. But trading has taken on a cautious tone so far this week ahead of key economic data, including the monthly jobs report Friday. Major indexes retreated Tuesday, extending their declines from Monday. The S&P 500 fell 1%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1%, or about 405 points. (WSJ - edited by QPI)
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software - sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
Wednesday After the Close:
Thursday Before the Open:
Earnings of Note This Morning:
Beats: JD +0.49, ANF +0.14, REVG +0.10, UNFI +0.09, KFY +0.08, FL +0.06, EVGO +0.05, CPB +0.03 of note.
Flat: None of note.
Misses: THO (0.54), BRY (0.12), GENI (0.10) of note.
Still to Report: BF.B, SGHC of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
Positive Guidance: BASE, CRWD, ODD, CDRE, NVEI, KFY, FL, ANF of note.
Negative Guidance: SMRT, HCP, BOX, JWN, MLNK, CHPT, THO, UNFI, REVG of note.
Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:
Gap Up: CRWD +23%, VINC +17%, DADA +15%, JD +11%, BASE +9%, HIVE +6%, IREN +6%, ZS +4%, SOFI +4%, BGNE +4% of note.
Gap Down: JWN -10%, XRX -10%, ODD -10%, MRNS -8%, VNOM -7%, MLNK -5%, NUVL -5%, NSSC -4%, NVEI -4%, CHPT -4%, PYXS -4% of note.
Insider Action: JXN sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. IE, DAR sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
Bloomberg Lead Story: Nikki Haley to End 2024 Presidential Bid. (Bloomberg)
Stocks rise as traders seek more clues from Powell: Markets Wrap. (Bloomberg)
Foot Locker (FL) falls as heavy promotions hurt earnings. (CNBC)
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) blow-out earnings. (CNBC)
Bloomberg The Big Take: Biden- Trump Race is On! (Podcast)
NYT The Daily: Unhappy Voters Who Could Swing The Election. (Podcast)
Marketplace: One year after Silicon Valley and "all hell broke loose". (Podcast)
Wealthion: Market defiance of the Fed. (Podcast)
Moving Average Update: Score slides down to 65% from 100%.
Geopolitical:
President’s Public Schedule:
The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:00 a.m. EST
Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:30 p.m. EST
Economic:
MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EST
MBA Mortgage Applications: Composite: +9.7%, Purchase: +10.6%, ReFi: +8.1%
U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (WOW) Actual: 9.7% VS -5.6% Previous
U.S MBA 30-YEAR Mortgage Rate Actual: 7.02% VS 7.04% Previous
February ADP Employment Report is due out at 8:15 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 150,000 from 107,000.
January JOLTS Report is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and came in last month at 9,026,000.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell begins two days of Humphrey Hawkins Testimony before the House at 10:00 a.m. EST.
Wholesale Inventories 10:00 a.m. EST
EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EST
The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book is due out at 2:00 p.m. EST.
Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell begins two days of Humphrey Hawkins Testimony before the House at 10:00 a.m. EST.
Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly 12:00 p.m. EST
M&A Activity and News:
CrowdStrike (CRWD) agrees to acquire Flow Security.
Vishay (VSH) acquires Nexperia’s Newport Wafer Fab for $177 million.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
Sellside Conferences:
Barclays Investment Grade Energy and Pipeline Conference
DNB Energy & Shipping Conference
UBS Global Banking Services Conference
Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
BAC Power, Utilities and Clean Energy Conference
Citi Global Property CEO Conference
Cowen Health Care Conference
KeyBanc Emerging Technology Summit
Morgan Stanley TMT Conference
RBC Capital Markets Financial Institutions Conference
Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference
TD Cowen Healthcare Conference
Top Shareholder Meetings: ASYS, ENTA, EPIX, NGVC, PHVS, ROSS
Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: GDDY, GE, PNR
Industry Meetings:
ATTD Conference
NIC Spring Conference
Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
AI conference, C3 Transform
International Conference on Alzheimer's and Parkinson's Disease
MDA Clinical & Scientific Conference
PDAC Convention
Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades: