QPI Note - 02/29/24: Markets Await PCE Core Data As Stocks Trade Lower Into Report
Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday lower by -0.17% at 5069.76 from Tuesday lower by -0.38% at 5069.53. The overnight high was hit at 5085.25 at 12:05 a.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 5060 at 3:15 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 25 points as of 7:15 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 22.97 from 22.14. The average for May-January average was 20.88 from 20.87 during May-December. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -12.25 points at 7:15 a.m EST.
Executive Summary: All eyes on PCE Core today at 8:30 a.m. EST. 0.4% or higher then stocks will sell off, under 0.2% then stocks will rally.
January Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to come in at 0.5% from 0.3%.
January Personal Spending is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to drop to 0.2% from 0.7%.
January PCE Core is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 0.4% from 02.%.
January Pending Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and are expected to fall to 1.0% from 8.3%
Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic 10:50 a.m. EST
Federal Reserve Chicago President Austan Goolsbee 11:00 a.m. EST
Federal Reserve Cleveland President Loretta Mester 1:15 p.m. EST
Federal Reserve New York President John Williams 8:10 p.m. EST
Unusual Options Activity:
Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500. It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts. Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.
Earnings Out After The Close:
Beats: KNTK +1.23, ACLX +0.95, GEF +0.80, SRPT +0.48, SBGI +0.30, RXST +0.24, SDRL +0.24, DUOL +0.22, PETQ +0.20, NTNX +0.17, SNOW +0.17, AMC +0.16, AI +0.15, WHD +0.13, ESTA +0.12, NTRA +0.12, OKTA +0.12, AMRC +0.10, SILK +0.09, SDGR +0.08, AXNX +0.07, ZUO +0.07, PARA +0.06, SOVO +0.06, PSTG +0.06, MMSI +0.04, TASK +0.04, KROS +0.03, RVNC +0.03, AAON +0.03, NSA +0.03, BRP +0.03, FIGS +0.03, STKL +0.03, USPH +0.02, CRM +0.02, CWAN +0.02, SRI +0.02, EPR +0.01, CCCS +0.01, MGNI +0.01 of note.
Flat: IONQ +0.00, MQ +0.00, MNST +0.00, HPQ +0.00 of note.
Misses: CDNA (1.76), CODI (1.13), WW (1.00), LPSN (0.44), FWRD (0.17), JAZZ (0.16), ALKT (0.15), ADMA (0.11), JRVR (0.11), NARI (0.08), MYRG (0.07), SHLS (0.05), MARA (0.05), CRNX (0.04), CBAY (0.04), DV (0.03), IOVA (0.02), EVTC (0.02), DH (0.01 of note.
Capital Raises:
Secondaries Priced:
ARQT: Prices offering of 15,789,474 shares of common stock at $9.50 per share.
APP: Announces the pricing of a secondary offering of 19,866,397 shares of its Class A common stock by KKR Denali Holdings; AppLovin also intends to repurchase approximately $570 million of the shares of Class A common stock being offered in the offering at the same per share price to be paid by the underwriters to the Selling Stockholder in the offering.
GFL: Announces Upsize and Pricing of Secondary Offering by Selling Shareholders.
JANX: Prices offering of consisting of common stock and warrants.
MIST: Announces Pricing of $30.0 Million Public Offering of Common Shares and Pre-Funded Warrants.
PNW: Announces Pricing of a Public Offering of 9,774,436 Shares of Common Stock.
PTLO: Prices offering of 8.0 million shares of common stock for gross proceeds of $116 million.
SHC: Pricing of Secondary Offering.. 25M @$14.75.
VKTX: Prices offering of 6,471,000 shares of its common stock at $85.00 per share.
Notes Priced of note:
CTRA: Pricing of Senior Unsecured Notes.
DKL: Announces Pricing of Upsized Offering of $650 Million of Senior Notes.
Common Stock filings/Notes:
ARQT: Announces the commencement of an underwritten public offering of $150.0 mln of shares of its common stock and, in lieu of common stock to certain investors, pre-funded warrants to purchase shares of its common stock.
CLDX: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.. $250.0 million of shares. (Leerink and TD Bookmanager)
CLPT: Announces the commencement of a proposed underwritten public offering of its shares of common stock.
KPRX: Filed FORM S-3 - 76,528,829 Shares of Common Stock.
MIST: Proposed Public Offering of Common Shares and Pre-Funded Warrants.
PTLO: announces the launch of an underwritten public offering of 8,000,000 shares of Portillo’s Class A common stock.
Selling Shareholders of note:
APG: Announces launch of secondary public offering of 8,130,082 common stocks by certain funds affiliated with Blackstone (BX) and Viking Global Investors.
GFL: Secondary Offering of 17,000,000 Subordinate Voting Shares by Selling Shareholders. (RBC Underwriters)
RNA: Files for 5,075,304 shares of common stock by selling shareholder.
Mixed Shelf Offerings:
CSTL: Files $300 million mixed shelf securities offering.
EDIT: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
MRUS Files mixed shelf securities offering.
PNW: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
SDGR: Files mixed securities shelf offering.
Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.
News After The Close :
After Hours Movers:
OKTA: +23% Earnings
DUOL: +22% Earnings
VYGR: +16% Earnings
AI: +13% Earnings
NTRA: +11% Earnings
SILK: +10% Earnings
CPRX: +9% Earnings
MDXG: +9% Earnings
PSTG: +8% Earnings
RVNC: +8% Earnings
SNOW: -20% Earnings
DV: -19% Earnings
SHLS: -15.5% Earnings
RRGB: -15.5% Earnings
FIGS: -14.5% Earnings
SDGR: -14% Earnings
FWRD: -13% Earnings
CLPT: -10% Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock
NARI: -8% Earnings
IONQ: -6.3% Earnings
PTLO: -5.7% Offering of Class A Common Stock in “Synthetic Secondary” Transaction
News Items After the Close:
Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: CRM, SNOW, OKTA, DUOL, AI, PARA, PSTG, NTNX, HPQ, AMC, FIGS (CNBC)
Snowflake (SNOW) says Frank Slootman is retiring as CEO, stock plunges more than 20%. (CNBC)
Salesforce (CRM) beats on earnings but forecasts single-digit revenue growth for the year. (CNBC)
Paramount (PARA) falls short of revenue expectations but posts surprise profit, strong streaming results. (CNBC)
Justice Department Looking Into Boeing (BA) Door Plug Blowout. (Bloomberg)
Lawmakers Reach Deal to Avert Partial Government Shutdown This Weekend. (WSJ)
U.S. Supreme Court agrees to consider Trump's immunity claim in election interference case. Arguments in late April. (Bloomberg)
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
Index Changes: Sprinklr (CXM) to join S&P SmallCap 600.
C3.ai (AI) names names Hitesh Lath as CFO.
Arista Networks (ANET) COO Anshul Sadana announced that he plans to take leave of absence for personal reasons.
Chemours (CC) places CEO Newman, CFO Lock on leave pending review; delays 10-K filing.
Dentsply Sirona (XRAY) announces that Eric K. Brandt has informed the Board of his intention to retire.
Electronic Arts (EA) approved a restructuring plan.
FIGS, Inc. (FIGS) CFO Daniella Turenshine to resign, effective April 12; Kevin Fosty, VP Controller, to serve as Interim CFO.
Mirum Pharmaceuticals (MIRM) to delay 10-K filing.
Outbrain Inc. (OB) announces that David Kostman will assume the role of sole CEO of Outbrain.
Snowflake (SNOW) names Sridhar Ramaswamy CEO, Frank Slootman to retire.
Stantec (STN) announced that CFO Theresa Jang will retire once a successor is named.
US Foods (USFD) announces that Scott Ferguson, Founder and Managing Partner, Sachem Head Capital Management has stepped down from the Board.
WW: Announces that Director Oprah Winfrey has decided not to stand for re-election at the Company’s upcoming annual meeting of shareholders to be held in May 2024.
Buyback Announcements or News:
Bath and Body Works (BBWI) Board approved $500 million buyback.
CRM increases Buyback Authorization by $10 Billion.
Excelerate Energy (EE) New $50 Million Share Repurchase Program.
ExlService (EXLS) has authorized a $500 million common stock repurchase program, effective March 1, 2024.
First Bancshares' (FBMS) board of directors has approved a new share repurchase program for the 2024 calendar year.
Quaker Chemical (KWR) announces $150 million stock repurchase authorization.
Progyny (PGNY) announces a $100 million share repurchase program.
Stock Splits or News:
Reverse split stocks today CELU 1/10 ZCMD 1/10
Dividends Announcements or News:
Acushnet (GOLF) increases dividend by 10.3%.
Best Buy (BBY) increases dividend by 2%.
Boyd Gaming (BYD) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.17 per share from $0.16 per share.
Cogent Communications (CCOI) increases quarterly dividend by $0.01 per share to $0.965 per share.
Crescent Point Energy (CPG) increases quarterly dividend 15% to $0.115 per share from $0.10 per share.
Dentsply Sirona (XRAY) approves a 14% increase in quarterly dividend.
EPR Properties (EPR) increases dividend.
Forward Air (FWRD) suspends dividend.
Petrobras (PBR) says it has not made a decision regarding the distribution of dividends that have not yet been declared.
Sitio Royalties Corp. (STR) Declared 4Q 2023 dividend of $0.51 per share of Class A Common Stock, an increase of $0.02 per share, or approximately 4%.
Stantec (STN) declared a dividend of $0.21 per share.
Turning Point Brands (TPB) increases quarterly cash dividend 8% to $0.07 per share from $0.065 per share.
U.S. Physical Therapy (USPH) increases dividend.
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.
S&P 500 -12, Dow Jones -127, NASDAQ -38, and Russell 2000 +2. (as of 8:00 a.m. EST). Asia is lower ex Australia and Shanghai while Europe is higher ex France this morning. VIX Futures are at 14.80 from 14.78 yesterday morning. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are lower while Natural Gas is higher. US 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.307% from 4.286% yesterday morning. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $62,710 from $59,326 higher by 4.04% this morning.
Sector Action –
Daily Positive Sectors: Real Estate of note.
Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services, Energy, Healthcare, Technology, Basic Materials of note.
The AI mania that fueled the stock market to record highs this year took a breather Wednesday, pushing all three indexes lower. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite led losses among the three major indexes, down 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%, or 23 points, and the benchmark S&P 500 declined 0.2%. Surging share prices of the Magnificent Seven stocks—Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA) and Meta Platforms (META)—pushed indexes higher last year. Gains for some of those stocks have accelerated this year due to investor interest in artificial intelligence and its potential applications. Earlier this month, chip maker Nvidia’s market capitalization briefly topped $2 trillion. (WSJ - edited by QPI)
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software - sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
Thursday After the Close:
Friday Before the Open:
Earnings of Note This Morning:
Beats: CCOI 5.20, CNQ 2.45, TD 0.57, STRA 0.34, ACIW 0.30, DFH 0.29, BBY 0.19, PZZA 0.19, BBWI 0.19, ANIP 0.14, DOLE 0.13, NFE 0.11, FREY 0.10, HGV 0.06, HRL 0.06, HAYW 0.02, VERX 0.02, INSW 0.01, CELH 0.01, DAVA 0.01, XRAY 0.01, GDRX 0.01, EXLS 0.01 of note.
Flat: NVRI 0.00, XMTR 0.00, OLPX 0.00, BIRK 0.00, UTZ 0.00 of note.
Misses: SIX (0.53), EVRI (0.18), LEV (0.18), BTSG (0.16), COMM (0.07), FRO (0.05), STER (0.04), GOLF (0.04), EVRG (0.01), FA (0.01), GMS (0.01) of note.
Still to Report: MLCO , PCRX , TGNA , TRS , UNIT , VCEL of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
Positive Guidance: DUOL, OKTA, PSTG, NTRA, TASK, NTNX, CDNA, PETQ, CCCS, SILK, ADMA, CC, GDRX, UTZ, VERX of note.
Negative Guidance: FTDR, WW, SHLS, AMRC, NSA, DV, CWAN, LPSN, FA, GLNG, OLPX, BBWI, NVRI, XMTR, UNIT, PCRX, TRS of note.
Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:
Gap Up: OKTA 29%, STER 26%, DUOL 19%, AI 18%, CPRX 15%, ESTA 15%, FREY 15%, GDRX 11%, RVNC 10%, NTRA 10%, MDXG 9%, SILK 9%, PSTG 9%, NSA 8%, ATRO 8%, JANX 7%, STKL 7%, CXM 7%, MNST 6%, AMRC 6%, CRH 6%, CCCS 6%, NTNX 5%, WHD 5%, HRL 5%, EVRI 4%, HLN 4%, XPEV 4%, SQM 4%, STN 4% of note.
Gap Down: CC -27%, IRWD -25%, WW -24%, SNOW -23%, SHLS -19%, DV -18%, FIGS -16%, SDGR -16%, LPSN -13%, NARI -11%, FWRD -11%, CLPT -9%, MARA -9%, IONQ -9%, AMC -8%, ALKT -7%, IOVA -7%, SRI -7%, CSTL -7%, SDRL -6%, MIRM -6%, FA -6%, MQ -6%, NTES -6%, CELH -6%, PTLO -5%, ARQT -5%, STEM -5%, EDIT -5%, ARGX -4%, CWAN -4% of note.
Insider Action: TCBI sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
The Open: Newsletter for Bloomberg Subscribers *NEW* (Bloomberg)
5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: DUOL, SNOW, CRM, AI, OKTA, PARA, CELH, NTNX, FIGS (CNBC)
Bloomberg Lead Story: China Bans High-Frequency Trader as Quant Crackdown Expands. (Bloomberg)
US Futures and Bonds Slip With Focus on Inflation. (Bloomberg)
Best Buy (BBY) beats holiday quarter but issues soft guidance for 2024, yet stock is higher by 2.40%. (CNBC)
Moving Average Update: Score goes down to 87% from being at 100% for 3 days.
Geopolitical:
President’s Public Schedule:
The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 9:00 AM
The President departs the White House en route to Joint Base Andrews, 10:10 AM
The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route to Brownsville, Texas, 10:30 AM
Principal Deputy Press Secretary Olivia Dalton will speak aboard Air Force One en route to Brownsville, Texas, 12:00 p.m. EST
The President arrives in Brownsville, Texas (1:35 PM Local), 2:35 p.m. EST
The President receives a briefing at the border (2:10 PM Local), 3:10 p.m. EST
The President receives an operational briefing from U.S. Customs and Border Protection, USCIS, and ICE (3:05 PM Local), 4:05 p.m. EST
The President delivers remarks (3:30 PM Local), 4:30 p.m. EST
The President departs Brownsville, Texas en route to Joint Base Andrews (5:30 PM Local), 6:30 p.m. EST
The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route to the White House, 9:45 p.m. EST
The President arrives at the White House, 9:55 p.m. EST
Economic:
Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EST
January Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to come in at 0.5% from 0.3%.
January Personal Spending is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to drop to 0.2% from 0.7%.
January PCE Core is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 0.4% from 02.%.
Chicago PMI 9:45 a.m. EST
January Pending Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and are expected to fall to 1.0% from 8.3%
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EST
Farm Prices 3:00 p.m. EST
Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:
Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic 10:50 a.m. EST
Federal Reserve Chicago President Austan Goolsbee 11:00 a.m. EST
Federal Reserve Cleveland President Loretta Mester 1:15 p.m. EST
Federal Reserve New York President John Williams 8:10 p.m. EST
M&A Activity and News:
First Advantage Corp. (FA) has entered into a definitive purchase agreement to acquire Sterling Check Corp. (STER) for $2.2 billion in cash and stock.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
Sellside Conferences:
Baird Conference on Vehicle Technology & Mobility
Bank of America Animal Health Summit
Citi Unplugged MedTech and Life Sciences Access Day
Susquehanna Technology Conference
Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
Bank of America Global Agriculture & Materials Conference
Evercore ISI Emerging Biotech Conference
KBW Fintech Payments Conference
Scotiabank Energy & Power Conference
Wolfe Research Real Estate Conference
Top Shareholder Meetings: MULN, TTEK
Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ARLO, BRFH, PECO, PSNY, PFE
Industry Meetings:
None of note.
Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
CAR-TCR Summit Europe
Immuno-Oncology 360 Conference
Mobile World Congress
Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades: