QPI Note - 01/18/24: Futures Rebound From Overnight Selling
Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday lower by -0.56% at 4739.21 from Tuesday lower by -0.37% at 4765.98. The overnight high was hit at 4785.50 at 6:20 a.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 4763.50 at 11:50 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 22 points as of 6:20 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 23.70 from 23.60. The average for May-December average was 20.87 from 21.43 during May-November. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by +12.75 points at 6:25 a.m. EST.
Executive Summary: Last night I watched Underrated with my 14 year old son on Apple TV about Stephan Curry. It is brilliant, lots of good life lessons. Lots of parallels to the stock market. Do you know an "underrated company"? Let us know your favorite underrated name and we will publish our charts on them (research@quantpartners.com)!
December Housing Starts are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 1,430,000 from 1,417,000.
December Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and to improve to -8.0 from -10.50.
Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic 7:30 a.m. EST and 12:05 p.m. EST
Unusual Options Activity:
Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500. It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts. Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.
Earnings Out After The Close:
Beats: FUL +0.05, AA +0.01 of note.
Misses: DFS (0.96), WTFC (0.55), SNV (0.15), KMI (0.03)of note.
Capital Raises:
IPOs Priced or News:
Palmer Square Capital BDC Inc. (PSBD) Prices Initial Public Offering.
Secondaries Priced:
IMTX: Prices $175 Million offering. 15.9 million shares at $11 per share.
SURG: Announces Pricing of $15 Million Public Offering.
TALO: Prices offering of 30.0 million shares of common stock for gross proceeds of $351.0 million.
VRDN: Prices offering of 7,142,858 shares of common stock at $21.00 per share.
Notes Priced of note:
EQT: Pricing of $750 Million of New Senior Notes.
RWT: Prices $60.0 Million Senior Notes Offering.
Common Stock filings/Notes:
CATX: Proposed Public Offering. (Oppenheimer and B. Riley Bookmanagers)
CETX: Filed Form S-1.. Filed to sell common stock and warrants.
IMTX: Announces proposed public offering of its ordinary shares. (Jefferies, BAC and Leerink Bookmanagers)
PLUG: Enters into an At Market Issuance Sales Agreement to sell shares of its common stock having an aggregate offering price of up to $1.0 billion.
SURG: Proposed Public Offering. (Titan Partners Bookmanager)
TALO: Commencement of Underwritten Public Offering of Common Stock. $300.0 million of shares. (JPM, GS and Mizuho bookmanager)
VRDN: Proposed Underwritten Public Offering of Common Stock and Preferred Stock. (Jefferies and Leerink Bookmanagers)
Selling Shareholders of note:
SND - See Mixed Shelf
Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
CGC: Announces upsized $35 million private placement.
Mixed Shelf Offerings:
ROI: Filed Form S-3.. $25,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
SND: Form S-3 Filed .. $200,000,000 Mixed Shelf -- 8,158,754 Shares Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders.
Tender Offer:
SVA: Board of Directors Unanimously Rejects an Unsolicited Partial Tender Offer.
Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
MMYT: Announces Repurchase Right Notification for 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2028.
WGO: To offer $300 million aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2030.
Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.
News After The Close :
After Hours Movers:
MRAI: +52% Insider Purchase
HTZ: +6% Upgraded to OVERWEIGHT @ MS
BTU: +6% to Join S&P SmallCap 600
RCM: +3.5% Completes Acquisition of Acclara
GRAB: +3% Upgraded to OVERWEIGHT @ JPM
ARAV: -53% to Delist from The Nasdaq Stock Market
PLUG: -15% Form 8K.. entered into an At Market Issuance Sales Agreement
ROI: -12% Filed Form S-3.. $25,000,000 Mixed Shelf
DFS: -8% Earnings
SURG: -7.5% Proposed Public Offering
TALO: -5% Public Offering of Common Stock
ELF: -2.5% to Join S&P MidCap 400
AA: -2% Earnings
News Items After the Close:
Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: DFS, AA, TALO, PLUG, FUL (CNBC)
Apple (AAPL) to Sell Watches Without Oxygen Feature After Legal Setback. (Bloomberg)
Apple's (AAPL) Vision Pro Won't Launch With Netflix (NFLX) App. (Bloomberg)
Discover (DFS) shares drop as company sets aside an extra $1 billion to guard against souring credit. (MarketWatch)
Sheryl Sandberg says she’s leaving META’s board. (CNBC)
Plug Power’s (PLUG) plan to sell stock is latest blow amid liquidity, supply challenges. (MarketWatch)
MSCI categorically refutes the claims from short-seller report released today. (Reuters)
Google's (GOOGL) CEO Sundar Pichai indicates more job cuts in 2024, focusing on AI investments. In a recent memo, he highlighted the need for 'tough choices' to achieve 'ambitious goals,' hinting at role eliminations and organizational streamlining. (CNBC)
Mercury (MRCY) initiated workforce reduction to eliminate approximately 100 positions.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
Index Changes: e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) to join S&P MidCap 400; Peabody Energy (BTU) to join S&P SmallCap 600.
Allbirds (BIRD) Announces Executive Leadership Appointments.
Goodyear (GT) to Name Stellantis Exec as CEO After Elliott Push. (Bloomberg)
Mitek Systems (MITK) announces extension of Nasdaq Stay and hearing date.
Origin Agritech (SEED) Announces Appeal of Nasdaq Delisting Letter.
Quantum (QMCO) Announces Update on Plan to Regain Nasdaq Compliance and Delayed Form 10-Q Filing.
Sarcos (STRC) Welcomes Back Co-Founder and Former CEO Ben Wolff to Lead Company Following Pivot to Industrial AI Software Focus.
Target (TGT) Announces Michael Fiddelke as Chief Operating Officer.
Buyback Announcements or News:
ONEOK (OKE) authorizes $2 billion share repurchase program. (see Dividends)
Stock Splits or News:
Nuvve (NVVE) announces 1-for-40 reverse stock split.
PBLA to trade reverse stock split 1/20 price today.
Processa Pharmaceuticals (PCSA) to Effect a 1-for-20 Reverse Stock Split.
Dividends Announcements or News:
Fastenal (FAST) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.39 per share from $0.35 per share.
ONEOK (OKE) increases quarterly cash dividend 3.7% to $0.99 per share from $0.955 per share.
Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.
S&P 500 +20, Dow Jones -56, NASDAQ +152, and Russell 2000 +12. (as of 7:53 a.m. EST). Asia is lower ex South Korea and Europe are higher this morning. VIX Futures are at 15.15 from 14.87 this morning. Gold and Silver are higher with Copper lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are higher with Natural Gas higher as well. US 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.086% from 4.06% yesterday morning. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $42,354 from $42,601 lower by -0.77% this morning.
Sector Action:
Daily Positive Sectors: None of note.
Daily Negative Sectors: Real Estate, Utilities, Basic Materials, Energy, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Communication Services, Financial of note.
U.S. stock indexes fell deeper into negative territory for 2024 as investors dialed back their expectations for how quickly the Federal Reserve might start cutting interest rates. The S&P 500 fell 0.6% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.3%, or about 94 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite declined 0.6%. The S&P 500 is down 0.6% in 2024, while the Dow and Nasdaq are off 1.1% and 1%, respectively. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note, meanwhile, rose to 4.103%, its highest 3 p.m. level in more than a month, from 4.064% on Tuesday. (WSJ - edited by QPI)
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software - sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
Thursday After the Close:
Friday Before the Open:
Earnings of Note This Morning:
Beats: BIRK +0.36, TFC +0.13, WNS +0.09, TSM +0.06, FHN +0.05, CBSH +0.02, KEY +0.02, FAST +0.01 of note.
Misses: NTRS (0.83), MTB (0.36), TCBI (0.24) of note.
Still to Report: HOMB of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
Positive Guidance: KMI, RAMP, WNS, BIRK of note.
Negative Guidance: VUZI, BTMD, CZR of note.
Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:
Gap Up: RAMP +8%, BTU +6%, TSM +5%, NGL +5%, IMTX +5%, LUXH +5% of note.
Gap Down: PLUG -16%, DFS -11%, BTMD -7%, WTFC -7%, TALO -5% of note.
Insider Action: PBF, WVE sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
Bloomberg Lead Story: Pakistan's Army strikes back at Iranas Both Sides Urge Calm. (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg Most Shared Story: Blinken's return from Davos delayed after plane breaks down. (Bloomberg)
Stocks and Futures rebound as chipmakers climb: Markets Wrap. (Bloomberg)
Why Jamie Dimon should have more faith in the U.S. (Barron's)
Humana (HUM) cuts 2024 outlook on higher Medicare costs. (Bloomberg)
Birkenstock (BIRK) sees fast growth in first quarter since IPO. (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg Odd Lots: US Oil is booming and its upending global makets. (Podcast)
NPR Marketplace: Spot Bitcoin investment funds to stoke miners' massive energy use. (Podcast)
NY Times Daily: What the Houthis really want? (Podcast)
Moving Average Update: Score notches down to 57% from 68%.
Geopolitical:
President’s Public Schedule:
The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:00 a.m. EST
The President departs the White House en route to Joint Base Andrews, 11:40 a.m. EST
The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route to Raleigh, North Carolina, 12:00 p.m. EST
Principal Deputy Press Secretary Olivia Dalton and NSC Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby will speak aboard Air Force One en route to the Raleigh, North Carolina, 12:30 p.m. EST
The President arrives in Raleigh, North Carolina, 1:00 p.m. EST
The President delivers remarks on how his Bidenomics and Investing in America Agenda are repairing and rebuilding our infrastructure, lowering costs, supporting a small business boom, and creating good-paying jobs, 2:15 p.m. EST
The President departs Raleigh, North Carolina en route to Joint Base Andrews, 5:25 p.m. EST
The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route to the White House, 6:25 p.m. EST
The President arrives at the White House, 6:35 p.m. EST
Economic:
December Housing Starts are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 1,430,000 from 1,417,000.
Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EST
December Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and to improve to -8.0 from -10.50.
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EST
EIA Petroleum Report 11:00 a.m. EST
10-Yr TIPS Auction 1:00 p.m. EST
Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:
Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic 7:30 a.m. EST and 12:05 p.m. EST
From 7:30 speech:
Inflation Seems To Be On Path To 2% Target.
I have seen some slowing in the labor market, it's now more balanced.
M&A Activity and News:
biote Corp. (BTMD) to acquire F.H. Investments, Inc., d/b/a Asteria Health, a privately held 503B manufacturer of compounded bioidentical hormones; purchase price is $8.5 million
Dover (DOV) acquires Transchem Group.
LiveRamp (RAMP) to Acquire Habu to accelerate the power of data collaboration in a cash and stock transaction valued at approximately $200 million.
Taro Pharm (TARO) agrees to be acquired by Sun Pharma for $43 per share.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
Sellside Conferences:
B. Riley Healthcare Conference
B. Riley Securities Oncology Conference
Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
CIBC Western Institutional Investor Conference (01/16/24-01/18/24)
Fierce JPM Week
Needham Growth Conference (01/15/24-01/18/24)
Sidoti Micro Cap Investor Conference (01/16/24-01/17/24)
Sachs Innovation Forum
Top Shareholder Meetings: AMST, APVO, INTU, MU, NGVC, OGI, SMPL
Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AES
World Economic Forum Annual Meeting
Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.
Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades: