QPI Morning Note For 5/20/25: Home Depot Misses on Earnings But Beats on Revenues, Stocks Mixed

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

• The S&P 500 finished Monday higher by 0.09% at 5963.60 from Friday higher by 0.70% at 5958.38. Futures are lower this morning by -68 (-1.13%) at 5945 around 6:50 a.m. EDT. The cash range is now 200 points on the S&P 500 cash for the year, 5900 to 6100. Year to date the S&P 500 is up 1.39% from 1.30% on Friday's close.

Executive Summary: A quiet day with no major economic data but lots of Fed speak.

Breaking News:

• Yields on the 30-Year are back below 5.00%.

Key Events of Note Today:

• President Trump meets with the House GOP.

• Weekly API Petroleum Institute Data is due out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

• Beats: TCOM +0.59, AGYS +0.25, TRNS +0.09 of note.

• Misses: None of note.

• Flat: EGHT of note.

Capital Raises:

• IPOs For The Week: None of note.

• New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.

• IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.

• Secondaries Filed or Priced:

  • RHP announces offering of 2.3 million shares of common stock

  • CHSN: FORM F-1 Up to- 25,000,000 Class A Ordinary Shares -Up to 25,000,000 Pre-Funded Warrants.

  • ICU: FORM S-1 - Up to 4,736,406 Shares Common Stock

  • MYNZ - Pricing of $4.0 Million Follow-On Offering of Ordinary Shares and Warrants

  • SARO: FORM S-1 - 221,637,524 Shares Common Stock

  • SHOT: Form S-1.. 1,233,507 Shares of Common Stock

• Notes Priced: None of note.

• Notes Files: None of note.

• Convertibles Filed: None of note.

• Direct Offering: None of note.

• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.

• Private Placements: None of note.

• Selling Shareholders of note:

  • DBVT files for 289,013,065 ordinary share offering by selling shareholders.

  • SARO files for 221,637,524 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.

• Mixed Shelf Offerings:

  • IDR files for $35 million mixed securities shelf offering.

News After The Close:

• Ryman Hospitality (RHP) acquires JW Marriott Phoenix Desert Ridge Resort & Spa for $865 million from Trinity Investments.

• Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR), in partnership with Brigade Capital Management and Macellum Capital Management, announces that Duncan MacNaughton will serve as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Family Dollar following the close of the previously announced divestiture at the end of Q2.

• DOJ to investigate customer data theft at Coinbase (COIN).

• Pegasystems (PEGA) will replace Nordstrom (JWN) in the S&P MidCap 400 effective prior to the opening of trading on Thursday, May 22.

• 10K or Qs Filings/Delays – (Filed), (Delayed) None of note.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

• TALO appoints Gregory Babcock as interim CFO, effective June 28

• AIN announces resignation of CFO Robert Starr, effective May 23; Jairaj Chetnani appointed as interim CFO as conducts a formal search for Mr. Starr’s successor.

Buybacks:

• VRTX authorizes $4 bln share repurchase program.

• CXW authorizes additional $150 mln for share repurchase.

• VRRM authorizes a stock repurchase program to repurchase up to $100 million of its outstanding shares of Class A common stock.

Dividends Announcements or News:

• Stocks Ex Div Today: REGN E VLO PRU TS SNA FTI WLK LPX ZWS TFX INGM CON STR IOSP KRP NRP PRG of note.

• Stocks Ex Div Wednesday EQIX AFL MPC TEL ADM CNH HAS ALV CHRD ORA EE POWL OSW DHT ENT SILA of note:

Stocks Moving Up & Down Yesterday:

• Gap Up: ASPI +9.4%, PEGA +8.4%, SNDX +4.4%, IBP +3.8%, of note.

• Gap Down: YALA -12.6%, SARO -4.1%, AMRC -3.4%, RHP -2.7%, DLTR -2.2% of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:25 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 -10, NASDAQ -49, Dow Jones -6, Russell 2000 . Europe is higher and Asia is higher ex China. Bonds are at 4.463% from 4.554% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold and Silver are higher with Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $105,285 from $102,989 lower by $-69 (-0.05%).

Sector Action:

• Daily Positive Sectors: Healthcare, Consumer Defensive, Industrials and Utilities of note.

• Daily Negative Sectors: Energy, Consumer Cyclical and Technology of note.

• One Month Winners: Industrials, Financials, Technology, Materials and Utilities of note.

• Three-Month Winners: Consumer Defensive and Utilities of note.

• Six-Month Winners: Financials, Consumer Defensive, Communication Services and Utilities of note.

• Twelve-Month Winners: Financials, Communication Services, Utilities, Technology, Consumer Defensive and Consumer Cyclical of note.

• Year to Date Winners: Utilities, Materials, Consumer Defensive and Financials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Tuesday After the Close: PANW ZTO JHX TOL MOD SKY VSAT

• Wednesday Before The Open: TJX LOW MDT TGT BIDU DY VFC GOOS

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Flat: None of note

• Beats: BILI +0.33, AS +0.12, VIPS +0.08, VIK +0.05 of note.

• Misses: HD -0.04, EXP -0.36 of note.

• Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: None of note.

• Negative or Mixed Guidance: AGYS of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D Line continues to improved.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

• Gap Up: XYF +15.5%, ASPI +14.9%, AS +10.7%, PONY +8.5%, PEGA +6.5%, BILI +5.6%, TRNS +4.7%, EGHT +3.9%, VRRM +3.1%, AGYS +2.4%, SB +2.2%, HD +2.2%, PPTA +2%, INVA +2% of note.

• Gap Down: YALA -9.1%, AMRC -8.2%, VIPS -8.2%, DBVT -4.3%, SARO -3.8%, TCOM -3.6%, PRCH -2.8%, RHP -2.2% of note.

Insider Action: None sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• Bloomberg Lead Story: Tesla Supplier CATL comes public in biggest deal of the year. (Bloomberg)

• Markets Wrap: US Stock rally to pause after six day run. (Bloomberg).

• Home Depot (HD) says will not raise prices due to tariffs. (CNBC)

• JP Morgan CEO says markets are too complacement on tariffs.

Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.

Economic & Geopolitical:

• Economic Releases:

  • Weekly Petroleum Institute Data is out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.

• Federal Reserve Speakers of note today.

  • Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic and Richmond President Thomas Barkin speak at 9:00 a.m. EDT.

  • Federal Reserve St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

  • Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Jugler speaks at 5:00 p.m. EDT.

  • Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly speaks at 7:00 p.m. EDT.

• President Trump's Daily Schedule.

  • President Trump to speak at the House GOP Conference Meeting at 9:00 a.m. EDT.

  • President Trump participates in the Take Our Sons and Daughters to Work Day at 11:55 a.m. EDT.

  • Press Briefing for Take Our Sons and Daughters to Work Day at 1:00 p.m. EDT with Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.

M&A Activity and News: None of note.

Moving Average Table: Moves from 97% to 94% on Equity Indexes.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:

  • Barclays Emerging Payments and FinTech Forum

  • Bank of America Ag Tech Conference

  • Canaccord Genuity Metals & Mining Conference

  • Evercore ISI Biotechnology Summit

  • HC Wainwright BioConnect Investor Conference

  • JP Morgan Homebuilding and Building Products

  • JP Morgan Quantum Conference

  • KBW Real Estate Finance & Technology Conf

  • Oppenheimer Israeli Conference

  • RBC Capital Markets Global Healthcare Conf

  • Sidoti Micro-Cap Conference

  • Truist Securities Financial Services Conference

  • Wolfe Research Global Transportation & Industrials Conference

• Shareholder Meetings: BMRN, GAP, HON, JPM, MCD, NOV, TRGP, WB

• Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: ALXO, DRUG, DVLT, FUN, LNW, MVIS, NCNO, OGEN

• Fireside Chat: None of note.

• R&D Day: None of note.

• FDA Presentation: None of note.

• Industry Meetings or Events:

  • Aegis Capital Corp. Conference

  • American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO)

  • Google I/O

  • Microsoft Build

  • National Restaurant Association (NRA) Show

  • NYSE Energy Infrastructure CEO & Investor Conf

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.

Upgrades: AL ERII KNTK MKSI MTD of note.

Downgrades: AES ASAN of note.