QPI Morning Note For 07/10/25: Stocks Up Slightly, Delta Beats and Trumps Hits Brazil With 50% Tariff

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

• The S&P 500 finished Wednesday higher by 0.61% at 6263.26 from Tuesday lower by -0.07% at 6225.52.

• Futures are lower this morning by -8 (+0.13%) at 6299 on the S&P 500 around 6:20 a.m. EDT.

• Year to date the S&P 500 is up by 6.49% from 5.85% on Tuesday's close.

Executive Summary:

• Our comment that, "The top catalyst this week will be tariff deadlines on Wednesday", was right on target. Some are calling this Liberation Day 2. On the first Liberation Day, the S&P 500 fell -4.84% by the close of April 3rd. So far the S&P 500 is down by -0.26% this week. Expect the "tape bombs" from Trump to slow down since we are beyond the deadline.

Breaking News:

• Delta (DAL) beats but lower guidance from where it was in January. Stocks up 11.50% not on a short squeeze. CEO being interviewed on CNBC.

Key Events of Note Today:

• Economic news of note today include Initial Claims and Natural Gas Inventories.

• 30-Year Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

• Fed Speak of note today. 3 speakers of note.

• President Trump receives the Intelligence Briefing today.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

• Beats: AZZ +0.20 of note.

• Misses: None of note.

• Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises:

• IPOs For The Week: None of note.

• New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.

• IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.

• Secondaries Filed or Priced:

  • RYTM announces proposed public offering of $150 million of common stock.

• Notes Priced: None of note.

• Notes Files: None of note.

• Convertibles Filed: None of note.

• Direct Offering: None of note.

• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.

• Private Placements: None of note.

• Selling Shareholders of note:

  • PLUG files for 31.5 million share common stock offering by selling shareholder.

• Mixed Shelf Offerings:

  • STOK files for $400 million mixed securities shelf offering.

News After The Close:

• Costco (COST) reports June comparable sales of +6.2% (excluding gas and FX); e-Commerce adjusted comps of +11.2%.

• WK Kellogg (KLG) surging +50% after hours on report Ferrero is nearing deal to acquire KLG for $3 bln. (WSJ)

• Autodesk (ADSK) is weighing acquisition of PTC. (Bloomberg)

• President Trump imposes 50% tariff on Brazilian goods in response to Bolsonaro trial and trade imbalance. (CNBC)

Buybacks of Note:

• AGCO announces new $1 billion share repurchase program.

• DLTR announces $2.5 billion share repurchase authorization.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

• KBR announces the resignation of COO Byron Bright, effective on July 11.

Dividends Announcements or News

• Stocks Ex Div Today of note: ORCL INTU VZ TD GIS DRI UDR LNC KAI BRC

• Stocks Ex Div Friday of note: MRVL AMX IEX MORN SNX TOL SAIC AAP AEO

Stocks Moving Up & Down After The Close:

• Gap Up: KLG +54.3%, PSNL +10%, AGCO +2.7% of note.

• Gap Down: MREO -36.1%, RARE -27.6%, ERJ -5.7%, ONL -5.1%, PLUG -3.4% of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:45 a.m. EDT)

• Futures S&P 500 +2, NASDAQ 100 +14, Dow Jones -19. Europe is higher while Asia is lower ex Australia. Bond yields are lower at 4.342% from 4.403% on the 10-Year on Thursday. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas is higher. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $111,111 from $108,859 higher by $39 from yesterday (+0.03%).

Sector Action:

• Daily Positive Sectors: Technology,Healthcare, Utilities, Industrials and Communication Services led the way higher.

• Daily Negative Sectors: Energy and Consumer Defensive led the downside.

• One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Energy, Industrials and Financials of note.

• Three-Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals and Utilities of note.

• Six-Month Winners: Financials, Utilities, Industrials, Materials and Communication Services of note.

• Twelve-Month Winners: Financials, Communication Services, Utilities, Technology, Consumer Cyclical, and Industrials of note.

• Year to Date Winners: Communication, Services Materials, Financials, Utilities, Industrials and Technology of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Today After the Close: LEVI PSMT WDFC of note.

• Friday Before The Open: None of note.

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beats: DAL +0.04, SMPL +0.01 of note.

• Misses: HELE -0.44 of note.

• Still to Report: CAG of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: DAL of note.

• Negative or Mixed Guidance: AXTI of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D Line improved on Wednesday.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

• GapUp: KLG +52.6%, MP +30.3%, NRIX +29.4%, PSNL +4.6%, BHP +3.9%, RIO +3.6%, TNXP +3%, RMNI +3%, FCX +2.9%, ALVO +2.4%, CLF +2.4%, ASX +2.4%, SCCO +2.1%, ORCL +2% of note.

• GapDown: MREO -35.9%, RARE -22%, MEI -16.6%, AXTI -11.4%, TLX -11.3%, PCYO -6%, ERJ -4.3%, SLNO -3.9%, RYTM -3.4%, ITUB -3%, ASIX -2.4%, ORLA -2.2%, MBLY -2.1%, EWZ -2%, of note.

Insider Action: No names sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. No names see Insider Buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• Bloomberg Lead Story: Trump's 50% Tariff on Brazil Shows World Nothing Is Off Limits. (Bloomberg)

• Markets Wrap: European stocks extend gains. (Bloomberg).

• Five Things to Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)

• Taiwan Semi (TSM) revenue jumps 39% as AI spending boom continues. (Bloomberg)

• Delta (DAL) reinstates 2025 profit target as demand rebounds. (Bloomberg)

• Chinese property stocks pop on "unreported" reports of state aid. (Bloomberg)

• Wealthion: Stablecoin key to new financial system. (Podcast)

• The Big Take: China wants 115,000 Nividia Chips to power data centers in the desert. (Podcast)

• Odd Lots: How a geopolitical analyst forecasts war. (Podcast)

• Thoughtful Money: Economy is a "Slow Motion" Train Wreck in Progress. (Podcast)

Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.

Economic & Geopolitical:

• Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: 3 of note.

  • Federal Reserve St. Louis President Alberto Musalem at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

  • Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller at 1:15 p.m. EDT.

  • Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly at 2:30 p.m. EDT.

• Economic Releases:

  • Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

  • Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

• President Trump's Daily Schedule.

  • President Trump receives the Intelligence Briefing at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

M&A Activity: None of note.

Moving Average Table: Equities move from 90% to 97%. Bonds saw improvement.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:

  • Bank of America Washington D.C. Healthcare Conf

  • CJS Annual New Ideas Summer Conference

  • KeyBanc Asia Supply Chain & Semiconductor Takeaways

• Shareholder Meetings: CHWY, MAG, PL

• Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: HPE, REGN, SGRY

• Fireside Chat: None of note.

• FDA Presentation: None of note.

• R&D Day: None of note.

• Meetings:

  • Amazon Prime Day Shopping Event

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.

Upgrades: CAMD CG HII MCD EQIX MU of note.

Downgrades: COIN CRK WDAY SWKS of note.