QPI Morning Note For 07/08/25: Stocks Pause The Selling, Will it Resume Today?
Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:
The S&P 500 finished Monday lower by -0.79% at 6229.98 from Thursday higher by 0.83% at 6279.35 .
Futures are higher this morning by +2.75 (+0.04%) at 6278.75 on the S&P 500 around 6:05 a.m. EDT.
Year to date the S&P 500 is up by 5.92% from 6.78% on Thursday's close.
Executive Summary:
Our comment that, "The top catalyst this week will be tariff deadlines on Wednesday", was right on target. Key to the rest of the week is today's follow-up to yesterday. Some are calling this Liberation Day 2. On the first Liberation Day, the S&P 500 fell -4.84% by the close of April 3rd. So this was much less and markets seem to take it rather well.
Breaking News:
Monthly NFIB Small Business Optimism for June came in at 98.6 from 98.8 this morning.
Key Events of Note Today:
Economic news of note today include NFIB Small Business Optimism (see above), Consumer Credit and API Petroleum Data.
52 Week Bill Auction at 11:30 a.m. EDT. 3-Year Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
Fed Speak of note today. Federal Governor Barr, Fed Chairman Powell and Fed Governor Bowman.
President Trump holds a cabinet meeting at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close:
Beats: None of note.
Misses: None of note.
Flat: None of note.
Capital Raises:
IPOs For The Week: None of note.
New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
Secondaries Filed or Priced:
GAME - Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.
SXTP: Form S-1.. Up to 2,036,659 Shares of Common Stock.
Notes Priced:
TDW - Closing of $650 Million Offering of 9.125% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2030 and Entering into $250 Million Revolving Credit Facility.
WPC Pricing of $400 Million of Senior Unsecured Notes.
Notes Files: None of note.
Convertibles Filed: None of note.
Direct Offering: None of note.
Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
Private Placements: None of note.
Selling Shareholders of note:
Mixed Shelf Offerings:
TECX files for $400 million mixed securities shelf offering.
News After The Close:
Grupo Aeroportuario Del Sureste (ASR) announces that total passenger traffic for June 2025 reached a total of 6.0 million passengers, representing a decrease of 1.8% compared to June 2024.
Granite Construction (GVA) announces CM/GC project at San Francisco International Airport.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) sees Q2 impacted by upstream liquids prices, gas prices and industry margin pressure.
DTE Energy (DTE) in presentation slides issues inline FY25 EPS guidance, capex guidance.
Biogen (BIIB) notes that estimated charge is expected to impact GAAP and non-GAAP net income per diluted share for the Q2 2025 by about ($0.26) per share.
President Trump unveils more letters sent to countries on Tariff levels than several that went out during market hours. (Bloomberg)
President Trump states close to a deal with India and may adjust tariffs for some countries.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
MMSI names Martha Aronson as CEO; also guides Q2 revs above consensus.
FELE appoints Jennifer Wolfenbarger as CFO.
Buybacks:
TTBK increases buyback program by $500 million.
Dividends Announcements or News
Stocks Ex Div Today of note: ROP DG TIGO MAIN GBCI SLVM OPRA PFBC
Stocks Ex Div Wednesday of note: None of note.
Stocks Moving Up & Down After The Close:
Gap Up: ARRY (7.79 +20.89%), MMSI +4.8%, PBBK +3%, ASR +2.7%, CBLL +2% of note.
Gap Down: None of note.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:50 a.m. EDT)
Futures S&P 500 +9, NASDAQ 100 +62, Dow Jones -10. Europe is higher ex the STOXX600 while Asia is high. Bond yields are lower at 4.415% from 4.351% on the 10-Year on Thursday. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas higher. Gold is lower with Silver and Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $108,859 from $108.700 higher by $720 from yesterday (+0.20%).
Sector Action:
Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Defensive led the way higher.
Daily Negative Sectors: All others led the downside.
One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Energy, Industrials and Financials of note.
Three-Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals and Utilities of note.
Six-Month Winners: Financials, Utilities, Industrials, Materials and Communication Services of note.
Twelve-Month Winners: Financials, Communication Services, Utilities, Technology, Consumer Cyclical, and Industrials of note.
Year to Date Winners: Communication, Services Materials, Financials, Utilities, Industrials and Technology of note.
Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
Today After the Close: PENG AEHR of note.
Wednesday Before The Open: None of note.
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
Beats: None of note.
Misses: None of note.
Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
Positive Guidance: None of note.
Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D Line stalled yesterday.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
Gap Up: BSGM +23%, CRGX +6.4%, NBTX +5%, IBRX +3.3%, MMSI +3.1%, ASR +2.8%, FFAI +2.6%, PBBK +2.5%, CBLL +2% of note.
Gap Down: TECX -1.4%, XOM -0.5%, NVS -0.5% of note.
Insider Action: No names sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. No names see Insider Buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
Bloomberg Lead Story: Trump Issues New Tariff Rates, But Still Open To Negotiation. (Bloomberg)
Markets Wrap: Stocks hold steady as Trump buys time. (Bloomberg).
Five Things to Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)
The S&P 500 rally is leaving many stocks behind. (Bloomberg)
Odd Lots: Eating steak with Taleb and McElligot. (Podcast)
The Big Take: The next big chapter in Trump's Trade War. (Podcast)
Thoughtful Money: Precursor to Mayhem: Mike Green. (Podcast)
Wealthion: Copper Stocks have more long-term gains ahead. (Podcast)
Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.
Economic & Geopolitical:
Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
Federal Reserve Governor Barr speaks at 9:15 a.m. EDT.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
Federal Reserve Governor Bowman speaks at 1:30 p.m. EDT.
Economic Releases:
June NFIB Small Business Optimism is due out at 6:00 a.m. EDT and came in May at 98.80.
May Consumer Credit is due out at 3:00 p.m. EDT and expected to come in at $12.2 billion from $17.9 billion.
Weekly API Petroleum Data is out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
President Trump's Daily Schedule.
President Trump holds a cabinet meeting at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
M&A Activity: None of note.
Moving Average Table: Equities move from 100% to 97%. Bonds lose more ground. Soft got hammered yesterday.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
Sellside Conferences:
TD Cowen Calgary Energy, Power & Utilities Conference
Shareholder Meetings: None of note.
Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: None of note.
Fireside Chat: None of note.
FDA Presentation: None of note.
R&D Day: None of note.
Meetings:
AI First Lounge
BRICS Summit
Federation of European Biochemical Societies (FEBS) Congress
Topgolf Block Party
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.
Upgrades: CADE COF GD PSN of note.
Downgrades: BRSP CIEN FHB CRCL of note.