QPI Morning Note For 07/02/25: Banks Up Dividends As They Pass Fed Stress Tests. Stocks Up Modestly.
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Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:
The S&P 500 finished Tuesday lower by -0.11% at 6198.01 from Monday higher by 0.52% at 6204.95.
Futures are higher this morning by +7.75 (+0.12%) at 6256.50 on the S&P 500 around 6:15 a.m. EDT.
Year to date the S&P 500 is up by 5.38% from 5.50% on Monday's close.
Executive Summary:
Yesterday saw rotation into Value names with strong cash flows from Technology momentum names. One day event or more to go?
Chart of the Day: Can Apple (AAPL) get its groove back? CNBC called for the stock to move to $238. EVS has turned up as well as ETD moving to rally mode. However, there are no shorts in the name to add fuel to the name.
Key Events of Note Today:
ADP Employment due out today along with Weekly Crude Oil Inventories.
Fed Speak of note today. See below for details.
President Trump has no events scheduled.
Quote of the Day: "Why do I rob banks? That's where the money is". - Willie Sutton
Notable Earnings Out After The Close:
Beats: GBX +0.88 of note.
Misses: STZ -0.09 of note.
Flat: None of note.
Capital Raises:
IPOs For The Week: None of note.
New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
Secondaries Filed or Priced:
AVBP announces proposed $75 million public offering of common stock and pre-funded warrants.
RKT files for common stock offering.
Notes Priced: None of note.
Notes Files: None of note.
Convertibles Filed: None of note.
Direct Offering: None of note.
Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
Private Placements: None of note.
Selling Shareholders of note:
ACOG files for 2,375,735 share common stock offering by selling shareholders
Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.
News After The Close:
Unum Group (UNM) closes $3.4 billion long-term care reinsurance transaction with Fortitude Re.
American Water Works (AWK) signed agreements to acquire the Indian Creek Valley Water Authority and the Sutersville-Sewickley Municipal Sewage Authority for $32.8 mln.
Major Banks out with comments on Fed Stress Tests with many increasing dividends.
Centene (CNC) withdrawing its previous 2025 GAAP and adjusted EPS guidance.
Verint Systems (VRNT) posting sizable gains as Thoma Bravo is in talks to acquire the company. (Bloomberg)
LMT awarded a Missile Defense Agency contract with a ceiling of $2.97 billion.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
ORKA promotes Laura Sandler to COO.
Buybacks:
MS authorizes a renewed $20 billion multi-year common equity share repurchase program.
JPM approves $50 billion share buyback.
Dividends Announcements or News
Stocks Ex Div Today of note: RSG ITUB ACM BRX ESE HASI of note.
Stocks Ex Div Thursday of note: None of note.
OZK increases quarterly dividend 2.33% to $0.44 per share
BAC plans to increase quarterly dividend 8% to $0.28/share.
MS increases quarterly cash dividend to $1.00/share from $0.93/share.
STT announces planned 11% dividend increase to $0.84/share.
WFC to raise dividend by 12.5% to $0.45/share.
PNC an increase in the quarterly cash dividend on common stock of 10 cents per share, or 6%, to $1.70 per share.
JPM boosts dividend to $1.50/share from $1.40/share.
BK increases quarterly cash dividend 13% to $0.53/share from $0.47/share.
GS will 33% increase in the common stock dividend from $3.00 to $4.00 per share.
Stocks Moving Up & Down After The Close:
Gap Up: GBX +12.3% VRNT +10.3%, ACOG +6.6%, HI +2.3%, AMPY +2% of note.
Gap Down: CNC -23.7%, TTGT -10.9%, BV -10.5%, DFDV -7.8%, AVBP -5.7%, of note.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:50 a.m. EDT)
Futures S&P 500 +7, NASDAQ 100 -4, Dow Jones +104. Europe is higher while Asia is lower ex Australia. Bond yields are lower at 4.283% from 4.195% on the 10-Year on Monday. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas higher. Gold, Silver and Copper higher for a second day in a row. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $107,876 from $106,627 higher by $2297 (-2.18%).
Sector Action:
Daily Positive Sectors: Materials, Healthcare, Consumer Defensive, Real Estate and Financials led the way higher.
Daily Negative Sectors: Technology and Communications Services led the way lower.
One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Energy, Industrials and Financials of note.
Three-Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals and Utilities of note.
Six-Month Winners: Financials, Utilities, Industrials, Materials and Communication Services of note.
Twelve-Month Winners: Financials, Communication Services, Utilities, Technology, Consumer Cyclical, and Industrials of note.
Year to Date Winners: Communication, Services Materials, Financials, Utilities, Industrials and Technology of note.
Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (FXrom Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
Today After the Close: None of note.
Thursday Before The Open: None of note.
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
Beats: None of note.
Misses: None of note.
Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
Positive Guidance: None of note.
Negative or Mixed Guidance: CNC of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D Line is in consolidation mode.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
Gap Up: VRNT +12.6%, GBX +12.1%, SAN +2.5% of note.
Gap Down: CNC -27.3%, TTGT -12.3%, ELV -4.0% of note.
Insider Action: No names sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. No names see Insider Buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
Bloomberg Lead Story: Trump Tax Bill Hits Resistance In The House. (Bloomberg)
Markets Wrap: Stocks hold steady as traders watch trade talks. (Bloomberg).
Trump threatens 35% tariff on Japan. (Bloomberg)
Five Things to Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)
House GOP does not have the vote to pass BBB. (CNBC)
Mortgage Refinancings surged last week. (CNBC)
Figma files for IPO. Adobe had tried to take over a couple years ago. (CNBC)
Odd Lots: Greatest panel on Treasury market. (Podcast)
The Big Take: America's Overheated Landfills. (Podcast)
Thoughtful Money: No Trust Left by Millennials and GenZ. (Podcast)
Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.
Economic & Geopolitical:
Federal Reserve Speakers of note today
None of note.
Economic Releases:
June ADP Employment Report is due out at 8:15 AM ET and expected to risel to 97,000 from 37,000.
Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
President Trump's Daily Schedule.
President Trump has a quiet day with no events scheduled. He will probably be working the phones to get the BBB through the House.
M&A Activity: None of note.
Moving Average Table: Move from 97% to 100% for Equities. Bonds continue to improve.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
Sellside Conferences: None of note.
Shareholder Meetings: None of note.
Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: None of note.
Fireside Chat: None of note.
FDA Presentation: None of note.
R&D Day: None of note.
Meetings: None of note.
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.
Upgrades: NHI ROST XYZ EO of note.
Downgrades: STLA CROX DECK OSCR of note.