QPI Morning Note For 07/01/25: Stocks Modestly Lower After Records Hit on S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100

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Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

• The S&P 500 finished Monday higher by 0.52% at 6204.95 from Friday higher by 0.52% at 6173.07.

• Futures are lower this morning by -12.50 (-0.20%) at 6241.75 around 6:00 a.m. EDT.

• Year to date the S&P 500 is up by 5.50% from 4.96% on Thursday's close.

Executive Summary:

• Well, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 are above their February highs but the Russell 2000 and S&P 400 Mid Cap have more to go before they clear their recent highs. Both hit their recent highs in late 2024. It will probably take a couple of months for those indexes to clear their highs.

Key Events of Note Today:

• Economic data due out today ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending along with Weekly API Petroleum Inventories.

• Fed Speak of note today. 3 speakers up today. See below for details.

• President Trump signs Executive Orders at 2:30 p.m. EDT.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

• Beats: PRGS +0.10 of note.

• Misses: None of note.

• Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises:

• IPOs For The Week: None of note.

• New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.

• IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.

• Secondaries Filed or Priced:

  • NKTR commences stock offering.

  • DYN announces proposed public offering of $200 million of common stock.

  • AVAV announces proposed offerings of $750 million of common stocks.

• Notes Priced: None of note.

• Notes Files: None of note.

• Convertibles Filed:

  • AVAV files $600 million of convertible senior notes due 2030.

• Direct Offering: None of note.

• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.

• Private Placements: None of note.

• Selling Shareholders of note:

  • VCTR files for 23,035,771 share common stock offering by selling shareholder.

  • ADCT files for 27,726,052 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.

• Mixed Shelf Offerings:

  • AVAV files mixed securities shelf offering.

  • CPF files for $300 million mixed securities shelf offering.

News After The Close:

• BGC Group (BGC) expects Q2 revenue and pre-tax adjusted earnings to be slightly above previously stated outlook ranges.

• Circle (CRCL) formally submitted an application to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish a national trust bank.

• Potential TikTok acquirer is same consortium behind previously stalled bid. (Bloomberg)

• President Trump signed a memorandum today strengthening U.S. policy towards Cuba, reversing policy put in place by President Biden. (Reuters)

• GD awarded a $150 million US Army contract.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

• BA announces that Jesus "Jay" Malave has been elected as incoming CFO, effective August 15.

Buybacks: None of note.

Dividends Announcements or News

• Stocks Ex Div Today of note: None of note.

• Stocks Ex Div Tuesday of note: None of note.

Stocks Moving Up & Down After The Close:

• Gap Up: INMB +82.3%,TOI +2.9%, IMAB +2.1% of note.

• Gap Down: DYN -9.7%, AVAV -6.5%, PRGS -3.7%of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:35 a.m. EDT)

• Futures S&P 500 -13, NASDAQ 100 -51, Dow Jones -43. Europe is lower while Asia is lower ex China. Bond yields are lower at 4.195% from 4.255% on the 10-Year on Monday. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $106,627 from $107,511 lower by $-916 (-0.86%).

Sector Action:

• Daily Positive Sectors: Technology, Financials, Healthcare and Communication Services led the way higher.

• Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Cyclical and Energy led the way lower.

• One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Energy, Industrials and Financials of note.

• Three-Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals and Utilities of note.

• Six-Month Winners: Financials, Utilities, Industrials, Materials and Communication Services of note.

• Twelve-Month Winners: Financials, Communication Services, Utilities, Technology, Consumer Cyclical, and Industrials of note.

• Year to Date Winners: Communication, Services Materials, Financials, Utilities, Industrials and Technology of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (FXrom Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Today After the Close: STZ GBX of note.

• Tuesday Before The Open: UNF of note.

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beats: None of note.

• Misses: None of note.

• Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: None of note.

• Negative or Mixed Guidance: CNXC of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D Line is in consolidation mode.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

• Gap Up: ATAI +9.8%, H +1.8% of note.

• Gap Down: PRGS -6.8%, AVAV -5.9%, TSLA -4.5%, NKTR -3.5% of note.

Insider Action: No names sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. No names see Insider Buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• Bloomberg Lead Story: Senate Pull All Nighter, The Bill Is Still a WIP. (Bloomberg)

• Markets Wrap: Stocks slips after successive records. (Bloomberg).

• Five Things to Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)

• Musk calls Big, Beautiful Bill DEBT SLAVERY. (CNBC)

• Odd Lots: Jim Chanos on markets and AI. (Podcast)

• The Big Take: Electronic warfare crashes Global Shipping navigation systems. (Podcast)

Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.

Economic & Geopolitical:

• Federal Reserve Speakers of note today

  • None of note.

• Economic Releases:

  • May Construction Spending is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to -0.20% from -0.40%.

  • June ISM Manufacturing Index is due out at the same time and expected to improve.

  • Weekly API Petroleum Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

• President Trump's Daily Schedule.

  • President Trump heads to Alligator Alcatraz in Ochopee, FL for a visit 10:00 a.m. EDT to 12:00 p.m. EDT.

M&A Activity: None of note.

Moving Average Table: Move from 97% to 100% for Equities. Bonds continue to improve.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:

  • Guggenheim BioFrontier

• Shareholder Meetings: None of note.

• Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: None of note.

• Fireside Chat: None of note.

• FDA Presentation: None of note.

• R&D Day: None of note.

• Meetings:

  • Multinational Association of Supportive Care in Cancer (MASCC) Meeting

  • Prostate Education Express National Tour

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.

Upgrades: H HAS OSK OVV SOLV of note.

Downgrades: INMB (3) CTRA TXT of note.