QPI Morning Note For 06/18/25: Stocks Flat Into FOMC Announcement and Presser As Well As Decision From Trump on Iran.

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

• The S&P 500 finished Tuesday lower by -0.84% at 5982.72 from Monday higher by 0.90% at 6033.11.

• Futures are higher this morning by +13.50 (+0.22%) at 6052 around 6:15 a.m. EDT.

• The cash range is now 200 points on the S&P 500 cash for the year, 5900 to 6100. Year to date the S&P 500 is up by 1.72% from 2.52% on Friday's close.

Executive Summary:

• Last week, markets received weak inflation data. This week, the FOMC meets and the $64,000 question is will they take that data and begin to cut rates? Markets are betting on no cuts but the language could change towards cutting down the road and that could surprise markets. Several stories out to this effect now. Watch for a story from WSJ's Nick Timiraos confirming this thought.

Quote of the Day:

• "If the U.S. won’t help one of its strongest and most loyal allies finish the job of eliminating Iran’s nuclear threat in uncontested air space, the message to China will be that there is no chance the U.S. will defend Taiwan. Everyone will see it—from the Kremlin’s commissars to the Communist bosses in Beidaihe".

"But if Mr. Trump helps Israel enforce his own red lines against Iran’s nuclear program, he can send a message that American deterrence means something again. The Afghan fiasco, and the other failures of the Biden years, will recede that much further into history’s rear-view mirror". WSJ Editorial Board.

Breaking News:

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications fell -3%.

Key Events of Note Today:

• May Housing Starts out at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Weekly Crude Oil and Natural Gas due out as well at 10:30 a.m.EDT and 12:00 p.m. EDT.

• 4-Week Bill Auction at 11:30 a.m. EDT.

• Fed Speak speakers in blackout until after today's meeting. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks at 2:30 p.m. EDT.

• President Trump has a quiet day with two events of note.

• Market closed tomorrow for June Teenth Holiday. Reopen Friday.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

• Beats: None of note.

• Misses: LZB -0.01 of note.

• Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises:

• IPOs For The Week: CAI, SLDE of note.

• New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.

• IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.

• Secondaries Filed or Priced:

  • BMEA announces proposed public offering of securities.

  • CLGN: FORM F-1 - 1,272,002 Ordinary Shares.

  • MMA - Pricing of $5.0 Million Underwritten Offering.

  • MMYT - Upsize and Pricing of Primary Offering of Ordinary Shares.

• Notes Priced:

  • NOG closes upsized reopening of its 3.625% convertible unsecured senior notes due 2029.

  • DLR - Pricing of €850 million of Guaranteed Notes due 2034.

  • KRG - Pricing of $300 Million Senior Notes Offering.

• Notes Files: None of note.

• Convertibles Filed: None of note.

• Direct Offering: None of note.

• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.

• Private Placements:

  • UA PRICES PRIVATE OFFERING OF $400 MILLION IN SENIOR NOTES DUE 2030.

• Selling Shareholders of note:

  • ARAI files for 8,125,779 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.

• Mixed Shelf Offerings:

  • BTDR files $300 million convertible notes private offering.

  • WVVI: FORM S-3 - $20,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.

News After The Close:

• Plains All America (PAA) executes definitive agreements for $3.75 billion sale of NGL business to Keyera (KEYUF).

  • Talos Energy (TALO) announced its enhanced corporate strategy designed to position the Company as a leading pure-play offshore exploration and production company.

  • Corporacion America Airports (CAAP) reports a 15.9% year-on-year increase in passenger traffic in May 2025.

  • Amazon (AMZN) and Walt Disney (DIS) Advertising announce collaboration.

  • Hasbro (HAS) 3% global workforce reduction.

  • President Trump extends TikTok deadline another 90 days.

  • FLR awarded a $560 million modification to previously awarded US Navy contract.

  • RTX awarded a $299.7 million modification to previously awarded US Navy contract.

  • LHX awarded a $487 million US Army fee for the modernization of enterprise terminals, depot and engineering services support.

  • PBH voluntarily recalls five lots of Little Remedies Honey Cough Syrup due to the presence of Bacillus cereus and loss of shelf-stability.

  • President Trump considers options on Iran.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

• PEGA shareholders approve 2:1 stock split, trading will begin on a split-adjusted basis on June 23, next Monday.

• PTMN announces corporate rebranding as “BCP Investment Corporation” and trade under new ticker “BCIC".

• CRDF Appoints Dr. Roger Sidhu as Chief Medical Officer and Announces Timing for the Next Update from the CRDF-004 Trial in First-Line RAS-mutated mCRC.

• LOGI approves the nomination of Guy Gecht as the Company’s new chairperson.

Buybacks:

• NOG executes $35 million share repurchase and entered into capped call transactions.

Dividends Announcements or News

• Stocks Ex Div Today of note: CRM TTE LRCX VST VICI TEF HPE LUV BBY NDSN G SNV UWMC FSK TR ASO MPW CURB VSH CSGS KLIC QCRH.

• Stocks Ex Div Friday of note: None of note.

• MITT increases quarterly dividend 5% to $0.21 per share.

Stocks Moving Up & Down After The Close:

• Gap Up: PAA +2.9%, CAAP +2.7%, PAGP +2.3%, TALO +2.3%, HAS +2.3% of note.

• Gap Down: BMEA -26.9%, CRDF -16.8%, FF -8.1%, BTDR -7.1%, SMA -4.1% of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:40 a.m. EDT)

• Futures S&P 500 +3, NASDAQ 100 +23, Dow Jones -11. Europe is lower ex the FTSE while Asia is lower ex Japan. Bonds are at 4.375% from 4.42% on the 10-Year on Tuesday. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower as well. Gold is lower while Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $104,475 from $105.924 lower by $-554 (-0.53%).

Sector Action:

• Daily Positive Sectors: Energy was the only positive sector.

• Daily Negative Sectors: Healthcare, Consumer Cyclicals, Materials and Financials were notable for lower gains.

• One Month Winners: Healthcare, Energy, Basic Materials, and Communication Services of note.

• Three-Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Communication Services of note.

• Six-Month Winners: Communication Services, Financials, Utilities of note.

• Twelve-Month Winners: Financials, Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials and Utilities and of note.

• Year to Date Winners: Materials, Financials, Utilities, Industrials and Communication Services of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Wednesday After the Close:

• Friday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beats: GMW +0.19, KFY +0.06 of note.

• Misses: None of note.

• Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: None of note.

• Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D Line was weak on Tuesday.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

• Gap Up: ARAI +7%, CAAP +3.7%, PAGP +3.2%, FFAI +2.7% of note.

• Gap Down: BMEA -26.6%, CRDF -8.1%, SMA -4.2%, BTDR -3.4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. No stock sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• Bloomberg Lead Story: Trump Shift in Tone Raises Prospect of US Intervention in Iran. (Bloomberg)

• Markets Wrap: Stock Futures . (Bloomberg).

• US and EU sticking points to a trade deal. (CNBC)

• Meta Platforms (META) tried to poach OpenAI employees with $100 million bonuses. (CNBC)

• Big Take: Trump is driving off investors and threatening the Dollar's reign. (Podcast)

Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.

Economic & Geopolitical:

• Federal Reserve Speakers of note today, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks at 2:30 p.m. EDT after the conclusion of the FOMC meeting.

• Economic Releases:

  • May Housing Starts are due out at 8:30 AM ET and expected to fall to 1,356,000 from 1,361,000.

  • Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

• President Trump's Daily Schedule.

  • President Trump participates in a swearing-in ceremony for the Ambassador to the French Republic and the Principality of Monaco.

  • President Trump has lunch with the Chief of the Army Staff for Pakistan.

M&A Activity: None of note.

Moving Average Table: Moves to 43% from 74% for Equities. Bonds improved.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:

  • BTIG Obesity Health Forum

  • Goldman Sachs Global Copper Week

  • Jefferies Consumer Conference

  • Singular Research Investor Conference

  • Stifel Summer Solstice Conference

  • TD Cowen Hospital Summit

  • Wolfe's Materials of the Future Conference

• Shareholder Meetings: ADSK, BJDX, BZUN, CMCSA, DVAX, INKT, OLED, PVH, RIVN

• Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: BULL, KURA, MYO, PATH

• Fireside Chat: None of note.

• FDA Presentation: None of note.

• R&D Day: None of note.

• Meetings:

  • Congress of the European Association for Cancer Research

  • IEEE Optical Interconnects and Packaging Conference

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.

Upgrades: SMA of note.

Downgrades: SEDG UBS of note.