QPI Morning Note For 06/16/25: Stocks Rebound From Friday Selling. FOMC Meets Tuesday & Wednesday. Markets Closed Thursday. Quad Witch Friday.
Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:
The S&P 500 finished Friday lower by -1.13% at 5976.97. For the week, the S&P 500 was lower by -0.39%.
Futures are higher this morning by +28.75 (+0.48%) at 6060.50 around 6:25 a.m. EDT.
The cash range is now 200 points on the S&P 500 cash for the year, 5900 to 6100. Year to date the S&P 500 is up by 1.62% from 2.78% on Friday's close.
Executive Summary:
Last week, markets received weak inflation data. This week the FOMC meets and the $64,000 question is will they take that data and begin to cut rates? Markets are betting on no cuts but the language could change towards cutting down the road and that could surprise markets.
Breaking News:
Israeli continues to strike Iran.
Key Events of Note Today:
Empire Manufacturing is out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
20-Year Bond Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
Fed Speak speakers in blackout until after next week's meeting.
President Trump is in Canada for the G-7 Meeting.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close:
Beats: None of note.
Misses: None of note.
Flat: None of note.
Capital Raises:
IPOs For The Week: None of note.
New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
Secondaries Filed or Priced:
LXEO announces common stock offering, relates to warrants.
UUUU files prospectus supplement for $300 million common stock offering.
Notes Priced:
IREN Limited (IREN) closes upsized $550 million convertible notes offering.
Notes Files: None of note.
Convertibles Filed: None of note.
Direct Offering: None of note.
Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
Private Placements: None of note.
Selling Shareholders of note:
VTR files for 3,377,314 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
RGNX files for 268,096 share common stock offering by selling shareholder.
RAIL also files for 16,995,550 share common stock offering by selling shareholder.
Mixed Shelf Offerings:
DOW files mixed securities shelf offering.
RAIL files for $200 million mixed securities shelf offering.
News After The Close:
KalVista Pharma (KALV) announces FDA will not meet PDUFA goal date for sebetralstat NDA for hereditary angioedema Due to FDA resource constraints.
Echostar (SATS) up sharply +52% after the close after President Trump urged FCC Chairman Brendan Carr to cut a deal with Echostar.
Regeneron (REGN) ticks slightly lower after losing out on its bid to acquire 23andMe.
Meta Platforms (META) to pay Scale at least $450 million a year for five years for its AI products.
U.S. Steel (X) ticks higher after US Appeals court extends pause in litigation.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
ALEC appoints Neil Berkley as interim CFO, effective June 20.
RPD appoints Marc Brown as Chairman of the Board, succeeding Corey Thomas as Chairman.
Buybacks:
JCI approves a $9 billion share repurchase authorization, adding to the $1.1 billion remaining as of the end of the second fiscal quarter under the share repurchase authorization previously approved in 2021.
Dividends Announcements or News
Stocks Ex Div Today of note: UNH MRK MPO HCA ARES VRT HES GRMN EXR IRM DTE LDOS CRBG CW FNF DOC DTM PR PARA DCI UGI OLED EXP NEU BYD BRKR RRR FFIN.
Stocks Ex Div Tuesday of note: None of note.
Stocks Moving Up & Down Last Week:
Gap Up: SKIL +16.3%, URGN (12.13 +64.59%), INSM (98.94 +34.39%), BHC (5.99 +25.74%), SSL (5.44 +18.15%), RUN (9.93 +16.63%), PLAY (30.1 +26.18%), SEDG (23.33 +28.26%), ORCL (216.49 +24.41%), SAIL (22.59 +18.46%), GPRE (5.53 +32.49%), GTE (6.06 +27.58%), RIG (3.29 +19.2%) of note.
Gap Down: None, SLP (18.74 -31.98%), SRPT (36.19 -15.87%), OXM (39.35 -28.35%), RRGB (4.86 -26.66%), SNBR (7.07 -25.94%), GME (22.24 -24.81%), LOVE (16.68 -15.8%), PRO (15.8 -17.43%), CODI (6.04 -15.88%), TGE (7.58 -36.83%), UNFI (21.47 -22.94%) of note.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:42 a.m. EDT)
Futures S&P 500 +34, NASDAQ 100 +147, Dow Jones +207. Europe is higher while Asia is higher as well. Bonds are at 4.42% from 4.375% on the 10-Year for a second day. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas higher as well. Gold is lower while Silver is higher and Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $106,890 from $104,705 higher by $1440 (+1.37%).
Sector Action:
Daily Positive Sectors: Energy.
Daily Negative Sectors: Financial, Technology, Consumer Cyclicals, Real Estate, and Consumer Defensive were notable for lower gains.
One Month Winners: Healthcare, Energy, Basic Materials, and Communication Services of note.
Three-Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Communication Services of note.
Six-Month Winners: Communication Services, Financials, Utilities of note.
Twelve-Month Winners: Financials, Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials and Utilities and of note.
Year to Date Winners: Materials, Financials, Utilities, Industrials and Communication Services of note.
Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
Monday After the Close: LEN of note.
Tuesday Before The Open: JBL WILY of note.
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
Beats: None of note.
Misses: None of note.
Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
Positive Guidance: None of note.
Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D Line was weak on Friday.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
Gap Up: SATS +48.4%, JSPR +12.7%, PRTA +12.2%, INCY +8.5%, EVEX +7.7%, UUUU +7.5%, FFAI +6.7%, WRD +6.5%, ACHR +5.7%, X +5.2%, NTLA +2.9%, IREN +2.6%, CCL +2.2%, RAIL +2%, AKBA +2% of note.
Gap Down: SRPT -41.8%, KALV -4.2%, UPB -2.3% of note.
Insider Action: No stock sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. No stock sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
Bloomberg Lead Story: Oil Erases Gains As Oil Flows Sparred So Far. (Bloomberg)
Markets Wrap: Stock Futures rise as conflict spillover fears subside. (Bloomberg).
G-7 Meets and Asks "Is Trump With Or Against Us?". (CNBC)
Taiwan blacklists Huaweia and SMIC. (CNBC)
Big Take: Iran's Leaders face a reckoning as Israel strikes intensify. (Podcast)
Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.
Economic & Geopolitical:
Federal Reserve Speakers none of note today as they are in a blackout until this week's meeting is over.
Economic Releases:
June Empire State Manufacturing is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT is expected to improve to -6.6 from -9.20.
President Trump's Daily Schedule.
President Trump participates in Bilateral Meetings today with the Presidents of Mexico and Ukraine with no pre-announced time.
President Trump is in Canada for the G-7 and a separate meeting with the President of Canada.
M&A Activity: None of note.
Moving Average Table: Moves to 43% from 87% for Equities. Bonds improve.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
Sellside Conferences:
Goldman Sachs Global Copper Week
Stephens Investor Conference
Stifel Summer Solstice Conference
Wainwright Neuro Perspectives Conference
TD Cowen Hospital Summit
Shareholder Meetings: CHEK, CNL, NVGS, PAYO, PLBY, WPC
Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: HUM, NEPH, OXY, SGMT
Fireside Chat: None of note.
FDA Presentation: None of note.
R&D Day: None of note.
Meetings:
European Hematology Association (EHA)
Paris Air Show
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.
Upgrades: CELH CSCO HDSN INCY SW URGN of note.
Downgrades: SRPT (3) FRPT of note.