QPI Morning Note For 06/13/25: Stock Futures Are Lower As Israel Attacks Iran and They Counter

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

• The S&P 500 finished Thursday higher by 0.38% at 6045.26 from Wednesday lower by -0.27% at 6022.24.

• Futures are lower this morning by -73.50(-1.20%) at 6029.50 around 6:20 a.m. EDT.

• The cash range is now 100 points on the S&P 500 cash for the year, 6000 to 6100. Year to date the S&P 500 is up by 2.78% from 2.39% on Friday's close.

Executive Summary:

• This was inflation week with PPI out yesterday and like CPI it was weaker than expected. If growth is slowing and inflation is dropping, then will the FOMC act next week?

Breaking News:

• Israel attacked Iran overnight and Iran fired back with 100 drones.

Quote of The Day:

• President Trump urged Iran’s leadership to make a deal “before there is nothing left.” (WSJ)

Key Events of Note Today:

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is out at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

• Fed Speak speakers in blackout until after next week's meeting.

• President Trump only has a National Security Council meeting on his docket today.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

• Beats: RH +0.22, ADBE +0.09 of note.

• Misses: None of note.

• Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises:

• IPOs For The Week: None of note.

• New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.

• IPOs Filed/Priced:

  • AIRO - Pricing of Its Initial Public Offering.

• Secondaries Filed or Priced:

  • ELVN - Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants.

  • OKLO - Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock.

  • SBET: Form S-3ASR -- 58,699,760 Shares of Common Stock 10,400,553 Pre-Funded Warrants to Purchase
    up to 10,400,553 Shares of Common.

  • XTIA: Form S-1 Up to 3,960,396 Shares of Common Stock.

• Notes Priced: None of note.

• Notes Files: None of note.

• Convertibles Filed:

  • NOG announces proposed reopening of $150 million of 3.625% convertible senior notes due 2029.

• Direct Offering: None of note.

• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.

• Private Placements:

  • QNCX - Pricing of Up to $22 Million Private Placement of Securities.

• Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.

• Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.

News After The Close:

• Equifax (EFX) has secured 35 new patents in the first half of 2025.

• Musk's artificial intelligence and social media company xAI has secured $250 million in investments from two dozen VC firms. (NYT)

• Draft Kings (DKNG) will implement a 50-cent transaction fee on all mobile and online bets placed in Illinois through DraftKings Sportsbook, effective September 1.

• The role of Elon Musk's SpaceX in the new Golden Dome missile shield system now in question after last week;s feud with the president. (Reuters)

• Apple (AAPL) edging slightly lower in after-hours trading as company targets spring of 2026 for its delayed upgrade of Siri. (Bloomberg)

• BAESY awarded a $155.9 million US Navy contract.

• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) CEO Lisa Su says it has been a big day for AMD in terms of new products, recently announces MI255 chip, its newest AI chip.

• Kenvue (KVUE) ticking lower on report co is exploring the sale of some of its skin health and beauty brands.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

• XPRO announces appointment of Sergio Maiworm as Chief Financial Officer, effective June 30, 2025; He succeeds Quinn Fanning, who will be leaving the company.

• ONTO appoints Brian Roberts as CFO, effective June 16.

• PPIH CEO David Mansfield departs; Saleh Sagr promoted to CEO

Buybacks:

• FLOC announces $50 million stock repurchase program.

Dividends Announcements or News

• Stocks Ex Div Today of note: KO TMO GILD ADP CB ICE AMT WMB MSI DLR AIG NDAQ VRSK CCI AME XEL TKO TROW DVN GPN PKG DPZ ARCC DKS AMH TXT GLPI.

• Stocks Ex Div Monday of note: None of note.

• WPC increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.90/share from $0.89/share.

Stocks Moving Up & Down After The Close:

• Gap Up: SKIL +16.3%, RH +19.2%, NEXT +6.6%, FLOC +4.5%, EFX +2.1%, of note.

• Gap Down: None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:42 a.m. EDT)

• Futures S&P 500 -61.75, NASDAQ 100 275.00-, Dow Jones -471.00. Europe is lower while Asia is lower as well. Bonds are at 4.375% on the 10-Year for a second day. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas higher as well. Gold is higher while Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $104,705 from $107,080 lower by $-2672 (-2.49%).

Sector Action:

• Daily Positive Sectors: Utilities, Healthcare, Technology, Energy and Materials.

• Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Cyclicals and Communication Services were notable for lower gains.

• One Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals, Financials of note.

• Three-Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Communication Services, Financials and Utilities of note.

• Six-Month Winners: Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Materials of note.

• Twelve-Month Winners: Financials, Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials and Utilities and of note.

• Year to Date Winners: Materials, Financials, Utilities, Industrials and Communication Services of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Friday After the Close: None of note.

• Monday Before The Open: None of note.

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beats: None of note.

• Misses: None of note.

• Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: None of note.

• Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D Line mixed of late.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

• Gap Up: RH +17.9%, USO +8.4%, NOG +4.9%, NEXT +4.3% of note.

• Gap Down: ACHR -13.5%, OKLO -5.7%, APLD -5.2%, DKNG -3.9%, TLX -3.6%, COHR -2.8%, MRNA -2.5%, NET -2.4%, DOCN -2.1%, ADBE -2% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. No stock sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• Bloomberg Lead Story: Trump Urges Iran To Make A Deal Before It's Too Late. (Bloomberg)

• Markets Wrap: Stock Futures fall and Oil and Gold jump. (Bloomberg).

• Big Take: The clash over ICE Raids in LA. (Podcast)

Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.

Economic & Geopolitical:

• Economic Releases:

  • The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Prelims) for June will be due out at 10:00 AM ET, carrying a medium trading impact, with the prior reading recorded at 52.2 and an estimate of 53.

  • Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count is out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

• President Trump's Daily Schedule.

  • President Trump attends a National Security Meeting at 11:00 a.m. EDT.

• Federal Reserve Speakers none of note today as they are in a blackout until next week's meeting is over.

M&A Activity: None of note.

Moving Average Table: Moves to 87% from 94% for Equities. Bonds improve.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:

  • RBC Capital Markets Mining & Materials Conf

  • Wells Fargo MedTech Innovation Conference

• Shareholder Meetings: BBY, CLRB, MRVL, TOST

• Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: ELVN

• Fireside Chat: None of note.

• FDA Presentation:

  • BEAM: Data presentation for BEAM101

  • URGN: PDUFA Decision on UGN102

• R&D Day: None of note.

• Meetings:

  • AAPL's Worldwide Developer Conference (Day 4)

  • European Hematology Association (EHA)

  • Interop Tokyo

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.

Upgrades: SUZ of note.

Downgrades: DAY GTM of note.