QPI Morning Note For 06/11/25: Stock Futures Are Lower Into CPI Due Out Shortly

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

• The S&P 500 finished Tuesday higher by 0.55% at 6038.81 from Monday higher by 0.09% at 6005.88.

• Futures are lower this morning by -9.50 (-0.16%) at 6034.75 around 6:20 a.m. EDT.

• The cash range is now 100 points on the S&P 500 cash for the year, 6000 to 6100. Year to date the S&P 500 is up by 2.67% from 2.11% on Friday's close.

Executive Summary:

• This is inflation week with CPI and PPI due out today and tomorrow. Earnings are quiet. Trump quiet? Unlikely.

Breaking News:

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications rose a whopping 12.5%!!

Quote of The Day:

I've done a bit of smugglin' and I've run my share of grass
I made enough money to buy Miami but I pissed it away so fast
Never meant to last, never meant to last - Jimmy Buffet from A Pirate Looks at 40

Key Events of Note Today:

• CPI and the Treasury Budget are out today along with Weekly Crude Oil Inventories.

• 10-Year Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

• Fed Speak speakers in blackout until after next week's meeting.

• President Trump receives his Intelligence Briefing, lunches with the VP, participates in a Ambassador credentialing and head to the Kennedy center for Les Miserables. A full day.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

• Beats: GME +0.09, SFIX +0.06, GTLB +0.02 of note.

• Misses: PLAY -0.25 of note.

• Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises:

• IPOs For The Week: None of note.

• New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.

• IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.

• Secondaries Filed or Priced:

  • BRO - pricing of $4 billion offering of common stock

• Notes Priced:

  • WEC issues $900 million of its convertible notes

• Notes Files: None of note.

• Convertibles Filed:

  • IREN - proposed convertible notes offering

• Direct Offering: None of note.

• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.

• Private Placements: None of note.

• Selling Shareholders of note:

  • BTSG files for common stock offering by selling shareholders, no amount provided.

  • BY files for 4,282,210 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.

• Mixed Shelf Offerings:

  • AYRO: Form S-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf

News After The Close:

• Krispy Kreme (DNUT) sells remaining stake in Insomnia Cookies Holdings for cash proceeds of $75 mln.

• Steel stocks lower after the close on report that US, Mexico are nearing a deal to cut steel duties and cap imports. So much for higher tariffs here. (Bloomberg)

• General Motors (GM) announces plans to invest about $4 billion over the next two years in its domestic manufacturing plants.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

• JYNT announces that Scott Bowman joins company as CFO, replacing Jake Singleton, effective June 10, 2025.

Buybacks: None of note.

Dividends Announcements or News

• Stocks Ex Div Today of note: HPQ BAH REG SR.

• Stocks Ex Div Thursday of note: TSM BABA PSA BR TLK ADT JXN BDC FRO MCY MDU CIVI INSW SFL

Stocks Moving Up & Down After The Close:

• Gap Up: SKIL +16.3%, GETY +10.7%, PLAY +10.2%, SFIX +8.1%, SSTK +4.8%, of note.

• Gap Down: GTLB -13.9%, AMSC -12.9%, CLF -8%, KRT -7.6%, NUE -5.4%, GME -4.6%, IREN -4.6%, STLD -3.5% of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:50 a.m. EDT)

• Futures S&P 500 -16, NASDAQ 100 -66, Dow Jones -139. Europe is higher while Asia is higher as well. Bonds are at 4.50% from 4.45% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas higher. Gold higher with Silver and Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $109,319 from $109,420 lower by $-503 (-0.47%).

Sector Action:

• Daily Positive Sectors: Communication Services, Energy, Consumer Cyclical, Healthcare, and Materials were notable for their higher gains.

• Daily Negative Sectors: Financials and Industrials are notable for lower gains.

• One Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals, Financials of note.

• Three-Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Communication Services, Financials and Utilities of note.

• Six-Month Winners: Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Materials of note.

• Twelve-Month Winners: Financials, Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials and Utilities and of note.

• Year to Date Winners: Materials, Financials, Utilities, Industrials and Communication Services of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Wednesday After the Close:

• Thursday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beats: UNFI +0.22, SJM +0.07 of note.

• Misses: None of note.

• Still to Report: CNM ASO of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: SFIX of note.

• Negative or Mixed Guidance: GTLB of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D Line was strong again on Tuesday.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

• Gap Up: SFIX +12.9%, XNET +10.1%, GETY +8.3%, PLAY +7.8%, SSTK +6.9%, CLDX +4.6%, VTS +2.8%, CXW +2.7%, DNUT +2.7%, MXCT +2.6%, BTSG +2.1%, MT +2.1% of note.

• Gap Down: CABA -19.6%, AMSC -15%, GTLB -12%, KRT -9.4%, CLF -6.9%, GME -4.7%, IREN -4.5%, BY -3.8%, JYNT -3%, NUE -2.8%, STLD -2.8%, FUFU -2.8%, KEN -2.4%, GGAL -2.3% of note.

Insider Action: SHEN FLWS see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. EOLS ONTF see Insider Buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• Bloomberg Lead Story: US and China Agree On Plan That Needs Trump and XI Sign Off. (Bloomberg)

• Markets Wrap: Stock Futures and Bonds drop into CPI data. (Bloomberg).

• EU expects trade discussions will last beyond July. (Bloomberg)

• Curfew was declared in Downtown Los Angeles after night of vandalism and looting. (NBC)

• Elon Musk walks back his comments last week on Trump and apologizes. (CNBC)

• Barron's is + on SHW.

• Big Take: The clash over ICE Raids in LA. (Podcast)

Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.

Economic & Geopolitical:

• Economic Releases:

  • CPI is due out at 8:30 AM ET, which has a high trading impact, and the prior CPI increase was 0.2% with an estimate of 0.30%.

  • The Treasury Budget, due out at 2:00 PM ET, provides insights into the federal fiscal health and has a medium trading impact. The prior Treasury Budget Figure was $258.4 billion.

  • Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

• President Trump's Daily Schedule.

  • President Trump attends the Intelligence Briefing at 11:00 a.m. EDT.

  • President Trump and Vice President Vance lunch.

  • Press Briefing at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

  • President Trump participates in a Ambassador Credentialing Ceremony at 4:00 p.m. EDT.

  • President Trump and the First Lady attend Les Miserables at the Kennedy Center leaving for it at 6:20 p.m. EDT.

• Federal Reserve Speakers none of note today as they are in a blackout until next week's meeting is over.

M&A Activity: None of note.

Moving Average Table: Remains at 94% for Equities.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:

  • D.A. Davidson Technology + Consumer Conf

  • Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conf

  • Evercore ISI Consumer & Retail Conference

  • Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference

  • Mizuho Technology Conference

  • Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference

  • Oppenheimer Consumer Growth

  • Raymond James Copper Conference

  • Rosenblatt Securities Technology Summit

  • Sidoti & Co. Small Cap Conference

  • Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference

• Shareholder Meetings: AAL, ANF, CAT, CMG, DKS, DVAX, FCX, LULU, NDAQ, NXPI, TGT, ULTA

• Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: BIIB, DV, NAMS, TLX

• Fireside Chat: None of note.

• FDA Presentation: None of note.

• R&D Day: None of note.

• Meetings:

  • AAPL's Worldwide Developer Conference (Day 2)

  • Cisco Live

  • EULAR Annual Congress

  • Sachs European BioPharma Obesity Forum

  • Three Part Advisors East Coast IDEAS Conf

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.

Upgrades: FSLR SJM of note.

Downgrades: ETSY RUN of note.