QPI Morning Note For 05/30/25: Stock Futures Modestly Lower, PCE Core Out At 8:30 a.m. EDT
Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:
The S&P 500 finished Thursday higher by 0.40% at 5912.17. Wednesday lower by -0.56% at 5888.55.
Futures are lower this morning by -7.75 (-0.13%) at 5915 around 6:10 a.m. EDT.
The cash range is now 200 points on the S&P 500 cash for the year, 5900 to 6100. Year to date the S&P 500 is up by 0.52% from 0.12% on Wednesday's close.
Executive Summary:
A three-judge panel at the US Court of International Trade ruled Wednesday that President Trump had acted illegally on tariff action putting this issue on a direct course to an appellate court and then the Supreme Court. Yesterday, the appellate court ruled that the tariffs could stay in effect. So we are right back to where we were before the US Court if International Trade ruled on Wednesday.
Key Events of Note Today:
Lots of monthly and weekly economic data. See below.
Also, lots of Fed Speak today.
President Trump has a light schedule today with a presser with Elon Musk and a visit to U.S. Steel (X).
Notable Earnings Out After The Close:
Beats: ULTA +0.89, ESTC +0.10, ZS +0.08, GAP +0.06, PD +0.05, COST +0.04, AMBA +0.03, COO +0.03, NTAP +0.03, MRVL +0.01, PATH +0.01 of note.
Misses: DELL -0.15, AEO -0.04 of note.
Flat: None of note.
Capital Raises:
IPOs For The Week: FGO, HLEO, VNTG
New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
Secondaries Filed or Priced:
FEMY - Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock and Concurrent Private Placement.
TATT - Pricing of Public Offering of Ordinary Shares.
Notes Priced:
ADSK: Form S-3ASR - Senior Debt Securities.
CIVI - Pricing of Upsized Offering of $750 million of New Senior Notes Due 2033.
Notes Files: None of note.
Convertibles Filed: None of note.
Direct Offering: None of note.
Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
Private Placements: None of note.
Selling Shareholders of note:
TATT Secondary Offering by Selling Shareholders.
GPOR files for 3,692,378 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
Mixed Shelf Offerings:
GPOR: FORM S-3ASR - Mixed Shelf Offering.
RGTI: FORM S-3ASR - Mixed Shelf Offering.
HAFN files mixed securities shelf offering.
News After The Close:
Gap (GAP) falls despite earnings beat as says that tarifs could cost them $100 to $150 million.
American Eagle (AEO) misses on an inventory write down of $75 million.
Dell Inc (DELL) raises guidance on AI demand.
10K or Qs Filings/Delays – (Filed), (Delayed) none of note.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
SWKS announced that Mark Dentinger will not be joining Skyworks as Chief Financial Officer (CFO) due to an unforeseen medical condition.
ZS appoints Kevin Rubin as Chief Financial Officer.
XRAY appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective May 30, 2025.
CL announced several executive leadership appointments that will take effect June 16, 2025.
HD names Angie Brown as EVP and chief information officer (CIO).
Buybacks:
RBB authorized a stock repurchase plan of up to $18 million of the outstanding common stock through June 30, 2026.
RUSHA increases stock repurchase program by $50 million.
Dividends Announcements or News:
Stocks Ex Div Today: TMUS UNP IBKR NTES INFY NCG CSX GLW EBAY KHC LPLA DD DOV CBOE EL FTV AU BIP HUBB DOW TSN WY FDS BAX ULS CR AGNC EVR HII WMS CFR ADC WTS RLI of note.
Stocks Ex Div Monday of note: None of note.
Stocks Moving Up & Down Yesterday:
Gap Up: PATH +9.3%, ULTA +8.1%, STRZ +7.2%, CCM +5.2%, ZS +4.5%, RBB +3.5%, BEAM +3.4%,AMBA +2.7%, MCHP +2% of note.
Gap Down: GAP -14.6%, ESTC -12%, NMAX -9.5%, AEO -7.6%, NTAP -5%, SMR -2.5%, TWO -2.1% of note.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:35 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 -6, NASDAQ -15, Dow Jones -25. Europe is higher while Asia is mixed. Bonds are at 4.426% from 4.50% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas higher. Gold and Silver are lower with Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $105,650 from $108,796 lower by $-196 (-0.18%).
Sector Action:
Daily Positive Sectors: Healthcare, Real Estate, Utilities and Financials were higher of note.
Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services of note.
One Month Winners: Industrials, Financials, Technology, Materials and Utilities of note.
Three-Month Winners: Consumer Defensive and Utilities of note.
Six-Month Winners: Financials, Consumer Defensive, Communication Services and Utilities of note.
Twelve-Month Winners: Financials, Communication Services, Utilities, Technology, Consumer Defensive and Consumer Cyclical of note.
Year to Date Winners: Utilities, Materials, Consumer Defensive and Financials of note.
Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
Friday After the Close: None of note.
Monday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
Flat: None of note
Beats: SCVL +0.04 of note.
Misses: None of note.
Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
Positive Guidance: PATH of note.
Negative or Mixed Guidance: AEO, GAP of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D Line saw improvement on Thursday.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
Gap Up: SMMT +13.7%, SCVL +11.2%, PATH +10.3%, ULTA +7.9%, RUSHA +5%, TIGR +4.4%, RBB +3.5%, STRZ +3.5%, SBCF +3.2%, AMBA +3.1%, ZS +3.1%, HBM +2.8%, CCM +2.2% of note.
Gap Down: GAP -16.5%, ESTC -10.5%, NMAX -7.8%, AEO -7.2%, RGTI -6.9%, PD -6.2%, NTAP -5.5%, SNY -4.9%, COO -3.8%, TATT -3.6%, SMR -3.4%, MRVL -3.4% of note.
Insider Action: None of note see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. BLDR sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
Bloomberg Lead Story: Trump Tariff Options Slower, More Complex if Court Fight Fails. (Bloomberg)
Markets Wrap: Stock Futures drop at tariff concerns weigh on sentiment. (Bloomberg).
Trump and XI need to meet says Bessent. (CNBC)
Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.
Economic & Geopolitical:
Economic Releases:
April Personal Income are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to 0.3% from 0.5%.
April PCE Core is due out at the same time and expected to rise to 0.10% from 0.0%.
May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to stay at 50.80%.
Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count is due out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
President Trump's Daily Schedule.
President Trump and Elon Musk hold a press conference at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
President Trump heads to U.S. Steel at 4:50 p.m. EDT and delivers remarks at 5:00 p.m. EDT.
Federal Reserve Speakers of note today.
Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks at 12:30 p.m. EDT.
Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly speaks at 4:45 p.m. EDT.
Federal Reserve Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks at 7:30 p.m. EDT.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaks at 8:00 p.m. EDT.
M&A Activity and News: None of note.
Moving Average Table: Moves from 90% to 80% on Equity Indexes and Bonds saw some improvement.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
Sellside Conferences:
BAC Emerging Markets Conference
Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference
Shareholder Meetings: ECO, LI, LOW, MERC, MRK, PEE, RIG, SAND
Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: ACTU, CYTK, FFAI, IOVA, NVCR
Fireside Chat: None of note.
FDA Presentation: None of note.
R&D Day: None of note.
Meetings:
American Society of Clinical Oncology Annual Meeting
RISE25
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.
Upgrades: HCI of note.
Downgrades: ABNB of note.