QPI Morning Note For 05/13/25: Futures Lower Into CPI at 8:30 a.m. EDT, Trump In The Middle East
Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:
The S&P 500 finished Monday higher by 3.26% at 5844.19. Friday lower by -0.07% at 5659.91. Futures are lower this morning by -19 (-0.32%) at 5846 around 6:10 a.m. EDT. The cash range is now 300 points on the S&P 500 cash for the year, 5800 to 6100. Year to date the S&P 500 is down -0.64% from -3.70% Wednesday's close.
Executive Summary:
All the noise is for nothing as both countries flinched and now all the pain is for what? The U.S. and China have paused tariffs for the next 90 days post the meetings in Switzerland.
Breaking News: NFIB Small Business fell to 95.8 from 97.4.
Key Events of Note Today:
CPI out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
3 and 6 Month Bill Auction at 11:30 a.m. EDT.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close:
Beats: ARWR +3.19, BCO +0.45, VTLE +0.18, MODG +0.17, GCT +0.16, RPD +0.15, MLTX +0.12 of note (> 0.10)
Misses: CNNE (1.41), GETY (0.20), HTZ (0.14), MLNK (0.02), MRVI (0.01) of note.
Flat: INDI +0.00, RPAY +0.00 of note.
Capital Raises:
IPOs For The Week: ANTA, EGG, ETOR, FMFC, LHAI, MSGY, OFAL
New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
Secondaries Filed or Priced:
AEE announces public offering of $200 million of common stock with a forward component.
SGI prices 15,376,743 common share offering at $62.
XTNT: Form S-1.. 73,114,592 Shares of Common Stock
Notes Priced:
CTVA Pricing of Senior Notes Offering
STX Pricing of $400 Million of Senior Unsecured Note
Notes Files: None of note.
Convertibles Filed: None of note.
Direct Offering: None of note.
Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
Private Placements: None of note.
Selling Shareholders of note:
BOX files for 9,876,494 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
Mixed Shelf Offerings:
CTRI files for $500 million mixed securities shelf offering.
TNGX files for $400 million mixed securities shelf offering
News After The Close:
Copa Holdings (CPA) saw capacity increase by 5.2%, while system-wide passenger traffic increased by 5.5% compared to 2024.
Coinbase (COIN) will replace Discover Financial Services (DFS) in the S&P 500 effective prior to the opening of trading on Monday, May 19.
AMC announces “50% Off Wednesdays” pricing initiative.
RTX awarded a $2.13 billion modification to a previously awarded US Missile Defense Agency contract.
UNH suspends guidance on CEO transition. (see below)
10K or Qs Filings/Delays – (Filed), CASH AVD (Delayed) of note.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
SNDX appoints Nicholas Botwood as Head of Research and Development and Chief Medical Officer.
MLNK to elevate Larry Katz to CEO in October 1, 2025.
EAT promotes Aaron White to COO.
UNH President Andrew Witty made a decision to step down as CEO for personal reasons and will be replaced by Stephen Hemsley.
Buybacks:
RPAY authorizes increase to share repurchase program, up to $75 million from $50 million.
AX announces $100 million increase to stock repurchase program.
Dividends Announcements or News:
Stocks Ex Div Today: AAPL KKR PAYX GWW EXC F BRO ROL PPG CWT FIBK WMK OGN CCEC SJW
Stocks Ex Div Wednesday of note: None of note.
HNI increases quarterly dividend to $0.34 from $0.33.
Stocks Moving Up & Down After The Close:
Gap Up: LSEA +58.4%, GCT +16%, AIRJ +10%, MVST +8.8% COIN +8.8%, SATL +4.8%, BEAM +3.5% of note.
Gap Down: DDD -26.1%, EXOD -16.6%, RGTI -13.2%, INDY -12.1%, XENE -8%, GETY -7.1%, AQST -7%, POWI -4.7%, HTZ -3.6%, CNNE -2.9% of note.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 6:45 a.m. EDT)
Futures S&P 500 -10, NASDAQ -17, Dow Jones -186, Russell 2000 . Europe is higher and Asia is higherex China. Bonds are at 4.451% unchanged from yesterday on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $103,610 from $104,392 higher by $1829 (+1.80%).
Sector Action:
Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Industrials, Communication Services and Healthcare of note.
Daily Negative Sectors: Utilities and Consumer Defensive of note.
One Month Winners: Industrials, Financials, Technology, Materials and Utilities of note.
Three Month Winners: Consumer Defensive and Utilities of note.
Six Month Winners: Financials, Consumer Defensive, Communication Services and Utilities of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Financials, Communication Services, Utilities, Technology, Consumer Defensive and Consumer Cyclical of note.
Year to Date Winners: Utilities, Materials, Consumer Defensive and Financials of note.
Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
Tuesday After the Close:
Wednesday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
Flat: None of note
Beats: JD +1.38, CYBR +0.19, LEGN +0.14, TME +0.03, ONON +0.01 of note. (>than 0.10)
Misses: SE -0.16, IGT -0.07, IMOS -0.04 of note.
Still to Report: KOP of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
Positive Guidance: UAA of note.
Negative or Mixed Guidance: IGT of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D Line continues to move higher.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
Gap Up: LSEA +59.1%, LSEA +59.1%, RLGT +13.9%, GCT +11.7%, ARWR +11%, MVST +10.5%, COIN +9.3%, AIRJ +6.8%, ONON +5.2%, ONTF +4.6%, ACHC +4.5%, GLPG +4.4%, SATL +3.9%, GRAL +3.7%, IAS +3.7%, VG +2.9%, CNR +2.3%, MATW +2.3%, MLNK +2.2%, IMOS +2.1%, TME +2% of note.
Gap Down: DDD -20.8%, RGTI -11.1%, XENE -10.3%, EXOD -10.2%, INDI -9.8%, ODD -8.5%, CNNE -7.9%, HTZ -7.8%, AQST -7.4%, RPD -7.1%, CTRI -5.9%, VIV -5.7%, VFS -4.8%, HMC -4.8%, VTLE -4.7%, HPK -4.1%, HNI -3%, BCO -3%, SNDX -2.5%, POWI -2.4%, SARO -2.1%, GETY -2% of note.
Insider Action: None of note see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None of note see Insider Buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
Bloomberg Lead Story: US Prepares to Ease Saudi Arabia's Access to AI Chips. (Bloomberg)
Citadel's Griffin says cash was king during the tariff tantrum. (Bloomberg)
Markets Wrap: US Futures Drop before CPI. (Bloomberg)
Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.
Economic & Geopolitical:
Economic Releases:
April CPI is out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 0.30% from 0.10%.
Weekly API Petroleum Report is due out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
Federal Reserve Speakers of note today.
Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler to speak at 10:25 a.m. EDT.
President Trump's Daily Schedule.
President Trump is in Saudi Arabia today and we are not detailing his movements as there are too many.
M&A Activity and News:
Landsea Holdings (LSEA) to be acquired by Apollo portfolio company for $11.30/sh in cash, to become a private company.
Moving Average Table: Move from 80% to 94% on Equity Indexes. Fixed Income (bonds) is still a struggle.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
Sellside Conferences:
BAC Health Care Conference
BAC Transportation, Airlines and Industrials Conference
Goldman Sachs Global Staples Forum
JPM Technology Media and Communications Conference
Needham Technology & Media Conference
Wainwright Royalty Company Conference
Wells Fargo Financial Services Conference
UBS Energy Transition and Decarbonization Conference
Wolfe Research Commercial Real Estate Services Conference
Shareholder Meetings: CATY, IP, NSA
Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: AMZN, ATH, TYL
Fireside Chat: None of note.
R&D Day: None of note.
FDA Presentation: ARTV: Data Presentation for AlloNK® (AB-101) +
rituximab (5/13-5/17)Industry Meetings or Events: None of note.
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.
Upgrades: CUBE PBF RYAN VLO of note.
Downgrades: ENPH KIND RPD of note.