QPI Morning Note For 05/09/25: Looks Like 10% Tariffs Are Here To Stay, Stocks Seem Okay With This Right Now

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

• The S&P 500 finished Thursday higher by 0.58% at 5663.94. Wednesday higher by 0.43% at 5631.28. Futures are higher this morning by 60.50 (+1.07%) at 5712.50 around 6:20 a.m. EDT. The range is now 500 points on the S&P 500 cash for the year, 5600 to 6100. Year to date the S&P 500 is down -3.70% from -4.26% Wednesday's close.

Executive Summary:

• The U.K. Trade Deal is an oxymoron. The U.S. actually runs a trade surplus with the U.K. yet we are keeping a 10% tariff on them. Looks like tariffs are here to stay. In addition, the president wants to tax those making above $2.5 million a year and extra 2% taking their tax year to 39.7% from 37%. So much for Republicans being for lower taxes.

Breaking News: Trump comments on China deal talks, see Rags & Mags.

Chart of the Day: Are Shorts betting on a bankruptcy here?

Key Events of Note Today:

• Quiet Friday apart from Tape Bombs.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

• Beats: AGO +0.51, LPLA +0.47, ICUI +0.44, TMDX +0.44, ZYME +0.38, GDOT +0.35, MCK +0.29, ATGE +0.27, AMN +0.24, PODD +0.23, PBA +0.22, POST +0.21, TXG +0.19, CLNE +0.15, LASR +0.15, SLF +0.14, LNT +0.14, NTRA +0.14, SOLV +0.13, BILL +0.13, VREX +0.13, AKAM +0.13, FNKO +0.10, MITK +0.10, WOLF +0.10, RUM +0.09, TTD +0.08, DBX +0.08, TKO +0.08, ALRM +0.07, FNV +0.07, HUBS +0.07, OS +0.07, SPT +0.07, COLL +0.06, ST +0.06, EXPE +0.05, PCRX +0.05, OUT +0.05, INOD +0.05, TMCI +0.05, ONTO +0.04, RNG +0.04, SYNA +0.04, DIOD +0.04, FROG +0.04, PARA +0.04, YELP +0.04, ILMN +0.03, WPM +0.03, DH +0.03, ARLO +0.03, NWSA +0.03, SOUN +0.03, ZIP +0.03, RCKT +0.03, AHR +0.02, CARG +0.02, FOXF +0.02, RXT +0.02, AFRM +0.02, AAOI +0.02, COIN +0.01, FRT +0.01, HUBG +0.01, MP +0.01, OLO +0.01, TREX +0.01, VCTR +0.01, DKNG +0.01, MCHP +0.01, PUBM +0.01, MNST +0.01 of note (> 0.10)

• Misses: XIFR (1.48), MARA (1.03), CLSK (0.38), BHF (0.38), FLWS (0.37), LYFT (0.18), PRTA (0.15), IOVA (0.12), ZD (0.11), WEST (0.11), CRNX (0.10), TOST (0.09), ASTH (0.07), TXRH (0.06), GMED (0.06), MTUS (0.05), BBDC (0.03), AVPT (0.03), EVH (0.03), PINS (0.03), EVCM (0.02), PGNY (0.02), JANX (0.01), DV (0.01), RKLB (0.01), SG (0.01) of note.

• Flat: NET +0.00, FIGS +0.00, IOSP +0.00, RKT +0.00, XPOF +0.00 of note.

Capital Raises:

• IPOs For The Week: None of note.

• New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.

• IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.

• Secondaries Filed or Priced:

  • IDA has commenced an underwritten public offering of $450 mln of shares of its common stock.

  • OGS plans to make a public offering of 2,500,000 shares of its common stock.

• Notes Priced: None of note.

• Notes Files: None of note.

• Convertibles Filed:

  • HIMS files $870 Million Convertible Note.

• Direct Offering: None of note.

• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.

• Private Placements: None of note.

• Selling Shareholders of note:

  • AUTL files for 54,584,250 ADS offering by selling shareholder

• Mixed Shelf Offerings:

  • COIN files mixed securities shelf offering.

  • TYRA files for $500 million mixed securities shelf offering.

  • VTRS files mixed securities shelf offering.

  • TERN files for $300 million mixed securities shelf offering.

  • CTVA files mixed securities shelf offering.

  • CDTX files for $500 million mixed securities shelf offering.

News After The Close:

• MGM reaches a new employment agreement with CEO & President Bill Hornbuckle through December 31, 2028/

• Commerice Secretary Howard Lutnick who was on CNBC said the U.S. will roll out "dozens" of trade deals over the month; says will be putting Biden-era chip export restrictions "in the trash bin" next week, but wants semi cos to invest in America; says he supports raising taxes on the rich, those above $2.5 million.

• Cohen & Steers (CNS) reports preliminary assets under management of $87.5 billion as of April 30, 2025, a decrease of $70 million from assets under management of $87.6 billion at March 31, 2025.

• President Trump promised "earth-shattering" announcement Monday will be a "most favored nation" plan to cut Medicare drug prices.

• President Trump say the U.S. calls for, ideally, a 30-day unconditional ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. If the ceasefire is not respected, then the U.S. and its partners will impose further sanctions on Russia. (Truth Social Post).

• Stellantis (STLA) on U.K. trade deal noted-Under this deal, it will now be cheaper to import a UK vehicle with very little U.S. content than a USMCA compliant vehicle from Mexico or Canada that is half American parts. This hurts American automakers, suppliers, and auto workers. We hope this preferential access for UK vehicles over North American ones does not set a precedent for future negotiations with Asian and European competitors.

• 10K or Qs Filings/Delays – (Filed), TH (Delayed) None of note.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

• QUBT promotes Milan Begliarbekov to COO.

• FLWS announces that effective as of May 07, 2025, Adolfo Villagomez has been appointed and named Chief Executive Officer of 1-800-Flowers.com, Inc. beginning May 12, 2025.

• TTMI announces the retirement of its founder, former CEO and long-serving board member, Kent Alder.

• CRMT announces that Jonathan Collins will assume the role of CFO effective May 12.

• NCLH announces the appointment of Linda P. Jojo to its Board of Directors as an independent director, effective May 7, 2025.

Buybacks:

• PODD authorized $125 million buyback.

• DIOD has authorized the repurchase of up to an aggregate of $100 million of its outstanding common stock.

• HSTM may repurchase up to $25 million of outstanding shares of common stock.

• WY authorizes a $1 billion share repurchase program, replacing the recently completed $1 billion share repurchase program.

Dividends Announcements or News:

• Stocks Ex Div Today: None of note.

• Stocks Ex Div Thursday of note: None of note.

• INGM Increases quarterly dividend by 2.7% to $0.076 per share.

• NHC increases quarterly dividend 4.9% to $0.64/share from $0.61/share.

• SLF dividend to C$0.88/share from C$0.84/share.

Stocks Moving Up & Down After The Close:

• Gap Up: LASR +16.1%, PINS +15.6%, GDOT +14.9%, TMDX +13.5%, AMN +13.2%, ST +12.4%, MITK +11.8%, TTD +11.8%, PSIX +11.7%, NGVC +9.8%, PODD +9.6% of note.

• Gap Down: IOVA -42%, WOLF -23.4%, RCEL -20.4%, ORGO -18.5%, GMED -17.2%, DCGO -16.7%, FIGS -12.2%, PCRX -11.7%, REAL -11.7%, EXFY -10.5%, KODK -10.3%, INOD -10.2%, HROW -9.7%, XPOF -9.5%, AAOI -9.4%, GRND -9.4%, ONTO -9.2%, SG -9%, AFRM -8.9%, CVRX -8.7%, FLWS -8.3% of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:15 a.m. EDT)

Futures S&P 500 +9, NASDAQ +, Dow Jones +21, Russell 2000 -2.61. Europe is higher and Asia is higher ex China. Bonds are at 4.382% from 4.31% yesterday on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas higher as well for a fourth day in a row. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $102,959 from $99,631 higher by $+1732 (+1.76%).

Sector Action:

• Daily Positive Sectors: Technology, Healthcare, Consumer Cyclical and Financials of note.

• Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services and Materials of note.

• One Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Defensive, Industrials and Utilities of note.

• Three Month Winners: Consumer Defensive and Utilities of note.

• Six Month Winners: Financials, Consumer Defensive, Communication Services and Utilities of note.

• Twelve Month Winners: Financials, Communication Services, Utilities, Technology, Consumer Defensive, Real Estate and Consumer Cyclical of note.

• Year to Date Winners: Consumer Defensive, Utilities, Materials and Financials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Friday After the Close:

• Monday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Flat: None of note

• Beats: ENB +0.34, ANIP +0.32, EMBC +0.17, ROAD +0.15 of note. (>than 0.10)

• Misses: AMR (1.54), CLMT (1.36), AMCX (0.26), WULF (0.09), PAA (0.05), STWD (0.03), TXNM (0.01), SLVM (0.01) of note.

• Still to Report: KOP of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: None of note.

• Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D crossed above its 30-day exponential moving average last week.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

• Gap Up: None of note.

• Gap Down: None of note.

Insider Action: APLE KFRC ONEW of note see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None of note see Insider Buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• Bloomberg: Trump Team Seeks Tariff Cuts and Rare Earth Relief From China. (Bloomberg)

• President Trump out on China - "80% Tariff on China seems right! Up to Scott B".

• Bank of America's Harnett sees rally fading. (Bloomberg)

• Bloomberg Odd Lots: How China might really handle a trade war with the US. (Podcast)

Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.

Economic & Geopolitical:

• Economic Releases:

  • Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

• Federal Reserve Speakers of note today.

  • None of note.

• President Trump's Daily Schedule.

  • 4 p.m. EDT The President signs Executive Orders

M&A Activity and News: None of note.

Moving Average Table: Move from 60% to 80% on Equity Indexes. Fixed Income (bonds) is struggling.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:

  • Barclays Americas Select Franchise Conference

  • Bloom Burton & Co. Healthcare Investor Conference

  • BMO Capital Markets GRAMC

  • Davidson Financial Institutions Conference

  • Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference

  • Wells Fargo Real Estate Securities Conference

• Shareholder Meetings: None of note.

• Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: None of note.

• Fireside Chat: None of note.

• R&D Day: None of note.

• FDA Presentation: None of note.

• Industry Meetings or Events:

  • Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing Conference

  • Acute Kidney Injury

  • Digestive Disease Week

  • EAS Congress

  • FICO World

  • IUCX Annual Conference

  • Milken Institute Global Conference

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.

Upgrades: CARR EYE LYFT PTCT WGS of note.

Downgrades: CVRX EXPE IP WOLF (2) of note.