QPI Morning Note For 05/02/25: Stocks Continue To Run Like a Derby Horse

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

• The S&P 500 finished Thursday higher by 0.63% at 5604.14. Wednesday higher by 0.15% at 5569.06. Tuesday higher by 0.58% at 5560.83. Futures are higher this morning by +74 (+1.33%) at 5661 around 6:25 a.m. EDT. The range is now 500 points on the S&P 500 cash for the year, 5600 to 6100. Year to date the S&P 500 is down -4.72% from -5.31% Wednesday's close.

Executive Summary:

• Stocks are beginning to trade with less volatility as the VIX is at 24.60 from 23.25 yesterday morning. The S&P 500 is now higher for eight days in a row. Time for the market to catch its breath.

Key Events of Note Today:

• Nonfarm Payrolls and Factory Orders are out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and 10:00 a.m. EDT.

• Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

• Beats: TREE +0.79, BIO +0.73, AMGN +0.63, RHP +0.40, RGA +0.35, PCTY +0.31, MTD +0.31, RRR +0.28, BMRN +0.27, OLED +0.26, AMZN +0.22, BJRI +0.21, DUOL +0.21, ICFI +0.21, SPXC +0.21, ALSN +0.18, TWLO +0.18, MSI +0.17, MTZ +0.17, AIG +0.17, COHU +0.15, CWST +0.15, BZH +0.15, SM +0.15, FIVN +0.14, LUMN +0.14, GDDY +0.13, SKWD +0.13, SYK +0.13, EIG +0.12, MHK +0.11, OLN +0.11, RDDT +0.11, AJG +0.10, TVTX +0.10, X +0.10, ADPT +0.09, COLM +0.09, PRDO +0.09, ALHC +0.08, EOG +0.07, CNI +0.07, DLB +0.07, ROKU +0.07, WK +0.07, TEAM +0.07, ETNB +0.06, LYV +0.06, PCOR +0.05, ED +0.05, ATR +0.04, CPT +0.04, CUZ +0.04, EXPO +0.04, NVST +0.04, JNPR +0.04, MPWR +0.03, SXI +0.03, PEB +0.03, VIAV +0.03, AAPL +0.03, ATEN +0.02, CUBE +0.02, OHI +0.02, SNCY +0.02, GDYN +0.02, TRUP +0.02, SVV +0.02, DRH +0.02, AMH +0.01, FND +0.01, HOLX +0.01, PRO +0.01, KWR +0.01, ABNB +0.01, ELME +0.01 of note.

• Misses: MSTR (16.38), SPR (3.12), XYZ (0.41), ATEC (0.23), ZETA (0.21), EXAS (0.20), BBAI (0.19), AES (0.08), ARDX (0.06), ULCC (0.04), WSC (0.03), LMAT (0.02), DXCM (0.01), ES (0.01), HTGC (0.01), IR (0.01), CART (0.01), IRTC (0.01), SEM (0.01), HL (0.01) of note.

• Flat: AEE +0.00, LOCO +0.00, HR +0.00, HUN +0.00, NVEE +0.00, RYAN +0.00 of note.

Capital Raises:

• IPOs For The Week: ALEH, EGG, OMSE, YB

• New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.

• IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.

• Secondaries Filed or Priced:

  • KDP announces that a subsidiary of JAB Holding Company s.a.r.l. will sell an aggregate of 75,000,000 shares of KDP common stock through a proposed registered public offering.

• Notes Priced: None of note.

• Notes Files:

  • EZPW announces the retirement of its $103.4 mln aggregate principal amount outstanding of 2.375% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2025

• Convertibles Filed: None of note.

• Direct Offering: None of note.

• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.

• Private Placements: None of note.

• Selling Shareholders of note:

  • LOAR files for 70,563,595 share common stock offering by selling shareholders

• Mixed Shelf Offerings:

  • GLPI files mixed securities shelf offering

  • BIIB files mixed securities shelf offering

News After The Close:

• Amazon (AMZN) beats and guides in line. AWS was a bit weaker than expected causing shares to drop in price.

• Six Flags (FUN) will close Six Flags America and Hurricane Harbor in Bowie, Maryland, after the 2025 operating season and redevelop it.

• Apple (AAPL) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; iPhones top expectations as users rush to buy pre-tariff. Sees $900 mln in tariff costs in Q3.

• Airbnb (ABNB) some relative softness in U.S. due to broader economic uncertainty.

• BAESY awarded a $172.3 mln modification to previously awarded US Navy contract.

• 10K or Qs Filings/Delays – (Filed), (Delayed) None of note.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

• CBOE appoints Craig Donohue as CEO, effective May 7.

Buybacks:

• CBL authorizes a stock repurchase program for the Company to buy up to $25 mln of its common stock

• WBS announces increase to common stock repurchase authorization by $700 mln.

• DAL authorized a $1 billion share repurchase program.

• AAPL authorized an additional program to repurchase up to $100 bln of the company's common stock.

• SNCY approved a new $25 million share repurchase authority.

• BZH announces $100 mln buyback

Dividends Announcements or News:

• Stocks Ex Div Today: COST SCCO CARR NSC DHI ETR WES SBS EWBC BKRIY PNFP LW HXL HOPE CDRE AGRO

• Stocks Ex Div Monday of note: None of note.

• RTX increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.68/share from $0.63/share.

• MUSA increases quarterly cash dividend 2% to $$0.50/share from $0.49/share.

• AAPL increases dividend 4%.

• RGP approved quarterly cash dividend of $0.07 per share (previously $0.14 per share) so a cut.

Stocks Moving Up & Down Yesterday:

• Gap Up: DUOL +9.8%, TWLO +8.7%, RDDT +5.3%, CART +3.8%, FND +3.7% of note.

• Gap Down: TEAM -16.8%, TREE -13.6%, EXAS +8.8%, ROKU -5.6%, ABNB -5.5%, AAPL -3.9%, AMZN -2.3% of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:00 a.m. EDT)

Futures S&P 500 +19, NASDAQ +50, Dow Jones +154, Russell 2000 +15. Europe is higher and Asia higher. Bonds are at 4.21% from 4.14% yesterday on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $96,855 from $96,034 higher by $236 at +0.24%.

Sector Action:

• Daily Positive Sectors: Technology, Communication Services and Industrials of note.

• Daily Negative Sectors: Healthcare, Materials and Consumer Defensive of note.

• One Month Winners: Consumer Defensive of note.

• Three Month Winners: Consumer Defensive of note.

• Six Month Winners: Consumer Defensive and Financials of note.

• Twelve Month Winners: Utilities, Financials, Consumer Defensive, Real Estate, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical and Technology of note.

• Year to Date Winners: Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Materials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Friday After the Close: None of note.

• Monday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Flat: WEN +0.00, NVT +0.00 of note

• Beats: PIPR +1.44, FUBO +0.65, SSTK +0.46, CI +0.39, CRTO +0.33, TEX +0.30, FLR +0.23, FLGT +0.22, CBOE +0.14, TROW +0.10, DD +0.08, PWP +0.07, XHR +0.07, BTSG +0.05, PRLB +0.04, ATMU +0.04, TILE +0.04, CVX +0.02, ETN +0.01, WT +0.01, XOM +0.01 of note.

• Misses: WLK (0.96), CNK (0.08), TDS (0.08), MGA (0.07) of note.

• Still to Report: AXL, BEN, IMO, MSGS of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: None of note.

• Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D crossed above its 30-day exponential moving average last week.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

• Gap Up: NPKI +14.2%, SVV +14.1%, IRTC +13.6%, EXAS +10.9%, HR +10.1%, TWLO +10.1%, DUOL +9.4%, NVST +7.6%, PRDO +7.3%, BTSG +6.9%, CART +6.4%, SPXC +6.1%, PRLB +6.1%, OLN +6%, ADPT +6%, RDDT +5.6%, RMAX +5.1%, ING +5.1%, FLR +5.1%, TILE +4.9%, COLM +4.7%, WSC +4.7%, BOOM +4.2%, WBS +4.1%, CBL +4.1%, ATEC +4%, DXCM +3.8%, ULCC +3.5%, BMRN +3.5%, RGA +3.2%, PLRX +3.1%, CNI +3.1%, RYAN +3.1%, SHEL +3.1%, GMAB +3%, ZETA +3%, BJRI +3%, SMMT +2.8%, MTZ +2.8%, KOD +2.7%, AMH +2.1%, LYV +2%,of note.

• Gap Down: XYZ -21.7%, DRH -18.5%, ARDX -16.5%, TEAM -15.7%, CABO -14.1%, TREE -13.4%, TARS -11%, CYTK -10.8%, VEL -8.6%, BBAI -8.1%, PRO -7.8%, RGP -7.5%, VIAV -6.6%, ROKU -5.9%, ABNB -4.6%, RRR -4.5%, MPWR -4.4%, LOAR -4.2%, ETNB -4.1%, OSPN -3.8%, GDDY -3.3%, ATEN -3.3%, WK -3.2%, AAPL -3.1%, PEB -3.1%, IR -3%, DLB -2.9%, FIVN -2.9%, GDOT -2.6%, TVTX -2.6%, SEM -2.4%, ALHC -2.4%, IPI -2.3%, ZEUS -2.1%, ASND -2%, PSO -2%of note.

Insider Action: None of note sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None of note see Insider Buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• Bloomberg: China Hints At Possible Thaw With U.S. (Bloomberg)

• Market Wrap:.Stocks Rally as S&P 500 eyes 9 day win streak. (Bloomberg)

• Chevron (CVX) cuts buyback. (Bloomberg)

• Meanwhile, Shell launches a $3.5 billion buyback. (CNBC)

• 5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)

Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.

Economic & Geopolitical:

• Federal Reserve Speakers of note today.

  • Fed Speakers are back in Blackout period until next FOMC meeting is concluded.

• Economic Releases:

  • May Nonfarm Payrolls are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to 130,00 from 228,000. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.20%. March Factory Orders are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to rise to 4.1% from 0.6%.

• President Trump's Daily Schedule.

  • President Trump participates in the RNC Spring Gala at 7:00 p.m. EDT.

M&A Activity and News:

• None of note.

Moving Average Table: Moves from 57% to 70% on Equity Indexes.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:

  • RBC Capital Markets US Banks Fixed Income Investor Symposium

• Shareholder Meetings: BDRX, ETR, GTE, ITW, OXY

• Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: GOOGL, PRAX

• Fireside Chat: None of note.

• R&D Day: None of note.

• FDA Presentation: DSGN: Data presentation on DT168

• Industry Meetings or Events:

  • Advanced Clean Transportation Expo

  • Ascend 2025

  • RSA Conference

  • TOKEN2049

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.

Upgrades: FTAI GRCE of note.

Downgrades: None of note.