QPI Morning Note -9/10/24: Let’s Get Ready To Rumble!

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday higher by 1.16% at 5471.05 from Friday lower by -1.73% at 5408.42. The overnight high was hit at 5,491.50 at 6:00 p.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5462.50 at 5:15 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 29 points. The current price is 5478.50 at 7:10 a.m. EDT lower by -1.00 points.

Most Important Article Of the Morning: Five Columnists Game Out the Debate (NYT)

Executive Summary: Stocks are flat this morning. Focus is on tonight’s debate.

•  3-Year Note auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

• NFIB came in lower than last month. API Crude Oil due at 4:30 p.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

• Beats:  AVO +0.20, CVGW +0.14, RBRK +0.09, ORCL +0.06 of note.

• Flat: 

• Misses:  None of note.

Capital Raises:

• IPOs For The Week: BCAX, CUPR, FLAI, KAPA, TDTH, YMAT, ZBIO,
  ZSPC 

• New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:

• IPOs Filed/Priced:

• Secondaries Filed or Priced:

  • STEP files secondary offering; to offer for sale 4,099,997 shares of Class A common stock.

  • IONS proposes public offering of $500 mln of its common stock

  • TERN commences $125 mln public offering of common stock

  • RLAY commences $200 mln offering of its common stock

  • HIMS: Form 8K.. to register 976,341 shares of the Company’s Class A common stock

  • VIK Announces Launch of Secondary Public Offering

• Notes Priced:

• Direct Offering:

• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares:

• Selling Shareholders of note:

  • KGS commences public offering of of 6,140,182 shares of its common stock by selling shareholder 

  • VIK files for 30,000,000 shares of common stock offering by selling shareholders

  • RNAC proposed resale of up to 6,501,150 shares of common stock offering by selling shareholders

• Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:

• Mixed Shelf Offerings:

  • BHF files mixed shelf securities offering

  • HIMS files mixed shelf securities offering

  • TYGO: FORM S-3 – $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering

• PIPE:

• Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:

  • HPE commences $1.35 bln offering of Series C Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock

• Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

Biggest Movers Up & Down After The Close:

• Movers Up:  AVO +15%, MTRX +10.5%, ORCL +9.4%, CVGW +8.3%, BOOT +7.5%, EVBN +6.2%, SPRY +4.4%, CDMO +4.2%

• Movers Down:  IONS -7.7%, RBRK -6.9%, HPE -5.5%, VIK -2.7%, RLAY -2.7%, STEP -2.4%, NBTB -2.3%, TXT -2.1%. 

News After The Close :

• ORCL partners with Amazon Web Services for multiple cloud services. “We are seeing huge demand from customers that want to use multiple clouds,” said Larry Ellison, Oracle Chairman and CTO. “To meet this demand and give customers the choice and flexibility they want, Amazon and Oracle are seamlessly connecting AWS services with the very latest Oracle Database technology, including the Oracle Autonomous Database.”

  • HOOD reports August operating data; Assets Under Custody (AUC) down 1% from July to $143.6 billion

  • PTEN updates August drilling activity. (Release)

  • Goldman (GS) sees trading revenues Q3 revenues down 10% in Q3. (Reuters)

  • TXT  is among several other companies awarded $5.4 bln U.S. Air Force contract

  • UAA announces an update to its FY25 restructuring plan, including additional initiatives to optimize the co’s strategic supply chain capabilities and overall business performance.

  • 10-Q or 10-K Delays –  None of note.

  • NASDAQ Delisting Notice – None of note.

Buybacks or Repurchases: Buybacks should be slow as most companies are in a blackout period as earnings season kicks into gear.

• NRDS authorizes new $50 million share repurchase program

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

Dividends Announcements or News:

• Stocks Ex Div Today: ELV TRV ROST OXY FIS PPL ZTO VFC UMBF YOU KTB TFSL CNO VCTR VSH CASH

• Stocks Ex Div  Tomorrow: HPQ AEE NWS NWSA G FSK AVT SR INSW GOGL KSS WGO SFL DOLE GES

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures S&P 500 -2.25 NASDAQ 100 -34.25 Dow Jones-31 Russell 2000 -3.48. Asia is higher ex Japan with Europe is lower this morning ex France. VIX Futures are at 18.85 from 19.90 yesterday while Bonds are at 3.721% from 3.75%  on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are lower with Natural Gas higher. Gold and Silver higher with Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $57,120 from $55,247 higher by +0.32% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

• Daily Positive Sectors: Technology, Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals and Financials of note.

• Daily Negative Sectors:  Communication Services of note.

• One Month Winners: Financials, Healthcare, Consumer Defensive, Real Estate, Consumer Cyclicals and Utilities of note.

• Three Month Winners: Real Estate, Utilities, Financials, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare of note.

• Six Month Winners: Utilities, Consumer Defensive, Real Estate, Financials and Communication Services of note.

• Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Healthcare note.

• Year to Date Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Utilities, Financials, Consumer Defensive and Healthcare of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Tuesday After the Close: GME

• Wednesday Before The Open: DBI of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beats: CGNT +0.07  of note.

• Flat:

• Misses: None of note.

• Still to Report: ASO

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: of note.

• Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.

Advance/Decline Weekly Update With Both Daily and Weekly Stats: A rather anemic bounce yesterday.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market (+2% or down more than -2%):

• Gap Up: AVO +19.8%, MTRX +9.6%, ORCL +8.2%, VRDN +6.8%, EVBN +6.8%, CVGW +6.3%, AZUL +6.2%, BOOT +5.3%, TXT +4.7%, INVH +4.4%, SPRY +4.2%, AGIO +3.2%, KGS +3.1%, CVAC +2.7%, VIR +2.3%, CDMO +2.2%, DCBO +2.1%

• Gap Down: RBRK -8.6%, IONS -7.9%, AU -6%, STEP -5.4%, HPE -5.3%, SGHC -3.2%, WVE -2.7%, NBTB -2.5%, VIK -2%

Insider Action: None of note see Insider buying with dumb short selling.  None of note see Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• Pre-Market Movers: AAPL ORCL BOOT BABA  (CNBC)

• Bloomberg Lead Story: Edgy Traders Wait For Trump Harris Debate Tonight. (Bloomberg)

• Markets Wrap: US Futures waver as traders wait CPI and debate catalysts. (Bloomberg)

• Southwest Airlines (LUV) Chairman Gary Kelly to step down next year as activist investor Elliott pushes for change. (CNBC)

• EU rules that Apple (AAPL) must pay $14.4 billion in back taxes. (CNBC)

• Astra Zeneca (AZN) falls on disappointing lung cancer drug results. (CNBC)

• Bank of America (BAC) raises minimum wage to $24 an hour. (MarketWatch)

• Big Take: Janet Yellen’s Predictions for the economy. (Bloomberg Podcast)

• Wealthion: The Weekly Recap: Recession vs Bullishness. (Podcast)

Economic:

• August NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was out at 6:00 a.m. EDT and came in at 91.20 from last month at 93.70,

• Weekly API Crude Oil Data is due out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.

Geopolitical:

• President Biden welcomes the Mens’s and Women’s NCAA Champsionship Teams of UConn and South Carolina at 11:00 a.m. EDT and 1:30 p.m. EDT.

• President Biden then heads to New York City at 4:55 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Speakers      

• Federal Reserve speakers are in blackout period this week and through next Wednesday.

M&A Activity and News:

Moving Averages On Major Indexes: Moves from 23%  to 30% of the moving averages being positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:

  • Barclays Global Financial Services Conference

  • BTIG Digital GamingDay

  • Baird Global Healthcare Conference

  • Bank of America 2024 Global Real Estate Conference

  • Barclays Global Financial Services Conference

  • Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference

  • Piper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference

  • ROTH MKM Solar & Storage Symposium

  • TD Cowen FutureHealth Conference

  • Wainwright Global Investment Conference

  • Wolfe Research TMT Conference

  • Fireside Chat: None of note.

  • Top Shareholder Meetings: EOSE, NKE, OTRK, ROIV, STEP

  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: CMPR, CPB, IDCC, IMUX, KRNT, LCID, LKQ, NXTD, RKT

  • Update: None of note.

• R&D Day: None of note.

  • FDA Presentation:

    • ALT: Data Presentation on Pemvidutide

    • NUVB: Data Presentation on Taletrectinib

  • Company Event:

  • Industry Meetings or Events:

    • Capital Link Shipping & Marine Services Forum

    • ESPEN Congress On Clinical Nutrition & Metabolism

    • ERS International Congress

    • NY Fashion Week

    • NYSE Energy/Utilities Investor Conference

    • Oracle CloudWorld

    • Quantum World Congress

    • RE+ Solar Industry Event

    • World Conference on Lung Cancer

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from QPI or its employees.

Upgrades: RLAY JCI EQR CFB 

Downgrades: