QPI Morning Note - 7/26/24: Futures Rebound Into PCE Core Release At 8:30 a.m. EDT
Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday lower by -0.51% at 5399.22 from Wednesday lower by -2.31% at 5427.13. The overnight high was hit at 5,488 at 4:55 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5434.75 at 4:05 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 54 points. The current price is 5482 at 7:00 a.m. EDT higher by +40.75 points.
Executive Summary: Two days ago we wrote, “Expect a volatile day”. Then yesterday we wrote, “Watch for a bottom in the next two to three trading days”. Right now it looks like Thursday’s low could be the bottom at 5390.95 on the S&P 500. However, this morning we get the latest PCE Core Data and a low reading will be needed if yesterday’s low is not going to be tested. Should be an interesting Friday. The Olympics begin tonight with the Opening Ceremonies.
PCE Core and Personal Income due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
Ove the weekend, Former President Trump speaks at a Bitcoin Conference and he is pro-Bitcoin.
Earnings Out After The Close:
Beats: DECK +1.03, FIX +0.60, CINF +0.33, TREE +0.33, HIG +0.26, MHK +0.25, NOV +0.23, WTW +0.23, BJRI +0.21, NSC +0.20, LPLA +0.17, EIX+0.16, TXRH +0.15, COLM +0.14, EMN +0.14, BYD +0.09, SKYW+0.09, BKR +0.08, VRSN +0.08, LHX +0.06 of note.
Flat: NXPI of note.
Misses: SAM -0.61, PFS -0.54, MGRC -0.41, PFG -0.20, JNPR -0.13, OLN -0.08, SKX -0.04, WY -0.01, PECO -0.01 of note.
Yet to Report:
Capital Raises:
IPOs For The Week: ACTU AZI BLMZ FLAI NIPG PMAX ORKT PGHL OS CON LINE
New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
IPOs Filed/Priced:
Secondaries Filed or Priced:
PTN: Form S-1.. Up to 4,849,915 Shares of Common Stock
KALA: FORM S-3 – 3,519,514 Shares Common Stock
GROM: Form S-1.. Up to 9,869,233 Units
Notes Priced:
GPI – Pricing of $500.0 Million Offering of Senior Notes
Direct Offering:
Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares:
Selling Shareholders of note:
Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
Mixed Shelf Offerings:
EIX files mixed shelf securities offering.
ONCY: Form F-10 C$150,000,000 Mixed Shelf
PIPE:
Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.
Biggest Movers Up & Down After The Close:
Movers Up: COUR +20.4%, CLLS +13.70%, DECK +10.3%, MHK +10.2%, UCTT +6.4%.
Movers Down: DXCM -37.50%, ZYXI -22.4%, OLN -8.7%, TNDM -7.5%, HMN -6.5%, PODD -6.3%, CUZ -4.7%, SAM -3.2%, SBCF -2.3%, PFS -2.2%
News After The Close :
WY acquires 84,300 acres of high-quality timberlands in Alabama for $244 million.
HMN sees Q2 EPS below consensus; lowers FY24 guidance
ICF awarded a new $1.4 billion award by The U.S. Department of Defense to design, develop, migrate and deploy cloud-based solutions to modernize the agency’s Defense Manpower Data Center.
Buybacks or Repurchases: Buybacks should be slow as most companies are in a blackout period as earnings season kicks into gear.
BANR authorized the repurchase of up to 1,722,787 shares of the Company’s common stock.
DXCM also announces a $750 mln share repurchase program.
BOC approves a share repurchase program under which the Company can repurchase up to $20,000,000 of its Class A common stock through September 30, 2025.
SKX Authorized $1 Billion Share Repurchase Program.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
JAZZ announces the election of a new independent director, Laura Hamill, to its Board of Directors.
ZYME announces the appointment of Leone Patterson as Executive Vice President, and Chief Business and Financial Officer, effective September 1, 2024.
SCHW appoints Michael Verdeschi to succeed Peter Crawford as the Company’s Managing Director and Chief Financial Officer, effective as of October 1.
Dividends Announcements or News:
Stocks Ex Div Today: COST PFE FAST J ACI SIG
Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: ASML BX WBS BCO PSEC WMK SLP VALU
ET increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.32/share from $0.3175/share
VOYA increases quarterly common stock dividend 12.5% to $0.45/share from $0.40/share
SWK increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.82/share from $0.81/share.
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures S&P 500 +42, NASDAQ 100 +202, Dow Jones +240, Russell 2000 +35.32. Asia is higher ex Japan and Europe is higher this morning. VIX Futures are at 16.56 from 17.35 yesterday while Bonds are at 4.23% unchanged on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are lower with Natural Gas lower as well. Gold higher, Silver lower and Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $67,233 from $64,231 higher by +3.84% this morning.
Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):
Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Materials, Industrials and Financials of note.
Daily Negative Sectors: Technology, Communication Services, Utilities and Healthcare of note.
One Month Winners: Real Estate, Financials, Energy, Utilities and Consumer Cyclical of note.
Three Month Winners: Technology, Real Estate, Financials, Utilities and Communication Services of note.
Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Utilities and Energy of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Industrials, and Energy of note.
Year to Date Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Industrials, Utilities and Consumer Defensive of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
Friday After the Close: None of note
Monday Before The Open:
Earnings of Note This Morning:
Beats: CHTR +0.51, BMY +0.45, CNC +0.30, CRI +0.26, MMM +0.25, NWL +0.15, POR +0.07, BCPC +0.06, AB +0.04, CL +0.04, WT +0.02 of note.
Flat: KDP of note.
Misses: HHH -0.93, SAIA -0.18, AON -0.16, BAH -0.14, SXT -0.05, B -0.03, TROW -0.01 of note.
Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
Positive Guidance: EME CBRE of note.
Negative Guidance: VC LEA AAL LKQ RS BC STM WST of note.
Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: A/D lines fell on Wednesday. Chart updated!
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market (+4% or down more than -4%):
Gap Up: COUR +26.9%, UCTT +15.3%, MHK +14%, DECK +10.8%, KARO +9.4%, UVE +7.4%, NSC +6.1%, PODD +5.5%, NWG +5.2%, BYD +4.3%, TFII +4%, CLLS +3.9%, KNSL +3.9%, TXRH +3.7%, CNC +3.5%, E +3.2%, FIX +3%, VLTO +2.9%, SSNC +2.9%, HTBK +2.7%, BAK +2.5%, BOC +2.3%, ISSC +2.1%, TREE +2.1% of note.
Gap Down: DXCM -35.2%, ZYXI -23.2%, CRI -7.4%, OLN -5.8%, PFS -4.6%, TNDM -4.1%, HIG -4%, TBBK -3.9%, SAM -3.4%, VOYA -2.8%, HMN -2.5%, SBCF -2.3%, BVN -2.3%, PFG -2% of note.
Insider Action: UPS sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. No names see Insider buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
Bloomberg Lead Story: Paris Trains Hit By Sabotage. (Bloomberg)
5 Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (CNBC)
Stocks Making The Biggest Moves Pre-Market – CRWD DECK DXCM SAM MHK SAM BMY WW (CNBC)
Markets Wrap: NASDAQ Futures up 1% in front of PCE Core data. (Bloomberg)
SEC Sues Citron Securities and Andrew Left over stock short selling. (Bloomberg)
Barron’s – Coca Cola Femsa (KOF) is more than just a bottler. (Barron’s)
Economic:
June Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise by 0.4% but down from last month’s 0.5%.
June PCE Core is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT as well and is expected to rise by 0.2% from 0.1%.
Baker Hughes Rig Count is due out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
Geopolitical:
The President receives the Daily Briefing today at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
President Biden meets with
Federal Reserve Speakers
Federal Reserve speakers are now in blackout mode as next week the FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday.
M&A Activity and News:
None of note.
Moving Averages On Major Indexes: Moves from 40% to 47% of the moving averages being positive.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
Sellside Conferences:
Fireside Chat: None of note.
Top Shareholder Meetings: None of note.
Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: None of note.
Update: None of note.
R&D Day: None of note.
FDA Presentation:
Company Event:
Industry Meetings or Events: Note that Former President Trump will speak on Saturday at the Bitcoin Conference throwing his support behind Bitcoin.
AIDS Conference
Bitcoin Conference
Farnborough Air Show
Comic-Con starts in San Diego
2024 Olympics
Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
Upgrade: FTAI NGLOY MHK LMT DUOL
Downgrade: RS