QPI Morning Note -3/6/25: Stocks Lower As The Rollercoaster Ride Continues, ECB Cuts Rates By 0.25%
Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Wednesday higher by 1.12% at 5842.63. Tuesday lower by -1.22% at 5778.15. The overnight high was hit at 5852 at 4:05 p.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5775.50 at 4:05 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 77 points. The current price is lower at 7:00 a.m. by -0.96% at 5795.25 higher by -56 points.
Executive Summary: Back and forth we go. The S&P 500 broke back above 5800. The range moves from 400 to 300 points on the S&P 500 for the year, 5800 to 6100. Futures are lower taking the S&P 500 back below 5800.
Breaking: European Central Bank cuts by 0.25%.
Key Events of Note Today:
4 Week Bill Auction at 11:30 a.m. EDT.
Monthly Trade Data due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
Weekly Jobless Claims out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and Natural Gas at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close
Beats: MDB +0.62, VSCO +0.30, VEEV +0.16, SOBO +0.11, ZS +0.09, SNBR +0.02, MRVL +0.01 of note.
Misses: ZYME -0.21, CCRN -0.07, KGS -0.17, LB -0.01 of note.
Capital Raises:
IPOs For The Week: APUS, FATN, KMTS. OMGE, SAGT,
WGRXNew IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
Secondaries Filed or Priced:
Notes Priced:
Axon (AXON) prices a $1 billion of 6.125% Senior Notes due 2030 and another $750 million of 6.25% Senior Notes due 2030.
Kellogs (K) Pricing of $26 Billion of Senior Notes
KREF Closing of New $550 Million Senior Secured Term Loan B
Direct Offering: None of note.
Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
Selling Shareholders of note:
SLN files for 5,942,233 shares of common stock offering by selling shareholders.
Mixed Shelf Offerings:
TCRX files $300 mln mixed shelf securities offering.
Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:
Biggest Movers Up & Down Yesterday:
Movers Up: TREE +13%, VEEV +7.4%, ALNT +7.4%, CLMB +6.3%, BALY +6%, ZS +4.3%, of note.
Movers Down: MDB -18.3%, MRVL -15.8%, MEI -12.1%, MLR -10.9%, SNBR -7.8%, RGTI -7.8%, GRND -7.6% of note.
News After The Close:
Franklin Resources (BEN) announces prelim February assets under management of $1.58 trillion, unchanged from January.
CORZ announces February 2025 production and operations updates; mines 215 bitcoin.
ASR announces that passenger traffic for February 2024 reached a total of 5.6 million passengers, representing a decrease of 2.6% compared to February 2023.
CBOE reports trading volume for February 2025. (Release)
Discord discussing preparations for an IPO as soon as this year. (NYT)
10K or Qs Filings/Delays – (Filed), TRMB (Delayed) of note.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
UCTT announces that Jim Scholhamer has resigned effective immediately as CEO for personal health reasons; Chairman Clarence Granger will assume the role of interim CEO.
Buybacks
MDB authorizes up to $200 mln for stock repurchases.
GRND authorizes up to $500 mln for repurchases; expires March 2027.
Dividends Announcements or News:
Stocks Ex Div Today: QCOM NTES FNAG EXPE YUMC TPR SGI JKHY ITT VNOM LB MOS AWI DINO VNT LEA BGC DNB TFSL OLN LBRT AAT.
Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow:
KAI increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.34/share from $0.32/share.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:15 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 -71, NASDAQ -317, Dow Jones -406 and Russell 2000 -31.95 . Europe is lower ex Germany with Asia higher ex Australia. Bonds are at 4.28% from 4.223% yesterday on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $90,258 from $90,344 higher by $+35by +0.04%.
Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):
Daily Positive Sectors: Materials, Consumer Cyclicals, Industrials and Technology were higher.
Daily Negative Sectors: Energy and Utilities were lower.
One Month Winners: Real Estate, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Healthcare of note.
Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Financials and Healthcare of note.
Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Cyclical and Utilities of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Financials, Utilities, Communication Services, Technology and Consumer Defensive of note.
Year to Date Winners: Financials, Healthcare, Consumer Defensive, Materials and Real Estate of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
Thursday After the Close:
Friday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
Flat: of note
Beats: JD+1.10, BURL +0.30, TPB +0.27, M +0.26, MRX +0.12, BJ +0.05, BTSG +0.01 of note.
Misses: GMS -0.48, THO -0.09 of note.
Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
Positive Guidance: CRDO CTOS of note.
Negative or Mixed Guidance: BURL VSCO of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: the A/D fell to major support making new lows, before a rebound and just made a new low.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
Gap Up: TREE +15.6%, ACDC +12.1%, CMPO +8.1%, ALGM +7.4%, VEEV +6.4%, BALY +6%, JD +6%, BTSG +5.6%, CXW +4.8%, ZS +4.4%, ECPG +4.1% of note.
Gap Down: MDB -18.2%, MEI -17.1%, MRVL -16.5%, CORZ -14.3%, MLR -14.1%, GRND -10.5%, RGTI -10%, SNBR -9.5%, DSGX -7.6%, GMS -6.3%, KGS -6.1%, YEXT -5.2%, VSCO -4.6%, SOBO -3.7%, AVGO -3.5%, DVAX -2.7%, UMC -2.5%, ALNT -2.3%, FSM -2% of note.
Insider Action: PK HUN MUR CLVT see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. ECPG AMCR see Insider Buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
Market Wrap: NASDAQ Futures reel from weak results. (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg: Trump to Delay Auto Tariffs in Mexico and Canada by One Month. (Bloomberg)
Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: NVDA MRVL AAPL HOOD. (CNBC)
MongoDB shares sink on guidance. (CNBC)
5 Things To Know Before the Market Opens. (CNBC)
Economic:
Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
January Trade Balance is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and December came in at $-98.4 billion.
Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)
President Trump’s Daily Schedule.
President Trump signs Executive Orders at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
Federal Reserve Philadelphia President Patrick Harker speaks at 8:45 a.m. EDT.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaks at 3:30 p.m. EDT.
Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks at 7:00 p.m. EDT.
M&A Activity and News:
.
Moving Average Table: Moves from 13% to 17%. Bonds and Commodities have weakened.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
Sellside Conferences:
Barclays Select Series: Industrial Energy & Infrastructure
JP Morgan UK Banks Forum
Morgan Stanley Energy & Power Conference
Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference
Stifel Consumer Executive Ski Summit
UBS Nuclear Conference
Shareholder Meetings: AMAT, COR, GLSI, MTSI. TDG
Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: CFLT, HUMA, IAUX, THMC, TNFA, VFC, WEN
Update: None of note.
Fireside Chat
R&D Day: None of note.
FDA Presentation:
Industry Meetings or Events:
Daniel Energy THRIVE Energy Conference
Centurion One Growth Conference
NABE Economic Policy Conference
Women in Data Science Conference
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from QPI or its employees.
Upgrades: TCE PRTS ZS XPO TPH MRVL MHO LEN KBH FCX DHI ALXO
Downgrades: BFB