QPI Morning Note -3/3/25: Stock Rebound Continues As Trump Unveils Crypto Reserve
Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Friday higher by 1.59% at 5954.50. Thursday lower by -1.59% at 5861.57. The overnight high was hit at 5989.25 at 6:55 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5947 at 7:35 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 42 points. The current price is higher at 7:00 a.m. by 0.42% at 5988.25 higher by +25 points.
Executive Summary: Last week we noted there could be a retest of 6100 and then 6000 on the S&P 500. That is what happened on Friday. Monday we broke below 6000. So since December the S&P 500 has traded in a range of 6000 to 6100 and now that moves to 6100 to 5900 with yesterday’s break back above 5900. The range moves from 300 to 200 points on the S&P 500. Futures are higher and trying to get back above 6000.
Articles of Note: See Bloomberg Odd Lots in Rags & Mags on Dalio’s comments on the coming U.S. Debt Crisis.
Key Events of Note Today:
Construction Spending and Factory Orders are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
3 & 6 Month Bill Auction at 11:30 a.m. EDT.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close
Beats: None of note. (>+0.30)
Flat: None of note.
Misses: SPR -2.43 of note. (>-0.15)
Capital Raises:
IPOs For The Week: APUS, BMGL, EPSM, FATN, MCRP, RYET,
WGRXNew IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
Secondaries Filed or Priced:
Notes Priced:
Direct Offering: None of note.
Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
Selling Shareholders of note:
SGI files for 34,200,000 shares of common stock offering by selling shareholders.
GSAT files for 1,964,214 shares of common stock offering by selling shareholders.
RAIL also files for 17,038,583 share common stock offering by selling shareholder.
Mixed Shelf Offerings:
T files mixed shelf securities offering.
AAOI files for $100 mln common stock offering.
MP files mixed shelf securities offering.
AFRM files mixed shelf securities offering.
MTZ files mixed shelf securities offering.
TXNM files mixed shelf securities offering.
WHD files mixed shelf securities offering.
CMCSA files mixed shelf securities offering.
LAES files mixed shelf securities offering.
AMG files mixed shelf securities offering.
HBAN files mixed securities shelf offering.
WTW files mixed securities shelf offering.
HASI files mixed securities shelf offering.
NAMS files for $500 mln mixed securities shelf offering.
RAIL files for $200 mln mixed securities shelf offering.
OUT files mixed securities shelf offering.
Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:
Biggest Movers Up & Down Last Week:
Movers Up: OMI (9.53 +53.25%), LNTH (93.19 +19.12%), RIGL (23 +14.48%), GRFS (8.49 +13.89%), TPC (29.25 +32.71%), HEI (264.29 +17.13%), ERJ (47.59 +15.4%), QRTEB (10.15 +407.5%), SRI (5.71 +35.31%), RRGB (5.66 +15.75%), COMM (6.33 +26.25%), ARLO (14.44 +25.89%), ITRI (108.3 +15.29%), RILY (6.49 +90.88%), GSHD (122.56 +14.88%), OIS (5.43 +14.45%) of note.
Movers Down: TNDM (21.84 -29.55%),TFX (132.7 -24.45%), ACHC (30.06 -24.2%), MYGN (10.75 -24.19%), AMRC (11.99 -35.85%), AAON (75.54 -27.11%), SERV (9.08 -24.44%), UCTT (24.5 -34.42%), AMBA (60.18 -23.04%), ECPG (36.97 -25.65%) of note.
News After The Close:
Alaska Air (ALK) announces that more than 6,900 flight attendants have ratified a new three-year contract.
Kinross Gold (KGC) to increase its stake in Relevant Gold to 19.9%; will acquire 15.41 mln shares at C$0.30/share.
10K or Qs Filings/Delays – SMCI (Filed), ASTH LFUS (Delayed) of note.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
BMBL names Ronald Fior as Interim CF.
Buybacks:
Dividends Announcements or News:
Stocks Ex Div Today: MCD NKE LMT SHW MCK NOC O CTVA DD HIG TPL MTB TW MLM K WRB SSNC RF BALL UHS JNPR HLI SF IPG HAS ALSN BERY BWA UFPI ESI GPI HR.
Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: ADI NEM ES KEY RYAN WLK SWK AA HRB PIPR MAC ATMU SBLK LZB EXPI CRAI
RRC increases quarterly cash dividend 12.5% to $0.09/share from $0.08/share.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:15 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 +25, NASDAQ +139, Dow Jones +117 and Russell 2000 -3.66. Europe is higher with Asia mixed. Bonds are at 4.25% from 4.26% Friday on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude and Natural Gas are higher. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $93,144 from $80,864 lower by $-944 by -1.01%.
Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):
Daily Positive Sectors: All were higher.
Daily Negative Sectors: None were lower.
One Month Winners: Real Estate, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Healthcare of note.
Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Financials and Healthcare of note.
Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Cyclical and Utilities of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Financials, Utilities, Communication Services, Technology and Consumer Defensive of note.
Year to Date Winners: Financials, Healthcare, Consumer Defensive, Materials and Real Estate of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
Monday After the Close:
Tuesday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
Beats: SGRY +0.07, NOMD +0.05, NABL +0.02 of note.
Flat: of note.
Misses: SPHR -1.37, NOVA -0.48, SNDX -0.26, FTRE -0.18, TGTX -0.04, OCUL -0.02, AVDL -0.02 of note. (>-0.09)
Still to Report: CRC PLUG of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
Positive Guidance: of note.
Negative or Mixed Guidance: of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: the A/D fell to major support making new lows, before a rebound and is now back to struggling.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
Gap Up: CANG +11.1%, CAN +11.1%, MLCO +7.7%, PSNL +3.1%, FFIE +2.6%, OGI +2.6%, WYNN +2.5% of note.
Gap Down: NOVA -13.9%, IDYA -6.6%, ADT -6.1%, QTRX -3.7%, VIAV -2.3% of note.
Insider Action: ADVM CRSP see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
Market Wrap: Stock Futures rise amid wagers that the selloff is overdone. (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg: Trump Heads Towards a Tariff Barrage on Mexico and Canada. (Bloomberg)
Europe races to craft a plan to save Zelensky and U.S. support. (Bloomberg)
Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: TSLA LUV CPRI COIN. (CNBC)
Bitcoin jumps $14,000 on crypto announcement. (CNBC)
5 Things To Know Before the Market Opens. (CNBC)
Bloomberg: Odd Lots – Ray Dalio on coming crisis in U.S. debt. (Podcast)
Economic:
January Construction Spending is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 1.3% from -0.9%.
February ISM Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 50.7% from 50.9%.
Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)
President Trump’s Daily Schedule.
President Trump makes investment announcement at 1 p.m. EDT.
Federal Reserve St, Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks at 11:35 a.m. EDT.
M&A Activity and News:
.
Moving Average Table: Move from 30% to 3%. Fixed Income and International show strength.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
Sellside Conferences:
Citi Global Property CEO Conference
Citizens JMP Technology Conference
Cowen Health Care Conference
Evercore Industrial Conference
J.P. Morgan India Forum
Morgan Stanley Energy & Power Conference
Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference
Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference
T.D. Cowen HealthCare Conference
Shareholder Meetings: CLSK, EAST, MOBX, TTOO
Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: AVPT, MCHP, PCG
Update: None of note.
Fireside Chat
R&D Day: None of note.
FDA Presentation:
Industry Meetings or Events:
Acute Kidney Injury and Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy Conference
NABE Economic Policy Conference
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from QPI or its employees.
Upgrades: RSKD ALL THO ONC MYTE KT BUD
Downgrades: LUV