QPI Morning Note - 12/6/24: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs and Hartnett Eyes Excess in US Markets

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 closed Thursday lower by -0.19% at 6075.11 from Wednesday higher by 0.61% at 6086.49. The overnight high was hit at 6089 at 3:50 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 6079.50 at 6:05 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 10 points. The current price is 6085 at 5:55 a.m.

Executive Summary: Jobs data hits the tape at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Expectation has a wide range of 155k to a high of 275k.

Key Events of Note Today:

• Economic releases of note include monthly Jobs data at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

Daily Chart Request: Want to see an Erlanger Chart? Simply email us at research@quantpartners.com.

Next up is Lululemon Athletica (LULU). The stock is strong technically with a rank of 90%. Short Intensity is high at 99% with the Short Ratio at 3.27. This morning the stock is at $376.30 up 9.13%.

• What to Do: We would buy this stock as a Short Squeeze.

• To Short or Not To Short: We are not okay with being short or shorting this name as it is a short squeeze.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close

• Beats: AGX+0.74, ULTA +0.61, RBRK +0.19, VEEV +0.17, LULU +0.16, DOMO +0.15, GWRE +0.13, SMAR +0.13, VSCO +0.12, GTLB +0.08, HCP +0.08, ASAN+0.05, COO +0.04, PATH +0.04, ZUMZ +0.04, DOCU +0.03, IOT +0.03, HPE +0.02, WOOF +0.02 of note.

• Flat: NAPA of note.

• Misses: SWBI -0.06 of note.

Capital Raises:

• IPOs For The Week: ALEH, CJMB, DGX, FCHL, FTRK, HIT, JUNS, LSE, NAMI, NTCL, YSXT, ZSPC

• Secondaries Filed or Priced:

  • AMC Files to sell up to 50 million Class A Shares via ATM Offer.

  • LSEA announces proposed secondary offering of 5,043,480 shares of common stock.

  • PROF intends to offer and sell common shares in an underwritten public offering.

• Selling Shareholders of note:

  • CYBR announces secondary offering of 1,142,538 ordinary shares by Triton Seller.

• Mixed Shelf Offerings:

  • BK files $40 billion mixed shelf securities offering.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

Biggest Movers Up & Down After The Close:

• Movers Up: ASAN +19.8%, DOCU +15.3%, ULTA +12.2%, LULU +9%, ZUMZ +7.1%,VEEV +7.1%, GTLB +6.8%, DOMO +2.2% of note.

• Movers Down: SWBI -13.8%, PROF -10.3%, PATH -4.8%, COO -4.6%, GWRE -4.1%, LSEA -3.1%, MAXN -3.1% of note.

News After The Close:

• VLRS reports November 2024 traffic results: load factor of 87%.

• CVX announces FY25 capex guidance range of $14.5 to $15.5 bln; Also expects to recognize restructuring charge of $700-$900 mln after-tax in Q4.

• ASR announces that passenger traffic for November 2024 reached a total of 5.8 million passengers, representing a decrease of 1.2% compared to November 2023.

• Equifax (EFX) and Mastercard (MA) announce partnership to combat payment fraud in Latin America.

• Port Authority of New York and New Jersey selects Tutor/O&G joint venture team, with Parsons (PSN) as the lead designer for $1.18 billion Newark AirTrain Replacement Program.

• BTBT announces monthly production update for November 2024; mines 44.9 Bitcoin.

• KOP will discontinue phthalic anhydride production at its facility in Stickney, Illinois, in 2025, which will result in pre-tax charges of $51-$55 mln through end of 2026.

• PTEN reports November 2024 drilling activity; had average of 105 drilling rigs operating in the United States.

• FAA notes that Boeing's (BA) plan is to slowly restart production later in December. (Reuters)

• Palantir Technologies (PLTR) and Shield AI team up on AI-powered autonomous aircraft. (Bloomberg)

• Pfizer (PFE) Showcases Scientific Leadership in Breast Cancer and Blood Disorders Across More than 100 Presentations at ASH and SABCS. (Releases)

• Meta-analysis published in Annals of Surgery shows benefits of da Vinci surgery from Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) across seven oncologic procedures compared to laparoscopic and open. (Releases)

• 10-K Delays - None of note.

Buybacks or Repurchases:

• BYD announces additional $500 million share repurchase authorization.

• LULU authorizes $1.0 billion increase in stock repurchase program.

• WING approves additional $500 million for repurchases; anticipates executing $250 mln accelerate share repurchase program commencing in 4q24.

• BY approves a new stock repurchase program that authorizes the Company to repurchase up to 1.25 million shares of the Company’s outstanding common stock.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

• UIS elects Mike Thomson, current President and Chief Operating Officer, to succeed Peter Altabef as company's CEO.

• OSIS appoints Ajay Mehra, current President of company's Security division and Executive Vice President, as new President and CEO.

• MG appoints Natalia Shuman as its new President and Chief Executive Officer, effective January 1, 2025.

• MRVL appoints Andrew Eckert as Chairman of the Board of Directors, effective Dec 5, 2024.

• IRWD COO and CFO Sravan K. Emany to retire, effective December 18; CEO Thomas McCourt to servce as principal financial officer on an interim basis until a new principal financial officer is designated.

Dividends Announcements or News:

• Stocks Ex Div Today: BAC PEP BKNG TT WM AJG GM NDAQ KMB AME NTRS GPC TPR GLPI CHRW TAP CHDN ORI KNX MLI BPOP

• Stocks Ex Div Monday: GOOG, GOOGL, UNH, FDX, SPG, UNP, ADI, BDX, FIS, CME, GOGL, G, GBDC, AIZ, ESEA, KTB, FAF, DLNG, SPTN, DCI, CVTR, CCBG.

• CRM quarterly cash dividend of $0.40 per share payable January 9, 2025.

• WEC announces that it is planning to raise the quarterly dividend on the company's common stock to $0.8925/share in the first quarter of 2025.

• TRIN increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.30/share from $0.28/share.

• ECL increases its quarterly dividend by 14% to $0.65/share; 1.1% annual yield.

• OC increases quarterly cash dividend 15% to $0.69/share from $0.60/share.

• ABM approves 18% increase to its quarterly dividend to $0.265/share; 1.9% annual yield.

• EMN increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.83/share from $0.81/share.

• UTZ approves annual dividend increase to $0.244/share from $0.236/share.

• LIEN $0.34 cash dividend for 4q 2024

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 -2, NASDAQ +7, Dow Jones -19 and Russell 2000 +4. Europe is mixed with the CAC 40 +1.5%. Asia is mixed with HSI +1.5% and Shanghai +1%. Bonds are at 4.18% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are lower with Natural Gas down 2%. Gold and Silver are higher. The U.S. Dollar is down slightly versus the Euro, up a tad versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $97,777.

Sector Action:

• Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Consumer Defensive, Energy, Financials and Utilities of note.

• Daily Negative Sectors: Healthcare, Materials, Industrials, Communication Services and Technology of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Friday After the Close: None of note.

• Monday Before The Open: MOMO of note.

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beats: GCO +0.32 of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: GCO, GWRE, VEEV, DOCU, GTLB, RBRK of note.

• Negative or Mixed Guidance: COO, WOOF of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: As SPX moves up through December, AD line has started to pull back. Something to watch.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

• Gap Up: UPC, ADD, ZBAO, GXAI, LEV, PGHL, RBRK, ASAN, FET, USEA, SAG, SOUN, HLVX, XHG, ITP, AQMS, BBAI, ALBT, KIRK

• Gap Down: ORIS, ZSPC, CAMP, FOXX, PRFX, VRPX, TARA, MTEM, SWBI, PBM, BRTX, BTCT, MIGI, ANTE, BJDX, RKDA, BSLK, IOT, JYD, STSS

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. No stock see Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• Lead Story on Bloomberg: US Jobs Report to Show Hiring Rebounded After Storms and Strike. (Bloomberg)

• 5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)

• Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: LULU, DOCU, ULTA, WOOF. (CNBC)

• Market Wrap: Traders Adopt Caution in Countdown to Jobs Report (Bloomberg)

• Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett notes the S&P 500's SPY price-to-book ratio has surged to 5.3x this year, approaching the 5.5x peak reached in March 2000 during the height of the dot-com bubble.

• This market maven raised his S&P 500 target three times this year. Now he says there’s too many bulls (MarkeWatch)

• Bloomberg: The Big Take - Macron’s Grand Project in Ruins After French Government Falls. (Podcast)

Economic:

• November Nonfarm Payrolls is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to 190,000 from 200,000.

• The December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 73.50 from 71.80.

• Treasury Buyback Announcement, 11:00 am EDT

• Baker Hughes Rig Count, 1:00 p.m. EDT

• Consumer Credit. 3:00 p.m. EDT

Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)

• 9:15 a.m. EDT Federal Reserve Board of Governors Michelle Bowman, At the Missouri Bankers Association Executive Management Conference (Virtual)

• 10: 30 a.m. EDT Federal Reserve Chicago President Austan Goolsbee (non-voter)

• 12:00 p.m. EDT (voter) Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Beth M. Hammack (voter)

• 1:00 p.m. EDT Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly (voter)

M&A Activity and News:

• AVVIY nears prelim agreement to acquire Direct Line Insurance Group after $4.4 bln bid. (Bloomberg)

Moving Averages On Major Equity Indexes: Moves down from 93% to 85%.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:

  • Bank of America Clean Energy Symposium

  • Barclays Eat Sleep Play Shop Conference

  • Citi Global Healthcare Conference

  • Evercore ISI HealthConX Conference

  • Goldman Sachs Industrials and Materials Conference

  • Goldman Sachs Energy Clean Tech & Utilities Conference

  • Jefferies Renewables & Clean Energy Conference

  • Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference

  • Needham Growth Conference

  • Piper Sandler Healthcare Conference

  • Roth Annual Sustainability Private Capital Event

  • Sidoti & Co. Small Cap Conference

  • UBS Global Technology & AI Conference

  • UBS Industrials and Transportation Conference

  • Wolfe Research Small and Mid-Cap Conference

• Fireside Chat: None of note.

  • FDA Presentation:

    • CGON: Data Presentation for Cretostimogene

  • Industry Meetings or Events:

    • AMZN re:Invent Conference

    • Nasdaq London Investor Conference

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

• Upgrades: RSG, PCH, MO, KC, HOOD, FTI, EPAM, DG, BRX, BMO, ACN

• Downgrades: PLD, LBTYA, ACDC