Morning Note - 07/29/26: Fed Announcement At 2:00 p.m. EDT Followed By Presser At 2:30 p.m. EDT, Stocks Up Modestly

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading:

• The S&P 500 finished Tuesday higher by 0.21% at 7428.78 from Monday higher by 0.02% at 7413.18.

• The S&P 500 sees support now at 7400 from 7500. Resistance is now at 7500 from 7600. In the last four months, support has moved from 6300 to 7400.

• S&P 500 hit its 25th All-Time Closing High of 2026 on Tuesday, 6/2/26.

• Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.631% from 4.622%.

Executive Summary:

• Stocks are now in a two-week losing streak, with the S&P 500 dropping -0.61% in the last week, ended 7/24.

• U.S. moves into Week 23 of its attack on Iran, almost six months. Fighting has stopped as there are questions about munitions inventory.

• 3 Day Winning Streak on the S&P 500 began on Friday.

• The S&P 500 had its second loss for the month of July of more than -1%. We are now clustering with another loss of -1%. So hunker down with 3 trading days left in the month.

Key Geopolitical Events of Note:

• Economic news of note.

  • Monthly - FOMC Meeting Concludes at 2:00 with Announcement and then Presser at 2:30 p.m. EDT

  • Weekly – MBA Mortgage Applications and Crude Oil Inventories of note.

• Fed Speakers of Note today: The Federal Reserve Chairman speaks at 2:30 p.m. EDT.

• President Trump’s schedule:

  • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.

  • Greets the Montana State University FCS National Champions at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

  • Receives the Intelligence Briefing at 11:00 a.m. EDT.

  • Makes an Announcement with the Secretary of Transportation at 3:00 p.m. EDT.

  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 4:30 p.m. EDT.

  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 5:30 p.m. EDT.

Capital Raises of Note/Pricings:

• IPO Filings & News: IOND JMKE REF are coming public this week.

• Secondaries Filed Or Priced:

  • AMIX: Form S-3.. 857,462 Shares of Common Stock Issuable Upon Exercise of Series D Warrants.

  • CARR - FORM S-3ASR - 15,279 Shares of Common Stock, Par Value $0.01 Per Share.

  • FEIM - Proposed Public Offering of $100 million.

  • POLA: Form S-1.. Up to 18,341,893 Shares of Common Stock.

  • SDOT - FORM S-1 - Up to 6,008,772 Shares of Common Stock.

• Notes Filed Or Priced:

  • ZION - Pricing of senior note.

• Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.

• Private Placement: None of note.

• Direct Offering: None of note.

• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.

• Selling Shareholders:

  • WES files for 19,389,239 common unit offering by selling shareholders.

  • AVTX files for 128,189 share common stock offering by selling stockholders.

• Mixed Shelf Offerings

  • ENGS: Form F-3.. UP TO $200,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

• Beats: EXLS +21.45, THG +1.47, STX +0.61, LOGI +0.60, QRVO +0.53, GEF +0.50 of note. (+0.50 >)

• Misses: ASH -0.98, NBR -0.74, AXS -0.41, CZR -0.35, OI -0.15 of note. (-0.15<)

• Flat: of note.

Winners From After The Close: VRRM +24.5%, RCKY +17.6%, ENPH +2.8%, NEO +2.6%, SLDE +2.6%, TER +13.5%, BE +10.8%, MANH +10.6%, NOV +7%, STX +5.3%, F +5.1%, CAKE +3.7% of note.

Losers From After The Close: OI -13.7%, CSGP -12.4%, CAR -11.3%, SWKS -10.5%, ORN -8.1%, KLAC -7.5%, RBBN -6.2%, NXPI -4.8%, RNST -4.3%, LSTR -4.2% , PPG -4.1%, QRVO -3%, WM -3%, EXLS -2.6%, ROG -2% of note.

News after the close:

• Trump Administration planning to end subsidy program for Medicare drug plans. (NYT)

• Ford (F) raises FY26 outlook for Adjusted EBIT to $10-11 billion from $8.5-10.5 billion; raises FY26 adjusted free cash flow guidance to $6-7 billion from $5-6 billion.

• OpenAI agent compromised an account at another tech company. (Reuters)

• Trump Administration bans Chinese humanoid robots.

• Meredith Whitney warns of a “US Reckoning” in Q4. (Bloomberg)

• 10Q Delays - None of note.

Executive, Corporate Changes:

• KMT names Joseph Alvarado incoming chairman; William Lambert to retire in October.

• WRB names Christopher Moede president of Berkley Risk.

Buybacks of Note:

• SWKS announces new $2 billion repurchase program,

Dividend Info:

• ENTG AM PSEC PXED MCBS goes Ex-Div Wednesday.

• UMBF raises quarterly common dividend 16.3% to $0.50 per share.

• SWKS suspends dividend program.

What Happening This Morning:

Futures S&P 500 +11, NASDAQ 100+23, Dow Jones -151. Europe is mixed while Asia is higher ex Japan. Bond yield is at 4.635% from 4.622% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold is lower, Silver higher and Copper is lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $64,414 from $65,291.

Sector Action:

• Daily Energy, Utilities, Materials, Consumer Cyclicals and Healthcare were higher

• Daily: Industrials, Consumer Defensive and Financials were lower.

• One-Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare and Real Estate of note.

• Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.

• Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.

• Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.

• Year-to-Date Winners: Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Wednesday After the Close:

• Thursday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beat:IONS +1.77, LAD +1.30, AER +1.00, GNRC +0.90, BIIB+0.66, GIB +0.65,SCL +0.57, GRMN +0.51 of note. (>0.51)

• Missed:PSN -0.82, SITE-0.21, EVR -0.12, JCI -0.10, EXP -0.08 of note. (<-0.07)

• Flat: None of note.

• Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – OSK SHW PYPL UPS CARR XPRO of note.

• Mixed – SPGI of none.

• Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: Market Breadth has rebounded.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

• Gap Up: PMN +21.3%, of note

• Gap Down: AMKR -7.7%, of note.

Insider Action: GSHD CVBF sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Other Trading Action: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific. Bolded source means paywall.

• AI Companies Are Recruiting Electricians and Carpenters by the Thousands. (NYT)

• What To Watch For at the Fed Meeting. Author is Fed Link Nick Timiraos (WSJ)

• US Says Iran Attacks Forces While Saudi Arabia Strikes Iraq. (Bloomberg)

• Market Wrap: US Stocks Rise as Fed Call and AI Earnings Loom. (Bloomberg).

Economic & Geopolitical:

• Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: The Federal Reserve (FOMC) blackout period runs through Thursday, July 30, 2026.

• President Trump’s schedule for today:

  • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.

  • Greets the Montana State University FCS National Champions at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

  • Receives the Intelligence Briefing at 11:00 a.m. EDT.

  • Makes an Announcement with the Secretary of Transportation at 3:00 p.m. EDT.

  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 4:30 p.m. EDT.

  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 5:30 p.m. EDT.

• Economic Data Out –

  • Weekly

    • Crude Oil Inventories out at 10:30 p.m. EDT.

    • MBA Mortgage Applications out at 7:00 a.m. EDT.

  • Monthly

    • FOMC Meeting ends with Announcement at 2:00 p.m. EDT.

    • Press Conference with Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh at 2:30 p.m. EDT.

M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 53% from 46% of Equities are Positive, and 36% from 16% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:

  • BTIG Biotechnology Conference

  • Keefe Bank Investor Conference

• Top Analyst, Investor: AMSS CAPR NRXP OTLK of note.

• Shareholder Meetings: CPRI of note.

• Fireside Chat: None of note.

• FDA Presentation: None of note.

• R&D Day: None of note.

• Meetings:

  • ASRS

  • AIDS 2026

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.

Upgrades: MANH RBBN STLD TXN WFRD of note.

Downgrades: GEMI RLI of note.

Initiations: Buys: IRD MASS MMED of note. Sells: INSP STAA of note.