Morning Note - 07/22/26: Stocks Lower As Oil Rises

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading:

• The S&P 500 finished Tuesday higher by 0.89% at 7509.20 from Monday lower by -0.19% at 7443.28.

• The S&P 500 sees support now at 7500 from 7400. Resistance is now at 7600 from 7500. In the last four months, support has moved from 6300 to 7500.

• S&P 500 hit its 25th All-Time Closing High of 2026 on Tuesday, 6/2/26.

• Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.626% from 4.592%.

Executive Summary:

• Stocks are now in a one-week losing streak, with the S&P 500 dropping -1.55% in the last week, ended 7/17.

• U.S. moves into Week 22 of its attack on Iran, almost six months. Fighting has broken out on both sides and there is no deal. It is FUBAR.

• 3 Day Losing Streak on the S&P 500 ended on Tuesday.

• The S&P 500 had its first loss of more than -1%. for July last Friday. One more loss of greater than -1% and we could be clustering with another loss of -1%.

Key Geopolitical Events of Note:

• Economic news of note.

  • Monthly - None of note

  • Weekly –

    • MBA Mortgage Applications and Crude Oil Inventories are out this morning.

• Fed Speakers of Note today: The Federal Reserve (FOMC) blackout period runs through Thursday, July 30, 2026.

• 20-Year Bond Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

• President Trump’s schedule:

  • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.

  • Heads to Dover Air Force Base to receive Service Members Bodies from Iran War at 11:00 a.m. EDT.

  • Then heads to Marietta, Georgia to deliver remarks at 3:00 p.m. EDT. Returns to the White House late afternoon.

Capital Raises of Note/Pricings:

• IPO Filings & News: None of note.

• Secondaries Filed Or Priced:

  • DYN - Pricing of Upsized $375 Million Public Offering of Common Stock.

  • FDX: Form S-3ASR - debt securities - common stock.

  • QTEX: Form F-1.. Up to 6,785,715 Ordinary Shares.

  • TOP - Full Exercise of All Outstanding Warrants Following Cashless Exercise.

  • WPRT: Form F-1.. 4,854,369 Common Shares.

• Notes Filed Or Priced:

  • FDX: Form S-3ASR - debt securities - common stock.

  • HTGC - Prices Institutional Notes Offering of $325.0 Million 6.300% Notes due 2031.

• Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.

• Private Placement:

  • AIRX - Closing of $3.5 Million Private Placement.

• Direct Offering: None of note.

• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.

• Selling Shareholders: None of note.

• Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

• Beats: COF +1.14, CB +0.48, AIR +0.15, RRC +0.14, ALK+0.07, IBKT +0.05, EWBC +0.02, OZK +0.01 of note.

• Misses: WFRD -0.35, PEGA -0.08, FFBC -0.05, WBS -0.04, NBHC -0,03, EQT -0.02 of note.

• Flat: WAL HWC of note.

Winners From Tuesday: FNWD +20.2%, SMCI +18%, RKLB +6.5%, OKLO +5.8%, CPHI +5.7%, DELL +5.7%, HPE +4.9%, WFRD +3.2%, MRVL +2.1%,

Losers From Tuesday: CALX -13.5%, PEGA -13.4%, NBHC -5.7%, AIR -4.9%, OZK -2%.

After The Close:

• SuperMicro (SMCI) guides JunQ revs to the low end of guidance, but raises gross margin guidance; backlog rose to record levels.

• Palo Alto Networks (PANW) to buy Embrace, adds digital experience monitoring to observability platform.

• Armstrong World (AWI) raises quarterly dividend to $0.339 per share from $0.308 per share.

• Oklo Inc. (OKLO) and X-Energy (XE) join Trump administration program to bring new nuclear reactors online faster for AI. (Bloomberg)

• EQT signed a 5-year offtake agreement with a large Asian integrated energy company in Q2.

• Rocket Lab (RKLB) awarded a $266 million Air Force contract for suborbital launch.

• 10Q Delays - None of note.

Executive, Corporate Changes:

• Tapestry (TPR) Unit Kate Spade New York announces the appointment of Jonathan Saunders as Executive Creative Director, effective August 26, 2026.

Buybacks of Note:

• AWI adds $800 million to buyback.

Dividend Info:

• APH CNQ STM ESLT QSR CINF WRB SGHC HTLD goes Ex-Div Wednesday.

• STX NXPI ABEV GFS BFC ITRN goes Ex-Div Thursday.

• NTRS raises quarterly common dividend to $0.88 per share.

What Happening This Morning:

Futures S&P 500 -20, NASDAQ 100 -180.75, Dow Jones -47. Europe is higher while Asia is mixed. Bond yield is at 4.625% from 4.595% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas higher. Gold and Silver are higher with Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $66,000 from $66.157

Sector Action:

• Daily Energy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Defensive and Communication Services were higher.

• Daily Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Industrials were lower.

• One-Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare and Real Estate of note.

• Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.

• Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.

• Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.

• Year-to-Date Winners: Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Wednesday After the Close:

• Thursday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beat: NTRS +1.52, TDY+0.49, MCO +0.42, PM +0.17, WAB +0.15, PHM +0.12, TEL +0.10, SF +0.09, CME +0.08, RPM +0.07, T +0.06, SCCO +0.04, ONB +0.02 of note.

• Missed: CALM -0.84, GEV -0.70, BKU -0.03 of note.

• Flat: None of note.

• Still to Report: BMI IRDM OTIS RCI TNL of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – TDY TEL GEV of note.

• Mixed – None of none.

• Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – OTIS of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: Market Breadth has weakened.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

• Gap Up: FNWD +17.3%, SMCI +16.6%, AIRJ +14.2%, OSUR +5.3%, HPE +4.8%, JOBY +4.8%, DELL +4.6%, RKLB +4.3%, OKLO +3.8%, EQNR +3.2% of note

• Gap Down: CPHI -21.2%, PEGA -15.4%, DYN -9.5%, CLDX -7.5%, SKHY -5.5%, AIR -5.2%, CALM -4.3%, TEL -4.3%, ALAB -2.9%, OZK -2.6%, MU -2.4% of note.

Insider Action: None sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. CAG sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: CV of note.

Other Trading Action: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific. Bolded source means paywall.

• Trump Approves Nuclear Deal with Saudi Arabia. (WSJ)

• Rubio Signals No Let up On Iran Strikes. (NYT)

• Pay Zero Federal Tax With Tax Gain During Low Income Years . (USA Today)

• Trump’s 100% Generic Drug Tax After Two Years Threatens Supply. (Bloomberg)

• Market Wrap: Stocks Fall Ahead of Alphabet Earnings as Oil Rises. (Bloomberg)

Economic & Geopolitical:

• Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: The Federal Reserve (FOMC) blackout period runs through Thursday, July 30, 2026.

• President Trump’s schedule for today:

  • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.

  • Heads to Dover Air Force Base to receive Service Members Bodies from Iran War at 11:00 a.m. EDT.

  • Then heads to Marietta, Georgia to deliver remarks at 3:00 p.m. EDT. Returns to the White House late afternoon.

• Economic Data Out –

  • Weekly

    • MBA Mortgage Applications are due out at 7:00 p.m. EDT.

    • Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

  • Monthly

    • None of note.

M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 70% from 30% of Equities are Positive, and 0% from 3% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences: None of note.

• Top Analyst, Investor: DRTS SCHW XNCR of note.

• Shareholder Meetings: CHPT PKE SPOK of note.

• Fireside Chat: None of note.

• FDA Presentation: None of note.

• R&D Day: None of note.

• Meetings:

  • ASRS

  • Farnborough International Airshow

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.

Upgrades: CRWV DOCN EFOR GMAB of note.

Downgrades: VNO of note.

Initiations: Buys: APPS IPFX MAMA ISPR KEEL PM TPB CRSR DUKR IMMX LYEL BUY SIND of note. Sells: None of note.