Morning Note - 07/16/26: More Economic Data Ahead For Today. Stocks Lower Ex the Dow

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading:

• The S&P 500 finished Wednesday higher by 0.38% at 7572.40 from Tuesday higher by 0.38% at 7543.59. (back to back +0.38% - what are the odds? Well...0.3% to 0.5% using 2 decimals for performance...thanks Gemini! That is once every 200 to 300 trading days)

• The S&P 500 sees support now at 7500 from 7400. Resistance is now at 7600 from 7500. In the last four months, support has moved from 6300 to 7500.

• S&P 500 hit its 25th All-Time Closing High of 2026 on Tuesday, 6/2/26.

• Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.569% from 4.608%.

Executive Summary:

• Stocks are now in a three-week winning streak, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.23% in the last week, ended 7/10.

• U.S. moves into Week 21 of its attack on Iran, almost six months. Fighting has broken out on both sides and there is no deal.

• 2 Day Winning Streak on the S&P 500 started Tuesday.

Key Geopolitical Events of Note:

• Economic news of note.

  • Weekly –

    • Jobless Claims of note.

    • Natural Gas Inventories of note.

  • Monthly-

    • Retail Sales, NAHB Housing Index and Pending Home Sales are out in the morning.

• Fed Speakers of Note today: Logan at 12:30 a.m. EDT then Jefferson at 7:00 p.m. EDT.

• President Trump’s schedule:

  • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.

  • The President meets with Senator Darline Graham at 9:30 a.m. EDT.

  • The President meets with the President of El Salvador at 11:00 a.m. EDT.

  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 2:00 p.m. EDT.

  • Participates in Signing Time at 5:00 p.m. EDT.

  • The President delivers an Address to the Nation at 9:00 p.m. EDT.

Capital Raises of Note/Pricings:

• IPO Filings & News: None of note.

• Secondaries Filed Or Priced:

  • ERAS closes upsized common stock offering at $17.50 per share.

  • AUID: Form S-1.. Up to 4,637,852 Shares of Common Stock.

  • BURU - $38.0 Million Public Offering Priced at Approximately 30% Premium to Advance Tekne. Acquisition and Retire Outstanding Indebtedness.

  • CSQR - Pricing of Initial Public Offering.

  • SOBR - Exercise of Warrants for $3.1 Million Gross Proceeds.

  • STXS: Form S-3.. Common Stock, $0.001 par value 19,449,603 Shares & STXS: Form S-3.. Common Stock, $0.001 par value 108,868,331 Shares.

• Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.

• Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced:

  • ASTS SpaceMobile (ASTS) launches $1.0 billion convertible notes offering due 2034.

• Private Placement: None of note.

• Direct Offering: None of note.

• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.

• Selling Shareholders:

  • BDRX files for 2,555,095 ADS offering by selling shareholders.

  • STXS files for 19,449,603 share common stock offering by selling shareholders; also files for 108,868,331 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.

• Mixed Shelf Offerings:

  • ACH files for $200 million mixed securities shelf offering.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

• Beats: JBHT +0.17, UAL +0.11, HOMB +0.03 of note.

• Misses: None of note.

• Flat: None of note.

Winners From Tuesday:, EOSE +11.4%, JBHT +7.4%, HOMB +2.4%

Losers From Tuesday: ASTS -12.7%, FEIM -10.5%, GSBC -3.8%, UAL -2.4%

After The Close:

• ASTS SpaceMobile (ASTS) launches $1.0 billion convertible notes offering due 2034.

• UAL beats on earnings and revenues, guidance in line.

• JB Hunt (JBHT) beats on earnings and revenues.

• Webull (BULL) reports June customer assets down 3% month over month as trading activity accelerates.

• As of May 31, 2026, Nike (NKE) has received $302 million and recorded $684 million of outstanding IEEPA tariff receivables reflected within Accounts receivable, net on the Consolidated Balance Sheets.

• Lab Corp (LH) to pay $14.5 million to resolve False Claims Act allegations.

• 10Q Delays - PKE NUCL

Executive, Corporate Changes:

• CLDX CFO Sam Martin to retire in 2027.

• RXST names Aziz Mottiwala CEO; Ron Kurtz to become chief medical officer.

• THG names COO Richard Lavey CEO-elect as John Roche plans retirement at end of 2026.

Buybacks of Note:

• JBL authorizes new $1.5 billion share repurchase program.

• SKWD increases share repurchase authorization to $100 million from $50 million.

Dividend Calendar:

• WSO GHC KAI ALG GBX ARE go Ex-Div today.

• EGO WSM UDR SNX RVTY AYI WDFC MGRC KWR DCOM KARO CYD CBRL go Ex-Div Friday.

• JBSS declares $1.05/share special dividend, raises annual dividend to $0.95 per share from $0.90 per share.

• RF raises quarterly common dividend to $0.30/share from $0.265 per share.

What Happening This Morning:

Futures S&P 500 -15.50, NASDAQ 100 -209.50, Dow Jones +114. Europe is lower while Asia is lower ex Hang Sang. Bond yield is at 4.573% from 4.609% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold is lower, Silver is lower and Copper is higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $64,079 from $64,584.

Sector Action:

• Daily Communication Services, Healthcare, Consumer Cyclical and Consumer Defensive were higher.

• Daily Technology, Industrials and Materials were lower.

• One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare and Real Estate of note.

• Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.

• Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.

• Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.

• Year to Date Winners: Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Today After the Close:

• Friday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beat: UNH +1.50, TSM +0.50, GE +0.42, USB +0.08, CFG +0.06, CBSH +0.04, IIIN +0.01 of note.

• Missed: ASML -0.33 of note.

• Flat: None of note.

• Still to Report: STT, PLD, MAN, ABT of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – MATX of note.

• Mixed – None of none.

• Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: Market Breadth remains in good shape.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

• Gap Up: EOSE +8.9%, CMPS +8.2%, JBHT +8.1%, UNH +7.5%, STXS +3.1%, YSS +2.8%, BIDU +2.7%, MOLN +2.3%, TEAM +2%, GSBC +2% of note

• Gap Down: ASTS -9.5%, FEIM -8.3%, TSM -4.1%, ACH -3.4%, BDRX -3.1%, BHP -2.9%, UAL -2.7%, of note.

Insider Action: None sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Other Trading Action: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific. Bolded source means paywall.

• Wall Street Traders are Having Their Best Year Ever. (WSJ)

• Diesel Hits $5 a gallon again, up 33% this year. (NYT)

• IRS raises mileage rate mid year due to rise in gas prices. (USA Today)

• Eli Lilly To Buy Psychedelic Firm AtaiBeckley for up to $3.8 billion. (Bloomberg)

• Market Wrap: US Stocks Fall as AI Trade Faces Fresh Scrutiny. (Bloomberg)

Economic & Geopolitical:

• Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:

  • Federal Reserve Dallas President Lorie Logan at 12:30 p.m. EDT.

  • Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson speaks at 7:00 p.m. EDT.

• President Trump’s schedule for today:

  • Participates in Executive Time at 1:00 a.m. EDT.

  • The President meets with Senator Darline Graham at 9:30 a.m. EDT.

  • The President meets with the President of El Salvador at 11:00 a.m. EDT.

  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 2:00 p.m. EDT.

  • Participates in Signing Time at 5:00 p.m. EDT.

  • The President delivers an Address to the Nation at 9:00 p.m. EDT.

• Economic Data Out –

  • Weekly

    • Jobless Claims out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

    • Natural Gas Inventories are out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

  • Monthly

    • June Retail Sales is out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to 0.3% from 0.90%.

    • July NAHB Housing Index is out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 37 from 35.

    • June Pending Home Sales are out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to 0.40% from 3.80%.

M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 73% from 73% of Equities are Positive, and 36% from 16% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:

  • B. Riley Securities Mind Muscle & Vision Summit

• Top Analyst, Investor: ABX NEPH of note.

• Shareholder Meetings: IAC OTLK VS of note.

• Fireside Chat: None of note.

• FDA Presentation: None of note.

• R&D Day: None of note.

• Meetings:

  • ASRS

  • American Society of Retina Specialists

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.

Upgrades: None of note.

Downgrades: NTLA LULU WRB of note.

Initiations: Buys: RMBS SNPS CDNS EYPT RLAY SECZ TSAT of note. Sells: None of note.