Morning Note - 05/05/26: Stocks Rebound, Was Yesterday's Fighting Just A Dream? "All is well, remain calm".

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading:

• The S&P 500 finished Monday lower by -0.41% at 7200.75 from Friday higher by 0.29% at 7230.12.

• The S&P 500 sees support now at 7200 from 7100. Resistance is now at 7300 from 7200. In the last two months, support has moved from 6300 to 7200.

• S&P 500 hit its 12th All-Time Closing High of 2026 Friday.

• Futures are higher this morning by +25.5 higher by +0.35% at 7255 on the SP 500 at 6:25 a.m. EDT.

• Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.426% from 4.414%.

Executive Summary:

• Stocks had a fifth up week, with the S&P 500 gaining 13.52% in the last five weeks. We are now up 3.61% since the peak in January on the S&P 500 as of last Friday’s close.

• U.S. moves into Week 11 of its attack on Iran. Key to this week is to see if the ceasefire is broken and fighting resumes.

• Economic news of note.

  • Weekly - API Petroleum Institute Date of note.

  • Monthly - Global U.S. Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and New Home Sales of note.

• Fed Speakers of Note today: Federal Reserve New York President John Williams at 12:50 p.m. EDT.

• Treasury 3 & 6 Month Bill Auction at 11:30 a.m. EDT.

• President Trump’s schedule:

  • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.

  • Signs a Proclamation at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 12:00 p.m. EDT.

  • Press Briefing by Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 3:00 p.m. EDT.

  • Participates in a Pre-Tape Interview at 3:00 p.m. EDT.

  • Participates in a Rose Garden Dinner at 7:00 p.m. EDT.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

• Beats: ALSN +0.50, FANG +0.49, INSP +0.38, OTTR +0.31, VVX +0.29, BWXT +0.20, TNC +0.18, FN +0.16, DUOL +0.12, AEIS +0.11 of note. (>+0.10)

• Misses: None of note.

• Flat: BRX ARE of note.

Capital Raises:

• IPOs For The Week: AVLN BWGC PS RIKU SBMT of note.

• New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: IPOs Ahead This Week: Cerebras Systems said to target up to $4 billion raised in IPO.

• IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.

• Secondaries Filed Or Priced:

  • PSHG: Form F-3.. up to 6,233,522 Common Shares underlying previously-issued Warrants.

  • ACXP: Form S-1.. 1,650,170 Shares of Common Stock.

  • JDZG - Pricing of up to $12.0 Million Registered Direct Offering.

• Notes Filed Or Priced:

  • ARCC announces it has priced an underwritten public offering of $800 million in aggregate principal amount of 5.550% notes due 2030.

  • OI - Pricing of Senior Notes Offering.

  • RNST - Pricing of Subordinated Notes.

  • STZ - Prices Offering of Senior Notes.

• Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.

• Private Placement: None of note.

• Direct Offering: None of note.

• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.

• Private Placements:

  • OCGN announces its intention to offer, subject to market conditions and other factors, $115 million aggregate principal amount of Convertible Senior Notes due 2034 in a private offering.

  • ASO announces its wholly-owned subsidiary, Academy, priced a private offering that is exempt from the registration requirements of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, of $500 million aggregate principal amount of 5.875% senior secured notes due 2031.

• Selling Shareholders: None of note.

• Mixed Shelf Offerings:

  • BHVN files mixed securities shelf offering.

  • KPTI files for $400 million mixed securities shelf offering.

  • ARTL: FORM S-3 - $75,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.

  • PSHG $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf.

News After The Close:

• Palantir (PLTR) beats and raises but stock still lower.

• Lots earnings this evening, see earnings section.

• Yen’s brief spike leaves traders thinking about intervention. (Bloomberg)

• Rising gas prices are crushing restaurant sales. (Fox Business News)

After the Close Winners:EVER +25.7%, STRL +20.3%, PINS +15.3% FLY +9%, VVX +12.1%, FLY +9%, JBTM +7.4%, INVX +6.5%, CYRX +6.3%, ERO +6.1%, SONO +5.4%, TDUP +5.3%, ALG +4.5%, IIPR +3.1%, LSCC +2.7%, PSKY +2.4%, NUVB +2%.

After the Close Losers: WGS -41.1%, INSP -15.7%, ICHR -15.2%, DUOL -12.4%, FN -11.8%, TCMD -9.2%, IAC -8.6%, AMRC -7.9% , AMRC -7.9% , AEIS -7.6%, ON -5.7%, RPAY -5%, ADEA -4.8%, TDW -4.7%, VAL -4.4%, MATX -3.4%, NMFC -3%, DORM -2.6%, ALSN -2.6%, HSTM -2.6%, RIG -2.5%, GBD -2%,PLTR -1.6%

Buybacks:

• UDR announces its Board of Directors has authorized increasing its share repurchase program by 25 million shares, effective immediately.

• VNO ups its buybaack program by $300 million shares.

• TNC authorizes a new share repurchase program of up to 2,000,000 shares of the Company’s common stock, effective April 29, 2026

Executive, Corporate Changes:

• COO announces that its Board of Directors has appointed Paul Keel as an independent director, effective July 1, 2026.

• POOL appoints John Watwood as President and Chief Executive Officer, appoints John Stokely as Executive Chair, and reaffirms FY26 guidance.

• EW announces the appointment of Theodora Mistras as CFO, effective at the end of May.

Dividend Announcements:

• Top Names Ex-Dividend Today: TXN SAP ITUB BKR ALC LVS SYF IDA VTMX BANR SRCE BY SPH AMAL of note.

• Top Names Ex-Dividend Tuesday: None of note.

• TXO increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.36 per share from $0.30 per share for the quarter ended March 31, 2026.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:45 a.m. EDT)

• Futures S&P 500 +23 , NASDAQ 100 +143, Dow Jones +103. Europe is higher ex FTSE while Asia is mixed. Bond yield is at 4.426% from 4.414% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $80,808 higher by +1.02% up $806 from $78,970 higher by 0.28%.

Sector Action:

• Daily Positive Sectors: Energy led the way higher.

• Daily Negative Sectors: All others were lower.

• One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare and Real Estate of note.

• Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.

• Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.

• Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.

• Year to Date Winners: Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Today After the Close:

• Wednesday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beat: MPC +0.91, CCJ +0.57, IT +0.40, WAT +0.39, LDOS +0.29, ATKR +0.23, IART +0.14, FTRE +0.11, HSIC +0.10 of note. (>+0.10%)

• Missed: FERG (-1.04), WLK (0.66), MPLX (0.15), EMBC (-0.15), INGR (-0.14), XPRO (-0.13), IDYA (-0.12) of note.

• Flat: None of note.

• Still to Report: Several of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning - NJR BMRN EVER PLTR LSCC PINS NHI PAY ICHR OGS of note.

• Mixed - None of none.

• Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning - INSP VVX DUOL PSKY ON AMRC WGS of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

• Gap Up: BLZE +45.9%, STRL +21.9%, EVER +19.8%, PINS +16.6%, FLY +11.8%, VVX +8.5%, BUD +7.8%, GPK +7.5%, FTRE +6.9%, TDUP +6.4%, IART +6%, SONO +5.9%, FIS +5.7%, ENLT +5.7%, ATKR +5.6%, WAT +5.2%, INVX +5%, GRAB +4.7%, MD +4.4%, NJR +3.9%, VOYG +3.8%, IIPR +3.8%, ERO +3.8%, CYTK +3.7%, HSTM +3.7%, PAY +3.5%, NBTX +3.3%, LOMA +3.2%, ABVX +3%, TNC +3%, RVTY +3%, MSA +2.6%, ADUS +2.4%, DD +2.4%, LDOS +2.1%of note.

• Gap Down: WGS -41.7%, AVNW -27.3%, INSP -22.2%, EMBC -18.4%, JRVR -15.8%, ICHR -12.4%, FN -10.6%, ADTN -10.1%, OCGN -9%, IAC -8.5%, AUDC -8.4%, DUOL -7.9%, AMRC -7.2%, KOS -6.4%, AEIS -6.2%, RPAY -5.5%, MATX -4.9%, FMS -4.9%, BLSH -4.5%, ETN -4.1%, TCMD -4%, HSBC -3.7%, KPTI -3.5%, ON -3.5%, TDW -3.5%, VTRS -3.2%, IRD -3.1%, ADEA -3.1%, OCSL -3.1%, NMFC -3%, POOL -2.6%, POWL -2.6%, VAL -2.5%, CRGY -2.4%, PLTR -2.3%, GBDC -2.2%, of note.

Insider Action: None see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. UUU see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Other Trading Action: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• WSJ Lead Story: Attacks on U.S. Warships in Strait Test Trump’s Desire to End Iran War. (WSJ)

• NY Times Lead Story: White House Considers Vetting AI Models Before They Are Released. (NYT)

• USA Today: SpaceX Rocket will crash into the moon on August 5th warns astronomer. (USA Today)

• Bloomberg: US-Iran Ceasefire holds despite turbulent Monday. (Bloomberg)

• Market Wrap: Stocks bounce and oil slips as truce holds. (Bloomberg)

Economic & Geopolitical:

• Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:

  • Federal Reserve Governor Bowman at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

  • Federal Reserve Governor Barr at 12:30 p.m. EDT.

• President Trump’s schedule for today:

  • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.

  • Signs a Proclamation at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 12:00 p.m. EDT.

  • Press Briefing by Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 3:00 p.m. EDT.

  • Participates in a Pre-Tape Interview at 3:00 p.m. EDT.

  • Participates in a Rose Garden Dinner at 7:00 p.m. EDT.

• Economic Data Out -

  • Weekly -

    • None of note

  • Monthly -

    • Global U.S. Services PMI is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and came in last month at 51.30.

    • April ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. and expected to fall to 53.90 from 54.

    • New Home Sales for February and March are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and January came in at 587,00.

M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 88% from 100% of Equities are Positive, and 0% from 4% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:

  • BMO Government, Reserve & Asset Managers Conference

  • Davidson Financial Institutions Conference

  • KeyBanc Industrial Private Company Conference

  • Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference

  • RBC US Banks Fixed Income Investor Symposium

  • WFC Real Estate Securities Conference

• Top Analyst, Investor: CLYM of note.

• Shareholder Meetings: ALB AXP BAX BMY CVNA D DHR GE HSY MTW PLNT of note.

• Fireside Chat: None of note.

• FDA Presentation: None of note.

• R&D Day: None of note.

• Meetings:

  • Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology

  • Digestive Disease Week

  • IBM Think

  • Milken Institute Global Conference

  • RJ Mexico Mining Conference

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.

Upgrades: DVN ULTA of note.
Downgrades: INSP (2) of note.