Morning Note - 03/26/26: Stocks Lower As Ceasefire Seems Far Away
Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:
The S&P 500 finished Wednesday higher by 0.54% at 6591.90 from Tuesday lower by -0.37% at 6556.37.
The S&P 500 sees support now at 6500 from 6600. Resistance is now at 6600 from 6700.
S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on 1/27/26. It has been over one month since a new all-time high.
Year to date the S&P 500 is -4.23% from -3.70% on Tuesday’s close.
Futures are lower this morning by -43.75 (-0.66%) at 6597 on the SP 500 around 6:30 a.m. EDT.
Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.376% from 4.32%.
Executive Summary:
Stocks have lost -3.12% in the last three weeks and -6.76% since the peak in January on the S&P 500. We are not out of the “Danger Zone”.
U.S. moves into Week Four of its attack on Iran. Key to this week is the conflict making progress on a ceasefire.
The S&P 500 is now clustering with multiple (4) drops of greater than -1%.
Key Events of Note Today:
Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
Weekly - Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
Monthly -None of note.
7-Year Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
Fed Speakers of Note today: Cook 4:00 p.m. EDT, Miran at 6:30 p.m. EDT, Jefferson 7:00 p.m. EDT and Barr 7:10 p.m. EDT.
President Trump’s schedule:
Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
Participates in a Cabinet Meeting at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
Delivers Remarks at the Greek Independence Day Celebration at 4:00 p.m. EDT.
Participates in Signing Time at 5:45 p.m. EDT.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close:
Beats: NAVN +0.24, FUL +0.02 of note.
Misses: JEF -0.19, WS -0.16, MLKN -0.02, JBS -0.02, KRMN -0.01, EPAC -0.01 of note.
Flat: None of note.
Capital Raises:
IPOs For The Week: None of note.
New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
CBUS - Proposed Public Offering of Class A Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants.
OTLK - Closing of $5.0 Million Public Offering.
STM: Form F-3ASR - 24,755,584 Ordinary Shares.
Notes Filed Or Priced:
APO - Prices Offering of Senior Notes.
EARN - Prices Offering of Unsecured Notes.
Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced:
LBRT - Pricing of Upsized $475.0 Million Convertible Senior Notes Offering.
Private Placement: None of note.
Direct Offering: None of note.
Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
Selling Shareholders: None of note.
Private Placements: None of note.
Mixed Shelf Offerings:
BRCC: Form S-3.. $500,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
CE: Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf.
EDAP: Form S-3.. US$125,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
NKTX: Form S-3.. $350,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
PMN: Form S-3.. $200,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
SMX: Form F-3.. $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
News After The Close:
Activist Hedge Fund ADW Capital pushes Driven Brands (DRVN) to explore sale or breakup amid Roark criticism. (WSJ)
Rigetti (RGTI) intends to invest up to $100 mln in the UK to accelerate quantum computing development.
Jefferies (JEF) beat on revenues but misses on earnings.
10K or 10Q Delays - None of note.
Buybacks: None of note.
Executive, Corporate Changes: None of note.
Dividends Announcements or News:
Top Names Ex-Dividend Today: CW INVH MTN GTY of note.
Top Names Ex-Dividend Thursday: of note.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:20 a.m. EDT)
Futures S&P 500 -45, NASDAQ 100 -194, Dow Jones -292. Europe is lower while Asia is lower ex China Bond yield is at 4.382% from 4.32% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $69,400 lower by -2.09% down $1511 from $71,821 higher by 3.48% up $2418.
Sector Action:
Daily Positive Sectors: All others were higher.
Daily Negative Sectors: Energy was lower.
One Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
Six-Month Winners: Materials, Healthcare, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Communication Services and Technology of note.
Year to Date Winners: Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Real Estate of note.
Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
Today After the Close:
Friday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
Beat: LOVE +0.20, DOO +0.17 of note.
Missed: LMRI -0.55, CMC -0.12 of note.
Flat: SCVL of note.
Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning - FUL KRMN NAVN of note.
Mixed - None of note.
Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning - None of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update:
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
GapUp: LPX +50.4%, KOD +26.4%, NAVN +24.6%, PGEN +20.6%, SLND +20.5%, NEXT +4.4%, WKHS +4.1%, GLNG +3.6%, HNRG +2.4%, GSM +2.4%, CRBG +2.4%, GO +2.3% of note.
GapDown: CBUS -20.2%, MLKN -16.2%, WS -14%, DERM -7.8%, BHRB -5.4%, EPAC -4.2%, BTG -2.9%, LBRT -2.7%, JBS -2.6%, EGO -2.5%, CELC -2.1%, KRMN -2.1% of note.
Insider Action: NEXT sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. MGM SRZN sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
WSJ Lead Story: Trump Tells Aides He Wants Speedy End To The War. (WSJ)
Bloomberg Lead: . (Bloomberg)
NY Times Business Section Lead Story: Meta and Google found guilty in social media addiction case. (NYT)
USA Today: Covid Variant Cicada growing in U.S. (USA Today)
Thoughtful Money: Is Cuba Next? (Podcast)
Guy Adami interviews George Noble on RiskReversal. (Podcast)
Trump is out again this morning on Truth Social, goading the Iranians to come to the table before it’s too late.
Economic & Geopolitical:
Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: Cook 4:00 p.m. EDT, Miran at 6:30 p.m. EDT, Jefferson 7:00 p.m. EDT and Barr 7:10 p.m. EDT
President Trump’s schedule for today:
Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
Participates in a Cabinet Meeting at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
Delivers Remarks at the Greek Independence Day Celebration at 4:00 p.m. EDT.
Participates in Signing Time at 5:45 p.m. EDT.
Economic Data Out -
Weekly
Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
Monthly
None of note.
M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.
Moving Average Table: 37% from 23% of Equities are Positive, and 32% from 0% Bonds are Positive.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
Sellside Conferences:
Craig Hallum NewSpace Conference
RBC Capital Markets Global Ophthalmology Conference
Top Analyst, Investor: BMO INM JBTM MDCX MRX SUNB of note.
Shareholder Meetings: CIEN DOGZ JEF of note.
Fireside Chat: None of note.
FDA Presentation: None of note.
R&D Day: None of note.
Meetings:
CERAWeek
RSA Conference
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.
Upgrades: ARM NUE SGI WAB of note.
Downgrades: GLDD NTR TIC TKR of note.