Morning Note - 03/12/26: Iran Refuses To Go Quietly Into The Night, Futures Lower As Damage Rises

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

• The S&P 500 finished Wednesday lower by -0.08% at 6775.80 from Tuesday lower by -0.21% at 6781.48.

• The S&P 500 sees support now at 6700 from 6800. Resistance is now at 6800 from 6900.

• S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on 1/27/26. It has been over one month since a new all-time high.

• Year to date the S&P 500 is -1.02% from -0.94% on Tuesday’s close.

• Futures are lower this morning by -28.75 (-0.42%) at 6750.50 on the SP 500 around 6:35 a.m. EST.

• Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.22% from 4.165%.

Executive Summary:

• Stocks lost -0.44% two weeks ago and -2.02% last week. We are not out of the “Danger Zone”.

• U.S. moves into Week Two of its attack on Iran. Key to this week is a potential takeover of the Strait of Hormuz.

• The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest is out for the period of 2/13 and 2/27. NYSE rose 1.16% while NASDAQ fell -0.41%.

• We are adding a new statistic that a client suggested. The total Dollar amount of short positions each time we get an update of short interest. As we build history, this will be valuable data. Currently, $1.726 trillion is short. The most shorted sector is Software at $284 billion followed by Semiconductors at $150 billion and in third Pharmaceuticals at $147 million.

Key Events of Note Today:

• Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.

  • Weekly - Jobless Claims and Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 8:30 and 10:30 a.m. EDT.

  • Monthly - Housing Starts and Factory Orders are due out at 8:30 a.m. and 10:00 a.m. EDT

• 30 Year Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

• Fed Speakers of Note today: Now in the blackout period before the next FOMC Meeting.

• President Trump’s schedule:

  • Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.

  • Receives the Intelligence Briefing at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 1:30 p.m. EDT.

  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 3:15 p.m. EDT.

  • Participate in a Women’s History Month Event at 4:00 p.m. EDT with the First Lady.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

• Beats: GRDN +0.10, PATH +0.04, DSGX +0.03, SFIX +0.03, NTSK +0.02 of note.

• Misses: BMBL -4.29, HPK -0.17, WOOF -0.03 of note.

• Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises:

• IPOs For The Week: None of note.

• New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.

• IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.

• Secondaries Filed Or Priced:

  • BTAI - Closing of $8.0 Million Registered Direct Offering.

  • NOG - Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock.

• Notes Filed Or Priced:

  • CRC - Pricing of Upsized Private Offering of $350 Million of Additional 7.000% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2034.

  • CRM - Prices Public Offering of Senior Notes.

  • KGS - Upsizing and Pricing of $1,000,000,000 Senior Unsecured Notes Offering.

• Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.

• Private Placement:

  • AGH - Closing of $9.0 Million Private Placement.

  • LGVN - Closing of Private Placement of up to $30 Million.

• Direct Offering: None of note.

• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.

• Selling Shareholders: None of note.

• Private Placements: None of note.

• Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.

News After The Close:

• Frequency Electronics (FEM) announces contract awards valued at approximately $45 million.

• Crowdstrike (CRWD) and Perplexity announce a partnership to integrate the Falcon platform with Comet Enterprise.

• Apple’s (AAPL) foldable iPhone is expected to offer an iPad-style interface when unfolded.

• Trump says the U.S. will draw a little bit from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Buybacks:

• TEL authorizes a $3.0 billion share repurchase program.

• PANW approves $1 billion increase to its share repurchase authorization.

Executive, Corporate Changes:

• NVTS appoints Tonya Stevens as CFO, effective March 30.

• PTON appoints Saqib Baig as interim CFO, effective March 27, 2026.

Dividends Announcements or News:

• Stocks Ex Div Today of note: HD FNV LUV AGI EQX AMKR FRO LKQ POOL GGB CHRD BDC MCY MDU CGAU MPT CON TRMD AMBP VSH LMAT CASH NSSC SFL PRG of note.

• Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow of note: of note.

• BBW increases quarterly dividend to $0.23/share from $0.22/share.

• TEL increases its quarterly dividend by 10% to $0.78/share.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:30 a.m. EST)

• Futures S&P 500 -33, NASDAQ 100 -108, Dow Jones -283. Europe is lower while Asia is lower as well. Bond yield is at 4.226% from 4.165% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold and Silver are lower while Copper is higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $70,556 from $69,654 lower by -0.11% at $-82 from $70,754 higher by 2.56% up $1,781.

Sector Action:

• Daily Positive Sectors: Energy and Technology were higher.

• Daily Negative Sectors: All others were lower.

• One Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Real Estate and Consumer Defensive of note.

• Three-Month Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Healthcare and Financials of note.

• Six-Month Winners: Materials, Healthcare, Communication Services, Industrials and Energy of note.

• Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Communication Services, Industrials, Technology and Financials of note.

• Year to Date Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Consumer Defensive and Real Estate of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Today After the Close:

• Friday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beat: DG +0.27, LI +0.02 of note.

• Missed: CPB -0.06 of note.

• Flat: None of note.

• Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning - PATH of note.

• Mixed - None of note.

• Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning - LI of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

• GapUp: LWLG +26.1%, CDXS +23.6%, BMBL +20.1%, WOOF +17.5%, XNET +12.7%, FLY +9.3%, EH +7.7%, VEL +6.7%, FOSL +3.2%, PHAR +3.1%, MUX +2.5%, TEAM +2.4%, FUTU +2.2% of note.

• GapDown: NTSK -15%, KEQU -14%, CRBP -8.7%, FTK -8.7%, ASTL -8.5%, HPK -7.2%, PATH -5%, GYRE -4.8%, NVGS -4.6%, SRI -3.5%, DSGX -3.2%, WLTH -3%, GFS -2.8%, Q -2%, LI -2% of note.

Insider Action: TSLX sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. SONO sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• WSJ Lead Story: Oil Rallies as IEA Declares Biggest Every Supply Disruption. (WSJ)

• Markets Wrap: Stocks fluctuate with Brent Crude at $90. (Bloomberg)

• NY Times Business Section Lead Story: Business Asks the TACO Question About Iran. (NYT)

• Bloomberg Lead: IEA Proposes Record Release of Emergency Oil Reserves. (Bloomberg)

• USA Today: Oil Price Mount After Strikes on Tankers. (USA Today)

• Iran fires on Dubai, Kuwait, Bharain and Qatar overnight.

Economic & Geopolitical:

• Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: Now in the blackout period before the next FOMC Meeting.

• President Trump’s schedule for today:

  • Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.

  • Receives the Intelligence Briefing at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 1:30 p.m. EDT.

  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 3:15 p.m. EDT.

  • Participate in a Women’s History Month Event at 4:00 p.m. EDT with the First Lady.

• Economic Data Out -

  • Weekly

    • Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

    • Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

  • Monthly

    • January Housing Starts are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and expected to fall to 1,340,000 from 1,404,000.

    • January Factory Orders are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and the last update saw them at -0.70%.

M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 30% from 27% of Equities are Positive, and 0% from 12% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:

  • BAC Financial Services Conference

  • Barclays Healthcare Conference

  • Canaccord Digital Assets Symposium

  • Jefferies Med Tools Summit

  • Leerink Global Healthcare Conference

  • JP Morgan Gaming, Lodging, Restaurant & Leisure Management Forum

  • Truist Human Capital Day

• Top Analyst, Investor: EPAM JLL KLAC LCID OMC of note.

• Shareholder Meetings: AMAT BURU FFIV FLNC HURC NBY WEL of note.

• Fireside Chat: None of note.

• FDA Presentation: None of note.

• R&D Day: None of note.

• Meetings: None of note.

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.

• Upgrades: APTV DOW LYB PAM WOOF of note.

• Downgrades: CAG CPB GIS of note.