Morning Note - 03/03/26: Stocks Getting Hammered As Iran Fights Back

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

• The S&P 500 finished Monday higher by 0.04% at 6881.62 from Friday lower by -0.43% at 6878.88.

• The S&P 500 sees support now at 6800 from 6900. Resistance is now at 6900 from 7000.

• S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on 1/27/26. It has been one month since a new all-time high.

• Year to date the S&P 500 is 0.53% from 0.49% on Wednesday’s close.

• Futures are lower this morning by -114.25 (-1.65%) at 6772.25 on the SP 500 around 6:40 a.m. EST.

• Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.098% from 3.966%.

Executive Summary:

• Stocks were higher two weeks ago by 1.07% on the S&P 500 but then lost -0.44% this past week. We are not out of the “Danger Zone” through yesterday and this morning that is confirmed.

• Bitcoin is still below $70,000 from 2/5.

• US increased Middle East Air Power to highest level since 2003 Iraq Invasion. And now we know why as we began actions against Iran over the weekend.

• There were three days with losses greater than -1.0% so the S&P 500 is in clustering mode for February. Take away: the chances of another month with losses of more than -1% are moderate to high with actions in Iran.

Key Events of Note Today:

• Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.

  • Weekly - API Petroleum Institute Data is due out at 4:30 p.m. EST.

  • Monthly - None of note.

• Fed Speakers of Note today: Williams 9:55 a.m. EST, Kashkari 11:45 a.m. EST

• President Trump’s schedule:

  • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EST.

  • Participates in a Greeting with the Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany at 11:00 a.m. EST and then has a Bilateral Meeting at 11:15 a.m. EST and a Bilateral Lunch at 11:45 a.m. EST.

  • Participates in a Meeting with the Secretary of Treasury and the Secretary of Energy at 2:00 p.m. EST.

  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 3:00 p.m. EST.

  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 5:00 p.m. EST.

• 3 & 6 Month Auction at 11:30 a.m. EST.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close: (Beats > $0.10)

• Beats: TDW +3.64, DAVE +1.26, LIFE +1.24, CORZ +0.58, MDB +0.17, CRDO +0.16, LMB +0.16 of note.

• Misses: RIOT -1.67, TREE -0.87, PLUG -0.53, SGRY -00.18, ASTS -0.09, ACHR -0.02 of note.

• Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises:

• IPOs For The Week: None of note.

• New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.

• IPOs Filed/Priced: PayPay (PAYP) files amended IPO prospectus, disclosing it intends to offer 31.05 million ADSs with projected price range of $17-$20 per share.

• Secondaries Filed Or Priced:

  • ALHC - Pricing of Secondary Offering.

  • BTSG - Pricing of Secondary Offering of Common Stock and Concurrent Share Repurchase.

  • HTO - Pricing of Offering of Common Stock with Forward Component.

  • MAIA - Pricing of $30 Million Underwritten Public Offering of Common Stock.

  • NRG Launch of Secondary Common Stock Offering.

• Notes Filed Or Priced:

  • APH: FORM S-3ASR - Senior Debt Securities.

  • APLD - Proposed Offering of $2.15 Billion of Senior Secured Notes to fund Polaris Forge 2 Campus.

• Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced:

  • CRGY - Offering of $400 Million Private Placement of Convertible Senior Notes Due 2031.

• Private Placement: None of note.

• Direct Offering: None of note.

• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.

• Selling Shareholders:

  • FANG: Pricing of Secondary Common Stock Offering by Diamondback Energy, Inc and Certain Affiliates of EnCap Investments, L.P. and Oaktree Capital Management, L.P..

• Private Placements: None of note.

• Mixed Shelf Offerings:

  • ALHC: FORM S-3ASR - Mixed Shelf Offering.

  • BANC: FORM S-3ASR - Mixed Shelf Offering.

  • DAC: Form F-3ASR Mixed Shelf.

  • NWBI: FORM S-3ASR - Mixed Shelf Offering.

  • OVV: Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf.

  • RCKT: FORM S-3 - $400,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.

  • UNH: Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf.

  • WSBC: Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf.

News After The Close:

• Secretary of State Rubio at press conference says Energy Department will be rolling out a “program” to mitigate rise in energy prices from attacks on Iran; says hardest hits on Iran are yet to come; says U.S. not postured for ground troops in Iran, but President Trump will never rule out anything.

• MongoDB (MDB) beats on estimates and revenues but weaker for Q1 but higher for Fiscal Year 2027.

• IAC may sell Care.com for $320 million.

• U.S. considers limiting Nvidia (NVDA) H200 sales to 75,000 per Chinese customer

Buybacks:

• DAVE increases share repurchase authorization to $300 million.

• INGM authorizes $100 million share repurchase authorization.

Executive Changes:

• PLUG hires Jose Luis Crespo will assume the role of Chief Executive Officer effective March 2, 2026, bringing deep industry experience and a strong record of commercial leadership.

• ASAN will promote Aziz Megji to the role of Chief Financial Officer, effective March 24, 2026.

Dividends Announcements or News:

• Stocks Ex Div Today of note: MCD ADI ITUB KEY PIPR RUSHB RUSHA CNK OLN ECO LZR of note.

• Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow of note: None of note.

• AXP increases quarterly dividend 16% to $0.95/share from $0.82/share.

• WM increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.945/share from $0.825/share.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:425 a.m. EST)

• Futures S&P 500 -94, NASDAQ 100 -443, Dow Jones -680. Europe is lower while Asia is lower as well. Bond yield is at 4.096% from 3.966% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas higher. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $67,056 lower by -3.02% down $2096 from $66,358 higher by 1.54% up $975.

Sector Action:

• Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Industrials, Technology and Real Estate were higher.

• Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Defensive, Healthcare, Consumer Cyclical and Communication Services were lower.

• One Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Real Estate and Consumer Defensive of note.

• Three-Month Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Healthcare and Financials of note.

• Six-Month Winners: Materials, Healthcare, Communication Services, Industrials and Energy of note.

• Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Communication Services, Industrials, Technology and Financials of note.

• Year to Date Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Consumer Defensive and Real Estate of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Today After the Close:

• Wednesday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beat: AZO +0.48, THO +0.30, TGT +0.28, KTB +0.09, ONON +0.05 of note.

• Missed: SE -0.15 of note.

• Flat: None of note.

• Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning - None of note.

• Mixed - None of note.

• Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning - ONON THO TGT KTB of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

• GapUp: OUST +14.5%, INGM +9.6%, TREE +8.6%, PLUG +7.7%, SEM +6.8%, AMRC +5.5%, DAVE +4.7%, OVV +4.5%, FANG +4.4% of note.

• GapDown: MAIA -28%, MDB -27.1%, SGRY -23.9%, LIF -19.3%, CERS -16.6%, HROW -15.5%, CRDO -13.9%, NUVB -11.3%, ONON -10.7%, LMB -10.6%, BBAI -9%, PSIX -8.3%, ACHR -6.9%, QUBT -6.8%, ALB -6.3%, ALG -6.2%, AS -5.3%, NRG -4.9%, PHG -4.9%, BTSG -4.7%, RIOT -4.7%, HLIO -4.3%, VTS -3.9%, HTO -3.8%, CORZ -3.8%, ESPR -3.7%, NVDA -3.2%, VNOM -3.2%, IHRT -3.2%, XPO -2.9%, ASTS -2.8%, TNXP -2.4%, AXP -2.3%, UNH -2.2%, RCKT -2% of note.

Insider Action: OBDC NOW see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: No stocks of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• WSJ Lead Story: Gulf States in Race Against Time To Repel Iran’s Onslaught. (WSJ)

• Markets Wrap: Stocks and Bonds sink as Oil surge rattles traders. Bloomberg

• NY Times Business Section Lead Story: Open AI ammends deal with Pentagon. (NYT)

• Bloomberg Lead: Market Shocks Widen as Iran Conflict Deepens. (Bloomberg)

• Thoughtful Money: US at war with Iran. (Podcast)

• Target (TGT) beats but sales fall again. (WSJ)

Economic & Geopolitical:

• Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: 2 of note Williams 9:55 a.m. EST, Kashkari 11:45 a.m. EST

• President Trump’s schedule for today:

  • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EST.

  • Participates in a Greeting with the Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany at 11:00 a.m. EST and then has a Bilateral Meeting at 11:15 a.m. EST and a Bilateral Lunch at 11:45 a.m. EST.

  • Participates in a Meeting with the Secretary of Treasury and the Secretary of Energy at 2:00 p.m. EST.

  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 3:00 p.m. EST.

  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 5:00 p.m. EST.

• Economic Data Out -

  • Weekly

    • Weekly API Petroleum Institute Data is due out at 4:30 p.m. EST.

  • Monthly

    • None of note.

M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 47% from 33% of Equities are Positive, and 36% from 80% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:

  • Citi Property CEO Conference

  • Jefferies Power, Energy, Clean Energy, and Utilities Conference

  • JP Morgan Global Leveraged Finance Conference

  • KeyBanc Emerging Technology Summit

  • MS Energy and Power Conference

  • MS Technology, Media & Telecom Conference

  • Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference

  • Stifel Transportation & Logistics Conference

  • TD Cowen HealthCare Conference

  • Citizens JMP Technology Conference

• Top Analyst, Investor: BRCB KAR MCB OPLN TGT
  of note.

• Shareholder Meetings: ACM CLSK IIIV MITK of note.

• Fireside Chat: None of note.

• FDA Presentation: None of note.

• R&D Day: None of note.

• Meetings:

  • American Academy of Allergy, Asthma and Immunology

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.

• Upgrades: XYZ of note.

• Downgrades: TCPC of note.