Morning Note - 02/23/26: Stocks Lower On Trade Confusion

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

• The S&P 500 finished Friday higher by 0.69% at 6909.51 from Thursday lower by -0.28% at 6861.89.

• The S&P 500 sees support now at 6900 from 6800. Resistance is now at 7000 from 6900.

• S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on 1/27/26.

• Year to date the S&P 500 is higher by 0.93% from 0.24% on Friday’s close.

• Futures are lower this morning by -17.75 (-0.26%) at 6906 on the SP 500 around 6:30 a.m. EST.

• Bond Market is flat today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.075% from 4.073%.

Executive Summary:

• Stocks were higher last week by 1.07% on the S&P 500. We are not out of the “Danger Zone”.

• Bitcoin is still below $70,000 from 2/5.

• Crude moves back below $70 so that was a brief pop above $70.

• US increases Middle East Air Power to highest level since 2003 Iraq Invasion. Action coming on Iraq?

Key Events of Note Today:

• Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.

  • Weekly - None of note

  • Monthly - Factory Orders.

• Fed Speakers of Note today: Waller at 8:00 a.m. EST

• President Trump’s schedule:

  • Participates in Angel Families Remembrance Ceremony at 10:0 a.m. EST.

  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 11:00 a.m. EST.

  • Participates in Executive Time at 1:00 p.m. EST.

• 3 & 6 Month Auction at 11:30 a.m. EST.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close: (Beats > $0.05 AND <$-0.05)

• Beats: FOLD+0.03 of note.

• Misses: None of note.

• Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises:

• IPOs For The Week: None of note.

• New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.

• IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.

• Secondaries Filed Or Priced:

  • ELBM - Upsizes At-The-Market Offering.

• Notes Filed Or Priced:

  • RLI: Form S-3ASR - Debt Securities.

• Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.

• Private Placement: None of note.

• Direct Offering: None of note.

• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.

• Selling Shareholders:

  • HBT: FORM S-3 - 4,000,000 shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholder.

• Private Placements: None of note.

• Mixed Shelf Offerings:

  • TROX: FORM S-3ASR - Mixed Shelf Offering.

  • VOYA: Form S-3ASR - Mixed Shelf.

News After The Close:

• A major snowstorm hit the northeast from Washington D.C. to Boston that will continue through today with things not getting back to normal up mid week.

• OpenAI resets spending expectations; providing a lower number and more defined timeline for its planned spending. (CNBC)

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News: None of note.

Buybacks: None of note.

Dividends Announcements or News:

• Stocks Ex Div Today of note: HESAY CMWAY NOC IFNNF IFNNY PSX ROK MCHP ATO WRB IP MKSI CNA MHGVY AEIS WYNN AMG PRI MUSA BC SEV PATK HCC RDN BTU BCC ANSLF AWR DX NTB DAV OGN BLX IRMD TROX of note.

• Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow of note: None of note.

• STLD increases quarterly cash dividend 6% to $0.53/share from $0.50/share.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:35 a.m. EST)

• Futures S&P 500 -31.75, NASDAQ 100 -158, Dow Jones -227. Europe is lower ex FTSE while Asia is mixed. Bond yield is at 4.075% from 4.069% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas higher. Gold, and Silver are higher with Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $66,348 lower by down $-1064 from $67,3330 higher by 0.54% up $371.

Sector Action:

• Daily Positive Sectors: Communication Services, Material, Consumer Cyclicals and Financials were higher.

• Daily Negative Sectors: Healthcare and Energy were lower.

• One Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Real Estate and Consumer Defensive of note.

• Three-Month Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Healthcare and Financials of note.

• Six-Month Winners: Materials, Healthcare, Communication Services, Industrials and Energy of note.

• Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Communication Services, Industrials, Technology and Financials of note.

• Year to Date Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Consumer Defensive and Real Estate of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Today After the Close:

• Tuesday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beat: FRPT+0.26, EMA +0.13, WGS +0.04, MLTX +0.02 of note.

• Missed: DPZ -0.03 of note.

• Flat: DEA of note.

• Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning - None of note.

• Mixed - None of note.

• Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning - None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

• GapUp: ACLX +77.7%, VNDA +36.1%, MLTX +9.1%, DPZ +5.9%, TXNM +5%, DYN +3.2%, WGS +2.9%, SVRA +2%, HLNE +2%, FNV +2% of note.

• GapDown: NVO -14.5%, IP -5.2%, FRPT -2.7% of note.

Insider Action: MSCI SSTI see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• WSJ Lead Story: Mexico Takes On Cartels. (WSJ)

• Markets Wrap: Stocks fall on trade jitters. Bloomberg

• NY Times Business Section Lead Story: Stuck with Tariffs After Doing Deals With Trump. (NYT)

• Bloomberg Lead: Global Trade Confusion Returns. (Bloomberg)

• Thoughtful Money: Gold & Silver To Go Higher Soon? (Podcast)

Economic & Geopolitical:

• Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: 1 see up top of note

• President Trump’s schedule for today:

  • Participates in Angel Families Remembrance Ceremony at 10:0 a.m. EST.

  • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 11:00 a.m. EST.

  • Participates in Executive Time at 1:00 p.m. EST.

• Economic Data Out -

  • Weekly

    • None of note.

  • Monthly

    • December Factory Orders are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and expected to fall to 0.9% from 2.7%.

M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 77% from 60% of Equities are Positive, and 88% from 96% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:

  • BMO Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conf

• Top Analyst, Investor: JPM MLTX of note.

• Shareholder Meetings: LQR OPGN XLO of note.

• Fireside Chat: None of note.

• FDA Presentation: None of note.

• R&D Day: None of note.

• Meetings:

  • A.G.P. Digital Asset Innovation Summit

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.

• Upgrades: BLK CBRE ICLR SJM of note.

• Downgrades: DE VFC of note.