Morning Note - 02/03/26: Stocks Continue To Bounce Higher, Palantir Beats And All Is Well.

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

• The S&P 500 finished Monday higher by 0.54% at 6976.44 from Friday lower by -0.43% at 6939.03.

• The S&P 500 sees support now at 6900. Resistance is now at 7000.

• S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on Tuesday.

• Year to date the S&P 500 is higher by 1.91% from 1.37% on Friday’s close.

• Futures are higher this morning by +8.50 (+0.12%) at 7011 on the SP 500 around 6:20 a.m. EST.

• Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.287% from 4.257%.

Executive Summary:

• Last week we noted that is was, “Highly unlikely that there was a cut with strong Q3 GDP and the Atlanta Fed’s forecast of 5.4% Q4 GDP”. That favors a selloff and yesterday we rallied by 0.54% so extended downside action could be off the table.

• The case for a Government Shutdown is not over as we still have a partial shut down as of this morning. Hopefully, this is resolved this week.

• This is another big earnings week. Expect volatility to continue.

Key Events of Note Today:

• Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.

  • Weekly - API Petroleum Institute Data of note.

  • Monthly - December JOLTS data is out.

• Fed Speakers of Note today: Fed Richmond President Barkin (8:00 a.m. EST) and Fed Governor Bowman (9:40 a.m. EST)

• President Trump’s schedule:

  • Participates in a meeting with the President of the Republic of Colombia 11:00 a.m. EST.

  • Participates in Signing Time 2:00 p.m. EST.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

• Beats: WWD +0.52, TER +0.42, NJR +0.19, DVA +0.16, FN +0.11, CSWC +0.5, NXPI +0.04, ASH +0.02, PLTR +0.02, DOC +0.01 and SPG +0.01 of note.

• Misses: KFRC -0.04 of note.

• Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises:

• IPOs For The Week: None of note.

• New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.

• IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.

• Secondaries Filed Or Priced:

  • ACXP: Form S-1..750,000 Shares of Common Stock.

  • DFSC: Form F-3.. Up to 608,493 Common Shares.

  • IVDA: Form S-1.. Up to 5,434,782 Shares of Common Stock.

  • IVF: Form S-1.. Up to 9,467,456 Shares of Common Stock.

  • MNTS: Form S-3.. Up to 1,903,871 Shares of Common Stock.

  • MUZE - Closing of $201,250,000 Initial Public Offering, Including Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Overallotment Option.

  • NBRG - Closing of $57.5 Million Initial Public Offering.

  • PCVX - Closing of $632.5 Million Public Offering Including Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares.

• Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.

• Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced:

  • LBRT - Proposed $500 Million Convertible Senior Notes Offering.

• Direct Offering: None of note.

• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.

• Selling Shareholders:

  • NRG: Form S-3ASR - Up to 24,250,000 Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders.

• Private Placements: None of note.

• Mixed Shelf Offerings:

  • J: Filed Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf.

  • OKYO: Form F-3.. $200,000,000 Mixed Shelf.

  • PTHS: Form S-3.. $200,000,000 Mixed Shelf.

News After The Close:

• Palantir (PLTR) beat by $0.02 and the stock has rallied by +11%.

• Elon Musk merged aiX into SpaceX with a value at $250 billion against SpaceX value of $1 trillion.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News: None of note.

Buybacks: None of note.

Dividends Announcements or News:

• Stocks Ex Div Today of note: MET NI SXT BANR SRCE BY SPH CCEC AMAL of note.

• Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow of note: LEN BRO CFG ATR GHC of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:35 a.m. EST)

• Futures S&P 500 +16.50, NASDAQ 100 +129, Dow Jones -4 . Europe is mixed while Asia is higher. Bond yield is at 4.287% from 4.226% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $78,166 higher by 0.2% at +14 from $77,748 higher by 0.79% up +$675 yesterday.

Sector Action:

• Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Defensive, Financials, Industrials and Materials were higher.

• Daily Negative Sectors: Energy, Real Estate and Utilities were lower.

• One Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Real Estate and Consumer Defensive of note.

• Three-Month Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Healthcare and Financials of note.

• Six-Month Winners: Materials, Healthcare, Communication Services, Industrials and Energy of note.

• Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Communication Services, Industrials, Technology and Financials of note.

• Year to Date Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Consumer Defensive and Real Estate of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Today After the Close: (>$10 billion Market Cap)

• Tomorrow Before The Open: (> than $10 billion Market Cap)

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beat: MPC +1.35, IT +0.43, WTW +0.16, MPLX +0,11, PFE +0.09, ADM +0.07, CPRI +0.03, MRK +0.03, ETN +0.02, PEP +0.02 and BLL +0.01.

• Missed: GLXY -0.09, INGR -0.07, GPK -0.06, RES -0,03 of note.

• Still to Report: HESM TWST of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning - DVA FN NJR PLTR TER WWD of note.

• Mixed - None of note.

• Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning - MRK ETN PNR GPK KFRC of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

• GapUp: TER +21.6%, WWD +14.6%, PLTR +11.2%, WULF +11.1%, DVA +10.6%, FLXS +6.9%, PHAR +5.2%, WKEY +4.2%, AXON +3.9%, BALL +3.2%, PLMR +3%, QUBT +2.8%, WTW +2% of note.

• GapDown: MAMO -61.1%, RMBS -11.4%, KFRC -10.9%, SOC -10.1%, FN -5.7%, IT -5.7%, NXPI -5.6%, ADM -5.1%, MTG -4.5%, STM -3%, SPG -2.2%, ATLN -2% of note.

Options Activity: Calls and Puts Top Ten Names Sorted Volume. Highlighted names are new to the most active list. No new outliers of note.

Insider Action: TCBI sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. IP sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• WSJ Lead Story: The Crypto Hoarding Strategy is Unraveling. (WSJ)

• Markets Wrap: Palantir (PLTR) fuels Tech stock gains as gold bounces. (Bloomberg)

• NY Times Business Section Lead Story: The Effect of Tariffs, One Year Into Trump’s Trade Experiment. (NYT)

• Bloomberg Lead: Trump’s Surprise Trade Deal with India Resets Fractured Ties. (Bloomberg)

• Thoughtful Money: This will wreck stocks. (Podcast)

Economic & Geopolitical:

• Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:

  • Fed Speakers are out of the blackout period.

    • Fed Richmond President Tom Barkin speaks at 8:00 a.m. EST.

    • Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at 9:40 a.m. EST.

• President Trump’s schedule for today:

  • Participates in a meeting with the President of the Republic of Colombia at 11:0O a.m. EST

  • Participates in Signing Time at 2:00 p.m. EST.

• Economic Data Out -

  • Weekly

    • API Petroleum Institute Data is due out at 4:30 p.m. EST.

  • Monthly

    • December JOLTS data is out at 10:00 a.m. EST with no prior data due to the government shutdown.

M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 82% from 53% of Equities are Positive, and 8% from 52% of Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:

  • DA Davidson Midwestern Bank Summit

  • Goldman Sachs Saudi CMF Select

  • Goldman Sachs: Energy Symposium Week

  • Oppenheimer Emerging Growth Conference

• Top Analyst, Investor: LODE, PHAR, WDC of note.

• Shareholder Meetings: BEN, DLB, EMR, LEE of note.

• Fireside Chat: None of note.

• FDA Presentation: None of note.

• R&D Day: None of note.

• Meetings: None of note.

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

• Upgrades: ELS PLTR QTWO of note.

• Downgrades: FIGR XOM of note.