Morning Note - 01/30/26: Stocks Lower But Off Lows, Trump to Nominate Kevin Warsh As Fed Chairman

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

• The S&P 500 finished Thursday lower by -0.13% at 6969.01 from Wednesday lower by -0.01% at 6978.03. The low on Thursday, SPX was 6870.80.

• The S&P 500 sees support now at 6900 as it moved back above 6900 with last Thursday’s close. Resistance is now at 7000.

• S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on Tuesday.

• Year to date the S&P 500 is higher by 1.80% from 1.93% on Wednesday’s close.

• Futures are lower this morning by -50.25 (-0.75%) at 6942.50 on the SP 500 around 6:05 a.m. EST.

• Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.257% from 4.253%.

Executive Summary:

• Fed speakers out of the blackout period and first up is Fed Governor Michelle Bowman at 3:00 p.m. EST.

• President Trump hinted last night would announce the next Fed Chairman today and the consensus is Kevin Warsh. This would cement the influence of Stanley Druckenmiller on Trump as his lieutenants Bessent and Warsh would occupy key positions in the Trump Administration.

• Earlier this week we noted that is was, “Highly unlikely that there was a cut with strong Q3 GDP and the Atlanta Fed’s forecast of 5.4% Q4 GDP”. That favors a selloff and here we go. Yesterday was weak and this morning continues that action.

• The case for a Government Shutdown looks to be over as there is an “agreement” but it needs to ne finalized.

• This is a big earnings week. Expect volatility. Last night after the close saw crazy volatility on AAPL and TSLA. This morning, big oil reports.

Key Events of Note Today:

• Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.

  • Weekly - Baker Hughes Rig Count out at 1:00 p.m. EST.

  • Monthly - January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST.

• Fed Speakers of Note today: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman at 3:00 p.m. EST.

• 7-Year Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. EST.

• President Trump’s schedule:

  • Signs Executive Orders at 11:0 a.m. EST

  • Attends a Policy Meeting at 2:00 p.m. EST

  • Announcement of who will be the next Fed Chairman is out on Truth Social and it is Kevin Warsh. Here is his Bio.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

• Beats: SNDK +2.58, CACC +1.34, HIG +0.84,DECK +0.56, LPLA +0.31, WDC +0.20, DLB +0.18, AAPL +0.17, RMD +0.7, SYK +0.7, KLAC +0.06 of note. (> 0.05)

• Misses: PFSI -1.13, BZH -0.43, OLN -0.11, SNDR -0.07, HOLX -0.06, MTX -0.01 of note.

• Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises:

• IPOs For The Week: None of note.

• New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:

  • EZRA - Closing of $2 Million Public Offering.

  • FEAM - Prices $36 Million Upsized and Oversubscribed Public Offering of Common Stock.

  • GTEC - Closing of underwritten public offering.

  • KYIV - Pricing of Secondary Offering of Common Shares.

  • LXRX - Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.

  • OESX - Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.

  • PCVX - Commencement of Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants.

  • RR - Closing of $38.7 Million Private Placement Priced At-The-Market Under Nasdaq Rules.

  • TBN: Form S-3.. 1,524,377 Shares Common Stock.

  • VEON - Pricing of Secondary Offering of Common Shares Held by VEON.

  • VOR: FORM S-3 - 13,876,032 Shares Common Stock.

• IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.

• Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.

• Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.

• Direct Offering: None of note.

• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.

• Selling Shareholders: None of note.

• Private Placements:

  • BMRN - Pricing of Private Offering of Senior Notes and Completion of Syndication of New Senior Secured Term Loan Facility.

  • NUWE - $5 Million Private Placement and Warrant Inducement Transaction, Priced At-The-Market.

• Mixed Shelf Offerings:

  • GEV: Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf.

  • HZO: FORM S-3 - $300,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.

  • NRSN: Form F-3.. $150,000,000 Mixed Shelf.

  • ORRF: FORM S-3 - $200,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.

News After The Close:

• Sandisk (SNDK) killed it on earnings. Amazing.

• Apple (AAPL) beat and raised. Big iPhone demand. (down ~1% though in pre-market)

• U.S. could give HOOD a key role in managing “Trump Accounts” for children.

• Perplexity secures AI cloud agreement with Microsoft (MSFT) Azure.

• RTX awarded a $1.02 billion modification to Army contract.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

• SCHW announces executive transitions; Paul Woolway, CEO of Charles Schwab Bank, will retire on July 1, 2026

Buybacks: None of note.

Dividends Announcements or News:

• Stocks Ex Div Today of note: COST MS TXN BMO EPD O TRGP CASY LNT PAGP PAA AGNC UNM AES AOS ADC NNN TXNM LW CSW AVAL EPR SKT CNXC GEL SMA NWN EFC ORC VRTS of note.

• Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow of note: None of note.

• HWC increases quarterly cash dividend 11.1% to $0.50 per share from $0.45 per share.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:35 a.m. EST)

• Futures S&P 500 -26, NASDAQ 100 -131, Dow Jones -185. Europe is higher while Asia is lower. Bond yield is at 4.253% from 4.245% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $82,809 lower by -1.36% by $1113.48 from $87,831 lower by -1.52% by $-1,351.

Sector Action:

• Daily Positive Sectors: Communication Services, Real Estate, Energy and Financials were higher.

• Daily Negative Sectors: Technology, Materials and Consumer Cyclicals were lower.

• One Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Real Estate and Consumer Defensive of note.

• Three-Month Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Healthcare and Financials of note.

• Six-Month Winners: Materials, Healthcare, Communication Services, Industrials and Energy of note.

• Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Communication Services, Industrials, Technology and Financials of note.

• Year to Date Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Consumer Defensive and Real Estate of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Today After the Close: None of note

• Monday Before The Open: DIS, APTV, IDXX, RVTY, TSN, TWST, NSSC, ARLP, HESM, SEED

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Still to Report: MA, NSC, OSIS, RCL of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning - SNDK AAPL of note.

• Mixed - None of note.

• Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning - EMN of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

• GapUp: GCL +65.4%, SNDK +20.3%, DECK +14%, RHI +10.7%, TBN +6%, RMD +4.8%, USAR +3.9%, VZ +3.9%, AJG +3.5%, ABCB +3.3%, VOR +2.3%, MNOV +2.3%, SIGI +2.3%, TSLA +2.2%, SYK +2.1%, of note.

• GapDown: BNAI -35.9%, PFSI -26.4%, SNDR -18.4%, MXL -14.6%, CVCO -12.6%, APPF -11.2%, OLN -10%, BZH -9.6%, KLAC -8.5%, ALV -7.4%, LXRX -6.9%, SSRM -6.8%, KYIV -6.1%, OR -5.8%, RR -4.2%, TBBK -4%, ARCB -3.9%, VEON -3.6%, WDC -3%, PZG -2.9%, VOYG -2.8%, DXC -2.8%, RKLB -2.7%, SKYW -2.5%, KRMD -2.4%, OSIS -2.4%, AON -2.3%, LPLA -2.2%, XOM -2.2%, SEZL -2.1%, of note.

Options Activity: Calls and Puts Top Ten Names Sorted Volume. Highlighted names are new to the most active list. No new outliers of note.

Insider Action: None see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: USAR

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• WSJ Lead Story: Gold Slides On Dollar Strength. (WSJ)

• Markets Wrap: . (Bloomberg)

• NY Times Business Section Lead Story: US Trade Deficit Widens. (NYT)

• Bloomberg Lead: Exxon Beats Estimates. (Bloomberg)

• Thoughtful Money: $500 Silver By Summer? (Podcast)

Economic & Geopolitical:

• Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:

  • Fed Speakers are out of the blackout period.

    • Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at 3:00 p.m. EST.

• President Trump’s schedule for today:

  • Signs Executive Orders at 11:0 a.m. EST

  • Attends a Policy Meeting at 2:00 p.m. EST

  • Announcement of who will be the next Fed Chairman?

• Economic Data Out -

  • Weekly

    • Baker Hughes Rig Count out at 1:00 p.m. EST.

  • Monthly

    • January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and expected to stay at 54.

M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 76% from 73% of Equities are Positive, and 56% from 44% of Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:

  • TD Cowen’s Global Mining Conference

• Top Analyst, Investor: AQST BKD CHD of note.

• Shareholder Meetings: AGAE of note.

• Fireside Chat: None of note.

• FDA Presentation: None of note.

• R&D Day: None of note.

• Meetings:

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas: Payments of the Future

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.

• Upgrades: GEV GMED RPRX SPOT VLY of note.

• Downgrades: None of note.