Morning Note - 01/12/26: Stocks Lower As Trump and DOJ Take on Chairman Powell Who Says Not So Fast

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

• The S&P 500 finished Friday higher by 0.65% from Thursday higher by 0.01% at 6921.46.

• The S&P 500 sees support now at 6900 as it moved back above 6900 with last Monday’s close. Resistance is now at 7000.

• S&P 500 hit its second All-Time Closing High of 2026 on Friday.

• Year to date the S&P 500 finished up by 1.76% from 1.12% on Friday’s close.

• Futures are lower this morning by -46.75 (-0.67%) at 6960.50 on the SP 500 around 6:05 a.m. EST.

• Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.191% from 4.187%.

Executive Summary:

• Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs did not happen on Friday. Watch for the next rumor of release date.

• Federal Reserve Chairman Powell says he is under criminal investigation from the Department of Justice. This is a big mistake from the administration and will be walked back sooner than later just like he walked back comments about Intel’s CEO month ago.

• CPI due tomorrow. Watch Bonds today for any clues about tomorrow’s release.

Key Events of Note Today:

• Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.

  • Weekly - None of note.

  • Monthly - None of note.

• Fed Speakers of Note today: Bostic, Barkin, Williams.

• G7 Finance Minister meet.

• Auctions Today: 3 & 6 Month at 11:30 a.m. EST as well as 3-Year Note then, 10-Year at 1:00 p.m. EST.

• President Trump schedule:

  • Meets with the Secretary of State

  • Meets with Archbishop Coakley.

  • Participates in Signing Time.

  • Meets with CEO of Tunnel to Towers Foundation.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

• Beats: None of note.

• Misses: None of note.

• Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises:

• IPOs For The Week: None of note.

• New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.

• IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.

• Secondaries Filed or Priced:

  • ALUR: Form S-3..Up to 5,988,024 Shares of Common Stock.

  • BNRG: FORM F-3 - Up to 12,809,626 Ordinary Shares.

  • CGC: FORM S-3 - 52,279,795 Common Shares.

  • CRMT: Form S-1.. 937,487 Shares of Common Stock Underlying Warrants.

  • HCWB: Form S-1.. Resale of up to 3,400,033 Shares of Common Stock.

  • INBS: Form S-3..6,896,550 Shares of Common Stock.

  • PSTV: FORM S-1 - 22,321,429 Units, Each Consisting of One Share of Common Stock and One Warrant to Purchase One Share of Common Stock.

  • SEV: Form S-1.. Up to 3,752,759 Shares of Class B Common Stock.

  • VSEE: Form S-1.. Up to 8,883,249 Shares of Common Stock.

• Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.

• Convertibles Filed or Priced: None of note.

• Direct Offering: None of note.

• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.

• Selling Shareholders:

  • NRGV: Form S-3.. Up to 33,251,333 shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholder Issuable Upon Conversion of Obligations Under Convertible Debentures.

  • PDYN: FORM S-3 - 8,365,446 Shares Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders.

  • SPCE: Form S-3..68,061,371 shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders.

• Private Placements: None of note.

• Mixed Shelf Offerings:

  • CELC: Form S-3ASR - Mixed Shelf.

  • CLGN: FORM F-3 - $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.

  • IMMX: Form S-3 Mixed Shelf.

  • THAR: Form S-3.. Mixed Shelf.

  • ZDAI: Form F-3.. $150,000,000 Mixed Shelf.

News After The Close:

• Jack in the Box (JACK) announces $105 million debt repayment.

• MSG Sports (MSGS) ticks lower as company offers voluntary buyouts to a number of its employees.

• Family sues Tesla (TSLA) after autopilot fails to detect motorcycle.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

• TREE promotes Ian Smith to Chief Operating Officer.

• WYNN announces that Craig Fullalove will succeed Julie Cameron-Doe as CFO.

• BLFS Karen Foster, Chief Quality and Operations Officer, notified co of her decision to retire, effective March 31, 2026.

• SNCY names Stephen Coley as Chief Operating Officer.

• Ryan Stork will be stepping down from his role as Chief Operating Officer of KKR, effective immediately.

Buybacks: None of note.

Dividends Announcements or News:

• Stocks Ex Div Today of note: T VZ UDR HRL LNC ORLA GNL UVV of note.

• Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow day of note: ACN DGX of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:30 a.m. EST)

• Futures S&P 500 -38, NASDAQ 100 -202, Dow Jones -350. Europe is lower ex Germany while Asia is high. Bond yield is at 4.195% from 4.183% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas higher. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $90,698 from $90,296 higher by +0.24% which is at $+218.

Sector Action:

• Daily Positive Sectors: All others were higher.

• Daily Negative Sectors: Healthcare and Financials were lower.

• One Month Winners: Healthcare Services, Utilities, Technology, Industrials, Materials and Consumer Defensive of note.

• Three-Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Materials, Utilities and Healthcare of note.

• Six-Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Industrials and Consumer Cyclicals of note.

• Twelve-Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Financials, Consumer Cyclical, and Industrials of note.

• Year to Date Winners: Communication Services, Materials, Technology, Financials, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Today After the Close: None of note.

• Tomorrow Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beats: None of note.

• Misses: None of note.

• Flat: None of note.

• Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning - BOOT of note.

• Mixed - None of note.

• Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning - OLN of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

• GapUp: BDSX +31.7%, ANPA +31.6%, SNCY +17.1%, DAWN +12.2%, HYFT +11.4%, ZNTL +11%, RXST +10.4%, TEM +10.2%, RGNX +9.3%, BEAM +7.5%, FHTX +6.6%, TEVA +6.4%, BNTC +4.7%, ESPR +4.4%, IMMX +3.3%, THAR +3.2%, ALGT +3.2%, KURA +2.9%, XPEV +2.8%, MBX +2.8%, GH +2.6%, LULU +2.4%, ZYME +2.2%, ASND +2%of note.

• GapDown: STOK -6.6%, EXEL -4.6%, PDYN -4.1%, CELC -3.3%, ALNY -2.3% of note.

Options Activity: Calls and Puts Top Ten Names Sorted Volume. Highlighted names are new to the most active list. No new outliers of note.

Insider Action: None see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. TPVG sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: AVO YYAI

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• Bloomberg Lead Story: Fed Served With DOJ Subpoenas; Powell Vows to Stand Firm. (Bloomberg)

• WSJ Lead Story: Trump’s Investigation of Powell is warning to next Fed Chairman. (WSJ)

• NY Times Business Section Lead Story: 23,000 words with President Trump in an interview. (NYT)

• Markets Wrap: Stock, Dollar drop on Fed fears as Gold hits high. (Bloomberg)

Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.

Economic & Geopolitical:

• Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:

  • Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks at 12:30 p.m. EST.

  • Federal Reserve Richmond President Tom Barkin speaks at 12:45 p.m. EST.

  • Federal Reserve New York President John Williams speaks at 6:00 p.m. EST.

• President Trump’s schedule for today:

  • Meets with the Secretary of State at 10:30 a.m. EST.

  • Meets with Archbishop Coakley at 1:30 p.m. EST.

  • Participates in Signing Time at 3:30 p.m. EST.

  • Meets with CEO of Tunnel to Towers Foundation at 4:00 p.m. EST.

• Economic Data Out -

  • Weekly

    • None of note.

  • Monthly

    • None of note

M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 100% of Equities are Positive, and 54% of Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:

  • Bernstein Utility Conference

  • JP Morgan Healthcare Conference

• Top Analyst, Investor: BBNX, GM

• Shareholder Meetings: AVDL, ECDA, NCRA, ZS

• Fireside Chat: None of note.

• FDA Presentation: None of note.

• R&D Day: None of note.

• Meetings:

  • ICR Conference

  • NRF’26 Retail‘s Big Show

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.

• Upgrades: ABNB CMCSA CRNX TREX VIST of note.

• Downgrades: GTLB JXN OMF RIVN SLM of note.