Morning Note - 01/08/26: Stocks Continue Yesterday Afternoon's Selling

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

• The S&P 500 finished Wednesday lower by -0.34% at 6920.63 from Tuesday higher by 0.62% at 6944.22.

• S&P 500 hit its first All-Time Closing High of 2026 on Tuesday.

• Futures are lower this morning by -12.75 (-0.18%) at 6950.50 on the SP 500 around 6:20 a.m. EST.

• Year to date the S&P 500 finished up by 1.11% from 1.45% on Friday’s close.

Executive Summary:

• Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.163% from 4.144%.

• The S&P 500 sees support now at 6900 as it moved back above 6900 with Monday’s close. Resistance is now at 7000.

Key Events of Note Today:

• Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.

  • Weekly - Jobless Claims and Natural Gas Inventories are due out of note.

  • Monthly - Trade Balance of note.

• Fed Speakers of Note today: None of note.

• President Trump schedule:

  • Intelligence Briefing at 11:00 a.m. EST

  • Policy Meeting at 5:30 p.m. EST

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

• Beats: STZ+0.43, APLD +0.11 and AZZ +0.05 of note.

• Misses: PSMT -0.06, JEF -0.01 of note.

• Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises:

• IPOs For The Week: None of note.

• New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.

• IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.

• Secondaries Filed or Priced:

  • AEMD: FORM S-1 - 2,031,024 Shares of Common Stock.

  • ALMS - Pricing of Upsized Public Offering of Common Stock.

  • ARWR - Prices Upsized Offerings of Convertible Senior Notes, Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants.

  • CBIO: Form S-1.. 19,710,257 Shares.

  • DRUG - Pricing of Upsized US$175 Million Public Offering of Common Stock.

  • GLUE - Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants.

  • GNLX - Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.

  • JCAP - Pricing of Secondary Public Offering and Concurrent Share Repurchase.

  • PHAT - Pricing of $130 Million Public Offering of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants.

• Notes Filed Or Priced:

  • FUN - Pricing of $1.0 Billion of 8.625% Senior Notes Due 2032.

  • VNO - Prices Public Offering of $500 Million of 7-Year Bonds.

• Convertibles Filed or Priced:

  • ARWR - Prices Upsized Offerings of Convertible Senior Notes, Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants.

  • CSIQ - PROPOSED OFFERING OF US$200 MILLION CONVERTIBLE SENIOR NOTES DUE 2031.

  • FUBO Zero Repurchases of Its Convertible Senior Notes Due 2029.

• Direct Offering: None of note.

• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.

• Selling Shareholders: None of note.

• Private Placements:

  • CLMT - Pricing of $405 Million Upsized Private Placement of 9.75% Senior Notes due 2031.

• Mixed Shelf Offerings:

  • AMOD: Form S-3.. $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf.

  • PR: Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf.

News After The Close:

• Costco (COST) reports December adjusted comparable sales of +6.2%.

• Eli Lilly (LLY) confirms that it and Ventyx Biosciences (VTYX) entered into a definitive agreement for Lilly to acquire Ventyx; Lilly will acquire the company for $14/share in an all-cash transaction.

• Revolution Medicines (RVMD) -11% lower after hours after AbbVie (ABBV) says it’s not in talks to purchase RVMD.

• LMT delivers 191 F-35s in 2025, surpassing its previous delivery record of 142 jets.

• JP Morgan’s (JPM) Chase Unit confirms it will become new issuer of Apple (AAPL) Card.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

• HR announces the appointment of Daniel Gabbay as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

• TOL announces that Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Douglas Yearley, Jr. will be transitioning to role of Executive Chairman of the Board on March 30, 2026; Company selects Karl K. Mistry, Executive Vice President to succeed Mr. Yearley.

Buybacks: None of note.

Dividends Announcements or News:

• Stocks Ex Div Today of note: TIGO CPB MAIN KAI ELME of note.

• Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow day of note: ORCL MA INTU TD MRVL GEHC GIS DRI TOL KRG AEO BRC BKU AAP

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:30 a.m. EST)

• Futures S&P 500 -13, NASDAQ 100 -68, Dow Jones -169 . Europe is lower while Asia is lower ex Australia. Bond yield is at 4.163% from 4.144% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $89,718 from $92,013 lower by -1.34% which is at $-1218.

Sector Action:

• Daily Positive Sectors: Materials, Healthcare, Industrials, Technology and Real Estate were higher.

• Daily Negative Sectors: Energy and Communication Services were lower.

• One Month Winners: Healthcare Services, Utilities, Technology, Industrials, Materials and Consumer Defensive of note.

• Three-Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Materials, Utilities and Healthcare of note.

• Six-Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Industrials and Consumer Cyclicals of note.

• Twelve-Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Financials, Consumer Cyclical, and Industrials of note.

• Year to Date Winners: Communication Services, Materials, Technology, Financials, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Today After the Close:

• Tomorrow Before The Open: None of note.

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beats: CMC +0.27, AYI +0.10, SNX +0.10, LNN +0.07, NEOG +0.04, HELE +0.03, SMPL +0.03 of note.

• Misses: RPM -0.21 of note.

• Flat: None of note.

• Still to Report: ACI, APOG, UNF of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: This Morning - MCHP of note.

• Mixed - ANGO of note.

• Negative or Mixed Guidance: This Morning - None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

• GapUp: ACON +24%, GMED +9.1%, NOC +7.5%, LMT +6.8%, LHX +6.4%, APLD +6.1%, GD +5.4%, PHAR +4.8%, UUUU +4.7%, RTX +4.6%, LENZ +3.7%, HII +3.3%, AZZ +2.8%, ANGI +2.6%, DVLT +2.2%, SMTI +2.1%, AREN +2%, STZ +2% of note.

• GapDown: IMRX -22.6%, PHAT -13.7%, TFX -10.7%, FC -10.2%, RVMD -8.6%, FFAI -4.9%, CRNT -4.6%, CSIQ -4.2%, FSM -3.2%, PSMT -3.2%, RCUS -3%, DRUG -2.6%, SHEL -2.2%, SERA -2.1% of note.

Options Activity: Calls and Puts Top Ten Names Sorted Volume. Highlighted names are new to the most active list. No new outliers of note.

Insider Action: AVO WRB see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: none

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• Bloomberg Lead Story: China to Approve Nvidia’s H200 Chip as Soon as Q1. (Bloomberg)

• WSJ Lead Story: Cuba Already On The Brink. (WSJ)

• NY Times Business Section Lead Story: Oil Firms Say Venezuela Owes Them Billions. (NYT)

• Markets Wrap: Tech Pulls Stocks Lower. (Bloomberg)

Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.

Economic & Geopolitical:

• Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: None of note.

• President Trump’s schedule for today:

  • Participates in the Intelligence Briefing at 11:00 a.m. EST.

  • Policy Meeting at 5:30 p.m. EST.

• Economic Data Out -

  • Weekly

    • Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST.

    • Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EST.

  • Monthly

    • October Trade Balance is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and expected to come in at $-61.3 billion from $-59.6 billion.

M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 97% from 100% of Equities are Positive, and 84% from 60% of Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:

  • Davidson Northeast Private Equity Conference

  • Evercore Leading the Charge Power & Utility Conference

  • GS European Utilities Investor Relations Day

  • Needham Growth Conference

• Top Analyst, Investor: NEWT WBTN

• Shareholder Meetings: RFL

• Fireside Chat: None of note.

• FDA Presentation: None of note.

• R&D Day: None of note.

• Meetings:

  • ASCO

  • CES

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.

• Upgrades: COIN CB EHAB FTRE GAP GNRC YUM of note.

• Downgrades: AA EEFT IOBT SGML VSTS of note.