Morning Note - 01/07/26: Stocks Mixed In Front of Lots of Economic Data Today

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

• The S&P 500 finished Tuesday higher by 0.62% at 6944.22 from Monday higher by 0.64% at 6902.05.

• S&P 500 hit its first All-Time Closing High of 2026 yesterday.

• Futures are lower this morning by -10 (-0.14%) at 6977.75 on the SP 500 around 6:10 a.m. EST.

• Year to date the S&P 500 finished up by 1.45% from 0.83% on Friday’s close.

Executive Summary:

• Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.144% from 4.181%.

• The S&P 500 sees support now at 6900 as it moved back above 6900 with Monday’s close. Resistance is now at 7000.

• The idea of the U.S. attacking Greenland is just that, an idea. Never going to happen. This is noise.

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Fell -10% after dropping -5% last week.

Key Events of Note Today:

• Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.

  • Weekly - Crude Oil Inventories and MBA Mortgage Applications are due out of note.

  • Monthly - ADP Payroll, Factory Orders and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index of note.

• Fed Speakers of Note today: Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman at 4:10 p.m. EST.

• President Trump schedule:

  • Signs Executive Orders at 2:30 p.m. EST.

  • Press Briefing at 11:00 a.m. EST with Karoline Leavitt.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

• Beats: AIR +0.15 and PENG +0.05 of note.

• Misses: None of note.

• Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises:

• IPOs For The Week: None of note.

• New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.

• IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.

• Secondaries Filed or Priced:

  • DRUG announces launch of $100 million public offering of common shares.

  • PRAX files for proposed public offering of its common stock and, in lieu of common stock to certain investors, pre-funded warrants to purchase shares of common stock.

  • ALMS to commence public offering of $175.0 million shares of common stock.

• Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.

• Convertibles Filed or Priced: None of note.

• Direct Offering: None of note.

• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.

• Selling Shareholders: None of note.

• Private Placements:

  • SKT to offer $200 million of its Exchangeable Senior Notes in a private placement

• Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.

News After The Close:

• Mobileye Global (MBLY) enters definitive agreement to acquire Mentee Robotics Ltd for total consideration of $900 million.

• Total volume traded across CBOE four options exchanges was 4.6 billion contracts in 2025, with an ADV of 18.4 million contracts traded, the sixth consecutive record-breaking year.

• Grupo Aeroportuario Del Sureste (ASR) announces that passenger traffic for December 2025 reached a total of 6.7 million passengers, representing an increase of 0.4% compared to December 2024.

• Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (PAC) reports a passenger traffic increase in December 2025 of 0.1% compared to 2024.

• Embraer SA (EMBJ) reports 91 aircraft delivered in the fourth quarter.

• Plug Power (PLUG) discloses it entered into a release event license agreement with Walmart (WMT).

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

• TTEK names Roger Argus as CEO, effective February 19.

• DRS announces appointment of Sally Wallace as Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer.

• CAT CEO, D. James Umpleby III will retire as Executive Chairman effective April 1; CEO Joseph Creed will assume the role of Chairman.

• CBK announces the promotion of Justin R. Payne to Executive Vice President and Chief Information Officer.

Buybacks: None of note.

Dividends Announcements or News:

• Stocks Ex Div Today of note: EIX ACM GAP GNTX HLIO OPRA

• Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow day of note: TIGO CPB MAIN KAI ELME of note.

• MMS increases quarterly cash dividend 10% to $0.33 per share from $0.30 per share.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:30 a.m. EST)

• Futures S&P 500 -3, NASDAQ 100 -44, Dow Jones +28, Russell 2000 -. Europe is higher ex FTSE while Asia is lower ex Australia. Bond yield is at 4.144% from 4.177% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas higher. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $92,013 from $93,889 lower by -0.54% which is at $-500.

Sector Action:

• Daily Positive Sectors: Materials, Healthcare, Industrials, Technology and Real Estate were higher.

• Daily Negative Sectors: Energy and Communication Services were lower.

• One Month Winners: Healthcare Services, Utilities, Technology, Industrials, Materials and Consumer Defensive of note.

• Three-Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Materials, Utilities and Healthcare of note.

• Six-Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Industrials and Consumer Cyclicals of note.

• Twelve-Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Financials, Consumer Cyclical, and Industrials of note.

• Year to Date Winners: Communication Services, Materials, Technology, Financials, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Today After the Close:

• Tomorrow Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beats: CALM +0.18, MSM +0.04 of note.

• Misses: None of note.

• Flat: None of note.

• Still to Report: ACI, APOG, UNF of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: This Morning - MCHP of note.

• Mixed - ANGO of note.

• Negative or Mixed Guidance: This Morning - None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

• GapUp: VTYX +67.4%, MBLY +10.4%, GLUE +9.7%, UMC +8.5%, CMPS +6%, PENG +5.3%, EGHT +5.2%, AIR +4.5%, PSQH +4.5%, MSTR +4.3%, HIVE +3.9%, RZLT +3.7%, GME +3.5%, FFAI +3.2%, LGIH +2.6%, CRNX +2.5%, CALM +2.4%, HCM +2% of note.

• GapDown: APOG -13.1%, DRUG -2.4%, PLUG -1.7%, PRAX -1.5%, EMBJ -1% of note.

Options Activity: Calls and Puts Top Ten Names Sorted Volume. Highlighted names are new to the most active list. No new outliers of note.

Insider Action: None sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: AVO

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• Bloomberg Lead Story: Trump Says Venezuela to Send Oil Worth $2.8 Billion to the U.S. (Bloomberg)

• WSJ Lead Story: The Growler Was Used to Capture Maduro Through Its Signal Jamming. (WSJ)

• NY Times Business Section Lead Story: In China, a Debate About Political Power Ignites, After Maduro’s Capture. (NYT)

• Markets Wrap: Stocks Headed For First Drop As Bond Yields Fall. (Bloomberg)

• Rubio says US to buy Greenland, no military action. (WSJ)

• Stocks making the biggest premarket moves. (CNBC)

Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.

Economic & Geopolitical:

• Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:

  • Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman at 4:10 p.m. EST.

• President Trump’s schedule for today:

  • Press Briefing at 11:00 a.m. EST with Karoline Leavitt.

  • Signs Executive Orders at 2:30 p.m. EST.

• Economic Data Out -

  • Weekly

    • Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EST.

  • Monthly

    • December ADP Employment Report is due out at 8:15 a.m. EST and is expected to improve to 45,000 from -32,000.

    • November Factory Orders are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and are expected to drop -1.0%.

    • December ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is also out at 10 and expected to to fall to 52.20% from 52.60%.

M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 100% from 90% of Equities are Positive, and 60% from 68% of Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:

  • GS Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference

  • Raymond James Deer Valley Summit

  • Raymond James Non-Bank Lenders Symposium

• Top Analyst, Investor: CMPS IMRX OMER VNDA

• Shareholder Meetings: GBX

• Fireside Chat: None of note.

• FDA Presentation: None of note.

• R&D Day: None of note.

• Meetings:

  • CES

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.

• Upgrades: BK FBNC REGN of note.

• Downgrades: ASTS BJ BXSL DECK FIHL WRB of note.